(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine update: Why tiny little Novoselivs’ke is so important to both Ukraine and Russia [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-01-22 Two months ago, I wrote this overview of the Ukrainian front lines. The macro view remains mostly unchanged, and I’d be shocked if more than a hundred square kilometers of net territory has changed hands. Russia has advance a little around Bakhmut, and Ukraine has advanced a little around Kreminna and Svatove. Russia’s weird push in Zaporizhzhia oblast is certainly new, situated between the “Toward Melitopol” and “Pavlivka/Vuhledar” flags. I had forgotten about Vuhledar. Digging around a little confirms it, other than for some minor positional battles, Russia appears to have surrendered that approach after taking Pavlivka at horrendous cost. Vuhledar sits on higher ground, and Russia couldn’t overcome it. I’ll need to update this map next time I talk about the bigger picture. What hasn’t changed is that Ukraine’s sole offensive focus remains in the Kreminna and Svatove directions. I wrote about Ukraine’s options back in early December, and as of now, it’s those northern approaches that are getting the attention. Potential avenues of Ukrainian advance. As of now, Ukraine is focusing its offensive actions around Svatove and Kreminna There is an important strategic purpose to Kreminna/Svatove/Starobilsk. Kreminna cuts supplies to Svatove from the south, and allows Ukrainian forces to threaten Svatove from that direction. Svatove is the gateway to Starobilsk. Starobilsk is the rail and truck hub of supplies from Belgorod, Russia, feeding Russia’s war machine in Ukraine. Without Starobilsk, Russia can still supply their forces from the east, but it stresses an already stressed logistical system, and makes it more vulnerable to Ukrainian sabotage and attack. While some may question Belgorod’s remaining importance in Russia’s existing logistical chain, nothing confirms it more than Ukraine’s focus on Svatove and Kreminna—and Russia’s fierce defense of it. Both sides know this matters. And in the last few days, things have shifted a bit. On January 16, Ukraine liberated Novoselivs’ke. Some Ukrainian accounts were ecstatic in celebration. Russians laughed it off, the way we’ve laughed off some of Russia’s gains around Bakhmut. How could it be of any real value? Its pre-war population was 738 people. It was barely a village. Ukrainian occupied Novoselivs’ke, next door to Kuzemivka to its east Look at it, it’s eight blocks! Who cares who holds it! Yet this seemingly insignificant plot of rubble has gone back and forth between Russia and Ukraine several times since last October. Ukraine has fought bitterly for it, and Russia has responded in kind, stubbornly refusing to surrender it. So why does it matter? Look at a topographical map: Novoselivs’ke in the red border, Kuzemivka in a valley to its east Novoselivs’ke sits on high ground overlooking Kuzemivka. Indeed, that rail line and station is reportedly in Ukrainian hands, and the friendlies can rain tank, mortar, and artillery fire down into the valley. Novoselivs’ke outlined in pink, Kuzemivka to the east in low-lying valley Russian forces have reportedly retreated from western Kuzemivka, and are being reinforced at prepared defensive positions on the town’s eastern edge. So the next question, logically, is “why do we care about Kuzemivka”? Let’s pull out a little… The red marker is on Novoselivs’ke. Kuzemivka to its right (to the east). Svatove, the big goal, is on the bottom-right of the map. Liberating Kuzemivka has three four benefits: It opens up the approach to the northeast, toward Nauhol’ne and Nyzhnia Duvanka 18 kilometers away (or around 11 miles). Ukraine needs to move up that route in order to cut off Svatove’s northern supply route, and to help surround Svatove from the north. As Russian nationalist war correspondent WarGonzo noted , “ [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/22/2148632/-Ukraine-update-Why-tiny-little-Novoselivs-ke-is-so-important-to-both-Ukraine-and-Russia Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/