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Virginia House of Delegates Districts (2021): HD 52, HD 41, HD 34, HD 49 [1]

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Date: 2023-01-31  

After looking at the competitive seats in the Virginia State Senate, I thought it would make sense to look at the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates (lower chamber) over a series of articles. The current balance in the House of Delegates (HoD) is 52R – 48D, meaning Democrats need a net gain of at least three seats for control of the chamber, with a net gain of exactly two seats producing a tied chamber, resulting in a power sharing agreement. These articles will be structured the same way as those for the VA Senate. As the case with the VA Senate, district numbers on the new house map have no resemblance to the corresponding numbered districts on the old (pre-2023 map), and in many cases aren’t geographically equivalent to any particular district (on the old map). This makes determining which districts are “Dem-held” or “Republican-held” a bit confusing. I have classified the house districts in such a way as to preserve the current balance of the chamber, meaning there are 52 Republican-held districts and 48 Democratic-held districts. All districts with Dem incumbent(s) are “Dem-held” and all the districts with Republican incumbent(s) are “Republican-held.” (Unlike in the upper chamber, there are no districts that have both Dem and Rep incumbents drawn in). The more Democratic-leaning open seats are classified as Dem-held and the more Republican-leaning open seats are classified as Republican-held. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”) if they are projected to flip.

Today, I am going to be looking at four districts: HD 52, HD 41, HD 34, and HD 49, all of which are Republican held. These are arguably the only potentially competitive VA house seats outside a major city/metro area.

Virginia House District 52

VA HD 52 is located in the central-western part of the state and is centered around the community of Lynchburg. HD 52 has generally leaned heavily Republican, but has moved towards the Democrats in recent years, having gone from supporting Donald Trump by a comfortable 13-point margin in 2016 to supporting him by a much narrower 2-point margin in 2020. Unsurprisingly, the district wasn’t at all competitive in the 2021 Governor’s race, with Dem Terry McAuliffe losing the district by about 16 points. Two incumbent HoD Republicans have been drawn into HD 52: Kathy Byron, who has represented HD 22, and Wendell Walker, who has represented HD 23. (Walker has explicitly announced his reelection bid, while Byron’s plans are less clear.) Note that both HD 22 and HD 23 were solidly red districts (Lynchburg being “cracked” between them) with Trump carrying the former by about 29 points and the latter by about 22 points, making previous election results not especially meaningful here. Regardless, the Republicans should be heavily favored in HD 52 this cycle, but the district is worth keeping an eye on given the close result in the 2020 presidential race and the overall increase in polarization. I’m classifying HD 52 as Likely Republican. Note that there currently aren’t any Democratic challengers for the seat.

Virginia House District 41

VA HD 41 is located in the southwestern part of the state and is home to the community of Blacksburg. HD 41 has been a competitive district, if not somewhat Republican leaning, with Trump carrying it by about 3 points in 2016 and by less than a percentage point in 2020. Interestingly, Dem Ralph Northam carried the seat by about 4-points in the 2017 Governor’s race, despite doing about 2 points worse than Joe Biden statewide. The Dems were considerably less successful in 2021, with McAuliffe losing the district by a little less than 12 points. HD 41 is open this cycle, as no HoD incumbents have been drawn into the district. At least two Democrats are running: Lily Franklin, who has previously served as Chief of Staff for Delegate Sam Rasoul, and James Harder, who previously ran for the HoD in 2013 (but lost the general election), while business owner Lowell Bowman and Montgomery County assistant commonwealth attorney Chris Obenshain are running on the Republican side. The district should likely be competitive, given the lack of an incumbent, but the GOP should still have the edge, as the overall trends don’t seem that great for Dems (with the seat not shifting all that much at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020). I’m classifying HD 41 as Lean Republican.

Virginia House District 34

VA HD 34 is located in the northwestern part of the state and contains the communities of Harrisonburg and Elkton. HD 34 has been a GOP leaning district that has been somewhat competitive (at the statewide/presidential level), with Trump carrying it by between 7 and 8 points in 2016 and by a little more than 4 points in 2020. Again, like most Trump 2020 districts, HD 34 wasn’t close in 2021, with McAuliffe losing the district by a large 18-point margin. The Republicans will also have some advantage of incumbency here for 2023, as Republican incumbent Tony Wilt has been drawn into HD 34 (assuming he runs for reelection). Wilt’s previous district, HD 26, is similar, partisan-wise, to HD 34, if not a tad bit redder (as Trump’s 2020 margin was a percentage point higher than it was in HD 34). Wilt had marginally competitive house races (for HD 26) in both 2017 and 2019, as he won by between 8 and 9 points, though he easily won in 2021 by nearly 19 points. There is currently one Democratic challenger for the seat: Esther Nizer. The GOP should likely be fine in HD 34 this cycle, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given that many of the previous results in the district have been competitive. I’m classifying the seat as Likely Republican.

Virginia House District 49

VA HD 49 is located on the state’s southern border and is home to communities such as Danville and South Boston. HD 49 is a GOP leaning district that has been somewhat competitive at the presidential level, with Trump carrying it by just over 6 points in 2016 and by between 3 and 4 points 2020. However, the district seems to be more Republican-leaning in off-year elections. In particular, Northam lost the district by about 10 points in 2017, underperforming Clinton by a few points despite the reverse being true statewide, and McAuliffe performed especially poorly here in 2021, as he lost the district by 19.5 points. It should be noted that because black voters make up 40% of the district, turnout is essential. As the case with HD 52, two incumbent Republicans have been drawn into HD 49: James Edmunds, who has represented HD 60, and Danny Marshall, who has represented HD 14. (HD 14 overlaps with much of the western part of HD 49 and HD 60 overlaps with much of the eastern part of HD 49). Both HD 14 and HD 60 were redder districts than HD 49 (though only slightly redder in the case of HD 14), with Trump (in 2020) carrying HD 14 by a little than 7 points and HD 60 by about 13 points. Edmunds’s and Marshall’s recent house races have been even less competitive, with both winning their most recent elections by over 20 points, though it doesn’t seem as though the Dems made serious efforts. (Note that the Democrats didn’t even contest HD 14 in 2017 or HD 60 in 2021). Many might argue that HD 49 should be considered “Safe Republican”, but I feel that given the overall increase in polarization, the district does have the potential to be competitive if the Dems run a credible candidate. I’m classifying HD 49 as Likely Republican. Currently there aren’t any Democratic challengers for the seat.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/31/2150275/-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Districts-2021-HD-52-HD-41-HD-34-HD-49

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