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Virginia State Senate Districts (2023): SD 16, SD 12, SD 4 [1]

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Date: 2023-01-24  

Today, I am looking at three more VA senate districts: SD 16, SD 12, and SD 4. SD 16 and SD 12 are both Republican-held districts in the Greater Richmond area, while SD 4 is a Democratic-held district located in the southwestern part of the state.

Virginia Senate District 16

VA SD 16 is based in the northwestern Richmond area, covering suburbs such as Tuckahoe and Glen Allen. Under the new boundaries, SD 16 has trended a good deal to the left, having gone from supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a relatively competitive 7-point margin to supporting Joe Biden in 2020 by a considerably larger margin of almost 17 points. The Dems’ progress in the district can also be seen through the performances of Dems Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe in the respective 2017 and 2021 Governor races. In particular, McAuliffe caried the district by about 6 points, underperforming Northam in the district about just 5 points, which is less than his statewide underperformance (of Northam) of about 10 points (as Northam won statewide by about 8 points and McAuliffe lost statewide by about 2 points). Republicans do hold the advantage of incumbency in the district, with Republican State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant residing in the district, assuming she runs for reelection. Dunnavant has overperformed in previous cycles, as she managed to narrowly hold on in SD 12 by a margin of nearly 2 points in 2019, though it should be noted that SD 12 was a few points redder than SD 16, with Clinton performing about 3 points worse (than she did in SD 16) and Biden performing about 5 points worse (than he did in SD 16). Even with some uncertainty about the national environment for 2023, I’m giving the Democrats the edge to flip the seat, considering the district’s fundamentals and that McAuliffe still managed to carry the seat fairly decently in 2021. In addition, the Democrats also have a strong candidate this cycle, Schuyler VanValkenburg, who currently serves in the Virginia House of Delegates. I’m classifying SD 16 as Lean Democrat.

Virginia Senate District 12

VA SD 12 contains areas to the south and southwest of Richmond including Midlothian and Colonial Heights. SD 12 has traditionally been heavily Republican but has moved towards the Dems in recent years, with Donald Trump carrying it by between 12 and 13 points in 2016 and by a narrower margin of just under 6 points in 2020. The district was not competitive in the 2021 Governor’s race, with McAuliffe losing the district by about 14 points, though this is only 4 points worse than Northam’s 2017 margin in the district, indicating favorable trends for Dems overall (again, given that McAuliffe underperformed Northam by a lot more statewide). Republican State Senator Amanda Chase, who is known for extreme positions has been drawn into the new district. Interestingly, Chase’s previous district, SD 11, was actually a few points bluer, having gone for Trump by about 2 points in 2020, though Chase still ended up being reelected by a fairly comfortable margin of about 9 points in 2019. In addition, two other Republicans are running for the seat: Tina Ramirez and Glen Sturtevant, who previously represented the Democratic leaning SD 10 and was defeated for reelection in 2019. (Sturtevant ended up losing by about 8 points though he did outperform Trump’s 2016 margin by about 4 points). The GOP should be heavily favored to hold SD 12 this cycle, but the district still warrants notice, given that it was single digits at the presidential level in 2020 and the favorable trends for Dems overall. I’m classifying the district as Likely Republican. It should be noted that there are currently no Democratic challengers for the seat.

Virginia Senate District 4

VA SD 4 is home to the community of Roanoke as well as more rural areas to the west of the city. Overall, SD 4 has been a competitive district, if not somewhat Republican leaning, at the statewide/presidential level, having supported Trump by between 6 and 7 points in 2016 and by a razor-thin margin (less than a quarter of a percentage point) in 2020. The district was also very close in the 2017 Governor’s race, with Northam coming within 2 points of carrying it, though not surprisingly, Dems were considerably less successful here in the 2021 Governor’s race, with McAuliffe losing the district by about 10 points. Both incumbent Democrat senator John Edwards (who has been representing SD 21) and incumbent Republican senator Dave Sutterlein (who has been representing SD 19) have been drawn into the new district, potentially setting up an incumbent vs incumbent race. Not surprisingly, SD 4 is in-between SD 21 and SD 19, partisan-wise, with SD 21 (which overlaps with much of the Roanoke part of SD 4) being a fairly blue district (as it went for Biden by a little more than 13 points) and SD 19, being a reliably red district (as it went for Trump by about 35 points). SD 4 should be competitive this cycle, but the Republicans should be favored somewhat, given the demographics of the seat. In particular, it should be noted that the district seems to be fairly geographically polarized politically, meaning that Dems will likely need to rely on base turnout more than persuasion to win the district, which may be difficult given the nature of VA’s off-year elections. I’m classifying the district as Lean Republican.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/24/2148968/-Virginia-State-Senate-Districts-2023-SD-16-SD-12-SD-4

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