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Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear Surges Ahead in New Polling [1]

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Date: 2023-01-26  

In 2019, Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear pulled off the upset of the cycle, defeating Republican Governor Matt Bevin by 0.4% — winning the narrowest victory of any Kentucky Governor since the 1800s. That only underscored the challenge Beshear might face in 2023. He no longer has the benefit of running with an unpopular Republican President in the White House. Moreover, Beshaer benefitted considerably from former Governor Matt Bevin’s unpopular crusade to cut spending on education.

However, the first poll of the election cycle suggests that Andy Beshear could defy political gravity once again. It's by Mason Dixon, and it shows Andy Beshear leading by 9% against Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

I run RacetotheWH , which tracks the latest polling and predicts elections using a sophisticated data-driven election forecast. Last cycle, we called the highest percentage of Governor and Senate races right of any forecaster, and we came within one seat of perfectly predicting the final seat count in the House (we predicted the GOP would win 223 seats, and they won 222).

Last week, we launched our Kentucky Governor forecast for the 2023 election . At launch, we considered Beshear the narrow favorite in a tossup race. Without the benefit of his approval rating polling, we would have had Beshear at only a ~35% chance of getting a second term, but polls have consistently shown that he’s one of the most popular Governors in the country — quite a feat for a Democrat in a deep red state.

Beshear has consistently earned the support of 60% of Kentuckians, including over 40% of Republicans. That was enough evidence to suggest Beshear could be poised to outperform expectations and boosted his chance of winning to 63% before the new polling.

The forecast still rated it as a tossup, because Beshear barely won the election in a very friendly year for Democrats back in 2019. Plus, it's not easy for Governors to run in a state that so strongly prefers the other party. Relative to the national popular vote, Kentucky preferred Republicans by a net 30% in recent federal elections.

Latest Forecast for the KY Governor Race from RacetotheWH. Click here for the full forecast

The new polling has changed our forecast for the race, as head-to-head polling has more predictive value than approval ratings. We have switched our rating from Tossup to Lean D. Andy Beshear's chances of winning have ballooned to 78% against the field, including 75% against the GOP's top contender Daniel Cameron.

To learn much more about the race — including a full list of polling, interactive maps, analysis, and our primary forecast, be sure to check out the Kentucky Governor Forecast .

Finally, check back to RacetotheWH on Monday, because we will be launching our 2024 Senate Forecast, which led the nation in calling over 97% of Senate races right last cycle.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/26/2149415/-Democratic-Kentucky-Governor-Andy-Beshear-Surges-Ahead-in-New-Polling

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