(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 322: EU has avoided energy collapse. But is the crisis over? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-01-10 The Russians are left with Wagner disinformation continuing with claims of a pyrrhic victory at Soledar, near Bakhmut, as the weather remains cold in the Area of Operation. If Putin gets removed, only then will it be Russia’s “Vietnam”. Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value, the capture of Soledar would not portend an immediate encirclement of Bakhmut. Control of Soledar will not necessarily allow Russian forces to exert control over critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Bakhmut, as ISW has previously assessed.[21] Key Takeaways Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District and Russian forces in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk oblasts during Russia's significant losses in September 2022, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces. The news of Lapin’s appointment is generating further schisms in the already-fragmented pro-war Russian information space. Igor Girkin heavily implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office, suggesting that a willingness to reduce self-censorship and directly criticize Putin may be growing among some milbloggers. The Ukrainian General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10, an indicator of possible Russian preparations for an offensive in northern Ukraine, though ISW assesses this course of action remains unlikely at this time. Ukrainian forces continued to make gains along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline and made gains around Soledar but have not captured the settlement, despite false claims. The Kremlin continues to deny that Russian authorities are preparing for another wave of partial mobilization. Russian occupation authorities are struggling to contain an effective partisan movement in occupied territories. www.understandingwar.org/… Russian troops have struck the Donetsk region’s city of Soledar 86 times over the past day. The relevant statement was made by Spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhii Cherevatyi during a nationwide telethon, an Ukrinform correspondent reports. “Over the past day, they [Russian troops – Ed.] have struck Soledar with different artillery pieces 86 times. Thus, the situation is now very challenging there, the most challenging on the eastern front,” Cherevatyi said. www.ukrinform.net/... The claim that Soledar had fallen to soldiers-for-hire working for Wagner Group could not be verified. Ukraine’s defense ministry said on Twitter just before midnight local time that Russia was still trying to capture the town. The assault is part of Russia’s broader push in the area around the city of Bakhmut that Moscow sees as important to achieving its goal of occupying all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. If true, the fall of Soledar, a relatively small municipality, would be Russia’s first significant victory in months, since Ukraine regained momentum with its capture of the Kharkiv region in September and then the city of Kherson in November, successes of far greater magnitude that changed the course of the war. www.nytimes.com/... x Prigozhin seen in one of the salt mine sin #Soledar. He is quoted as saying, "This was all done by PMC Wagner with no other help." If you doubted there was a rift between the RUS MoD and Wagner/Putin, then this is all the proof you need.#OSINT#UkraineWar#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/deiMWIwT3T — OSINT (Uri) (@UKikaski) January 10, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Wagner Group forces made further gains in Soledar on January 10. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Serhiy Cherevaty reported that the Wagner Group has concentrated its most capable (likely special operations) forces in Soledar as of January 10.[32] The Wagner Group likely hopes to build on recent marginal tactical gains by committing more elite assets to the area. Geolocated footage posted on January 9 shows Wagner Group forces fighting in central Soledar.[33] A Wagner Group-affiliated Telegram group posted additional footage on January 10 of Wagner Group forces near the city administration building in central Soledar and claimed that the Wagner Group is working to consolidate positions in the area.[34] Certain Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group forces have moved into the western parts of Soledar and that Ukrainian troops have begun withdrawing from the settlement en masse.[35] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied these claims and stated that Ukrainian troops are still fighting fiercely for Soledar.[36] Russian milbloggers also claimed that the Wagner Group is clearing Pidhorodne (just southwest of Soledar) and are moving on Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued fighting in other settlements near Soledar, including Bilohorivka and Pidhorodne.[38] www.understandingwar.org/... x The occupying troops did not control Soledar and suffered heavy losses.#Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineWarNews #Soledar #Donetsk #ATTACK https://t.co/EKtLRXV83e — The Odessa Journal 🖋⚓ (@Odessa_Journal) January 10, 2023 www.understandingwar.org/... – Russian society is amoral. Of course, they don’t want war, but people behave submissively, passively and don’t want to engage in open conflict with the state. Outside in the winter rain, people are strolling along the illuminated Nikolskaya Street toward Red Square, past vendors and an ice-skating rink. Up on the second floor of an 18th century building, away from the hustle and bustle, Lev Gudkov is sitting at his desk, showing tables on his computer screen. The pollster can judge how Russians think in a way that few others can. The 76-year-old is the scientific director of the Levada Center, the only independently operating opinion research institute in Russia. When Gudkov surveyed the mood among people in Russia shortly after the war began, it was a watershed moment, he says. At the time, 68 percent of respondents supported the attack on Ukraine. Ten months later, the picture he paints is even bleaker. Lev Gudkov, born in Moscow on December 6, 1946, is a sociologist and pollster at Russia’s only independent polling institute, the Levada Center. The sociologist Yuri Levada first published studies on how people think and feel in the Soviet Union, at that time for the state institute VCIOM. Gudkov was his employee. In 2003, together with other researchers, they founded their own institute. After Levada's death in 2006, Gudkov was elected its head; he led the institute for 15 years. Now he is the organization’s deputy head and scientific director. In 2016, the Russian authorities classified the Levada Center as a so-called "foreign agent.” DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Gudkov, President Vladimir Putin recently said that "the special operation proceeding apace, everything is stable." To what extent are Russians subscribing to that narrative, especially following the Russian army's setbacks in Kharkiv and Kherson? Gudkov: State propaganda is still managing to forge a broad consensus. Most recently, the majority of respondents, 53 percent, believed that the military operation in Ukraine has been a success. These are mainly people who watch state television and have little access to the internet, older Russians. But there is also another, smaller element of society, one-third of respondents, who say the operation has been unsuccessful. DER SPIEGEL: What reasons do people give for their skepticism? Gudkov: They say the operation is taking too long, that no progress has been made. People worry almost exclusively about their own country’s military defeat, the chaos in the army, the incompetence of the leadership. For years, they were told that the Russian army was the strongest and had miracle weapons, but that myth has evaporated. DER SPIEGEL: The war itself isn’t being questioned. Gudkov: No, the attacks on Ukraine and the massacres play no role. The Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians. Almost no one here talks about the fact that people are being killed in Ukraine. www.spiegel.de/... x Thank you, Julia, for the footage. I can't work out if these desperate comrades are just trying to conceal their desperation because the 4-day special operation has gone awry and there's no way out OR they have been so well brainwashed that they believe the💩 — Vaklav Haflis🌱🇨🇿🇺🇦🇵🇱🇪🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺 (@gree_nor) January 10, 2023 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/10/2146512/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-322-EU-has-avoided-energy-collapse-But-is-the-crisis-over Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/