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Morning Digest: Supreme Court denies GOP's appeal of ruling striking down Virginia's state House map [1]

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Date: 2019-06-18  

Senate

● NC-Sen: On Monday, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham announced that he would seek the Democratic nod to challenge GOP incumbent Thom Tillis in North Carolina's Senate race, a contest that could prove vital to Team Blue's hopes of flipping the chamber. Cunningham is one of several Tar Heel State Democrats who had met with the DSCC about a potential campaign, but it's unclear at this point if he's their preferred candidate. However, Cunningham entered the race with an endorsement from former Sen. Kay Hagan, who narrowly lost the 2014 race to Tillis.

Cunningham was elected to his only term in the legislature in 2000 at the age of 27, and he decided not to run again after the court-ordered 2002 round of redistricting redrew his seat, making it lean significantly to the right. Cunningham went on to serve in both Iraq and Afghanistan as a lawyer in the Army Reserve, and he earned a Bronze Star for his work prosecuting contractor fraud.

Cunningham unsuccessfully sought North Carolina's other Senate seat a decade ago. The DSCC reportedly recruited Cunningham in 2009 to challenge GOP Sen. Richard Burr, and they continued their pursuit even after Secretary of State Elaine Marshall entered the race and Cunningham initially announced he would not run.

Cunningham eventually reversed course and launched his campaign in December, and he had the DSCC's support for the primary, though not their official endorsement. However, Cunningham's fundraising did not impress observers, and he brought in only $1.3 million through the July primary runoff. Marshall also struggled to raise cash, but unlike Cunningham, she had a base of support as a four-time statewide elected official. Marshall ended up beating Cunningham 60-40 in the primary runoff, and she went on to lose to Burr 55-43.

Cunningham, who currently serves as an executive at a waste reduction company, hasn't been on the ballot since that race. However, Cunningham did launch a bid for lieutenant governor this cycle back in December, and he raised $315,000 through the rest of that month for that campaign. Cunningham exited the lieutenant governor contest on Monday as he was entering the Senate race.

Cunningham joins state Sen. Erica Smith and Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller in the primary. However, each of those candidates raised less than $30,000 through March, which will not go far in what will be a very expensive race. Former state Sen. Eric Mansfield, who last lost the 2012 primary for lieutenant governor, also set up an exploratory committee in April, and the Charlotte Observer wrote Monday he "is expected to announce soon."

One Democrat we can finally cross off the list of potential candidates is former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx. The local blog PoliticsNC wrote in late April that Foxx had decided not to run, and he confirmed on Sunday that he would indeed be staying out of the race.

● SC-Sen: Change Research (D) for The Post and Courier: Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 51, Jaime Harrison (D): 35

● TN-Sen: Former GOP Gov. Bill Haslam told reporters on Saturday he'd decide on a Senate run "in the next two or three weeks." Haslam has punted his decision several times, though, saying in January that he would make up his mind "probably sometime in March," which of course didn't happen. Orthopedic trauma surgeon Manny Sethi entered the GOP primary for this open seat earlier this month, and he sounds very unlikely to defer to Haslam.

On the Democratic side, Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke said Friday that he wouldn't run.

● TX-Sen, TX-32: Former Florida Rep. Allen West said Monday that he'd announce his 2020 plans on the evening of July 3, and he described his options as running for the Senate, seeking the 32nd Congressional District, or campaigning for state GOP chair. West recently expressed interest in taking on freshman Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, but this is the first we'd heard of him possibly challenging Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary.

Gubernatorial

● VT-Gov: Former Agency of Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe told Seven Days on Friday that she was considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Gov. Phil Scott, and that she'd make up her mind "within the next couple of weeks."

Holcombe was appointed education secretary in 2014 by Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin, and she stayed at the post through Scott's first year as governor. However, Holcombe suddenly resigned in 2018, and all she would publicly say was it was "a personal decision" that wasn't prompted by policy differences between her and Scott.

However, Vermont Board of Education chair Krista Huling said at the time that there were indeed big policy disputes involved, and that Holcombe was particularly unhappy with the administration when they called for school districts to reduce their spending after voters had already approved new budgets. Huling also said that Holcombe believed that Scott's own policies had led to the situation. Holcombe reportedly considered challenging Scott that year, but she didn't go for it.

A few other Democrats are considering taking on Scott. Attorney General T.J. Donovan and Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman reportedly have been thinking about getting in, and while both merely didn't rule out running when asked a few weeks ago, Donovan confirmed to Seven Days that he is considering. It sounds like Holcombe will make up her mind well before either of them, as Donovan said earlier this month that he was "nowhere near in terms of making a decision one way or the other" while Zuckerman said he "feel[s] little pressure to make any immediate decision."

House

● AL-01: Outgoing Selma Police Chief Spencer Collier expressed interest last week in seeking the GOP nod for this safely red open seat, but he has some much more serious and immediate concerns. On Thursday, Collier was arrested and charged with what WSFA 12 describes as "making a false police report after allegedly claiming a credit card had been fraudulently used at a local hotel." Collier said afterwards, "My adult son, who is a recovering addict and multiple felon used my bank card," and, "I filed a police report, being this is the 2nd time in a year that he has done this."

Also on Thursday, Collier's wife filed a protection order against him, saying he threatened her with violence and "is in an unstable state of mind."

● AZ-03: On Friday, Democratic Rep. Raúl Grijalva's office confirmed that the House Ethics Committee was investigating allegations that he'd created a hostile work environment. Back in 2015, the Natural Resources Committee, where Grijalva has long been a member, used taxpayer dollars to pay out a $48,000 severance package to a former committee staffer who accused the congressman of being "frequently drunk" and creating a hostile office setting. This news broke in late 2017, and the following year, the Ethics Committee said the settlement was permitted. Grijalva has denied the allegations and said in 2017, "I was not impaired or drinking while I was doing my job, period."

Grijalva's spokesman said Friday that while the Ethics Committee was reviewing the allegations against the congressman "there is no new information that has come up. It's the same issue that's already been discussed with the previous allegations." He added, "This is just a review of specifically the hostile work environment allegations. It's something that they're just sort of closing the loop on."

● FL-15: Florida Politics' Janelle Irwin Taylor, citing an unnamed "top Democratic political consultant," reported Monday that Democratic state Rep. Adam Hattersley plans to challenge freshman GOP Rep. Ross Spano. Andrew Learned, who lost the primary for this central Florida congressional last year, reportedly will also exit this contest and run for Hattersley's seat in the legislature. Hattersley's campaign only said in response that they were "looking at the numbers and in the process of making a decision."

Hattersley, a former nuclear submarine officer and instructor at the U.S. Naval Academy, won elected office last year by succeeding none other than Ross Spano. The state House seat, which is located in the Brandon area, very narrowly backed both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, and Hattersley won the general election by a 51.5-48.5 margin.

Florida's 15th Congressional District, which is located north of Tampa, supported Trump 53-43, and Spano beat Democrat Kristen Carlson here 53-47 last year. However, Spano generated some bad headlines just after his win when he admitted to accepting $180,000 in loans from two individuals, which election law experts say appears to violate the $2,700 per person limit on donations to federal campaigns.

● IA-03: Ankeny Community Schools Board member Brad Huss filed with the FEC on Sunday to raise money for a bid for the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne. Huss actually told a conservative blogger he was running back in mid-April, but he only opened a fundraising account this week and still doesn't appear to have a website set up.

● IN-05: GOP Rep. Susan Brooks’ Friday retirement announcement came as a surprise to everyone, but it didn’t take long for Republicans to start eyeing this suburban Indianapolis seat.

Over the weekend, state Sen. John Ruckelshaus said he was considering running here. Ruckelshaus is a nephew of William Ruckelshaus, who resigned as deputy U.S. attorney general in 1973 during the Watergate scandal as part of the “Saturday Night Massacre.” State GOP Chairman Kyle Hupfer also didn’t rule out running. Politico also writes that Megan Savage, who serves as Brooks’ chief of staff, is thinking about getting in, though she has yet to say anything publicly.

Another name that has gotten some attention is former state Sen. Mike Delph, a conservative hardliner who lost his seat last year to Democrat J.D. Ford by a 57-43 margin. Back in March, well before Brooks retired, Howey Politics reported that Delph was considering challenging her in the primary, but Delph never said anything publicly. Delph declined to comment when the Indianapolis Star asked him about his 2020 plans on Friday, but it didn’t take long for Todd Rokita, who represented the neighboring 4th District until this year, to take to Twitter and express his support for a potential Delph campaign.

A number of other local Republicans have also been mentioned, but we have yet to hear anything about their interest. The Herald Bulletin name-drops state House Speaker Brian Bosma, while Roll Call mentions Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch; Fishers Mayor Scott Fadness; state Treasurer Kelly Mitchell; state party executive director Pete Seat; and Rokita.

National Democrats have been trying to recruit former state Rep. Christina Hale for months, and she said after Brooks retired that she was still considering and would announce her plans “soon.” This district has been safely red turf for a long time, but that’s begun to change in the Trump era. After voting for Mitt Romney by a 57-41 margin in 2012, this seat gave Donald Trump a smaller 53-41 win four years later even though the state as a whole was moving in the opposite direction.

That trend continued last year. Even though Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly lost his bid for re-election by a 51-45 spread, election analyst Miles Coleman writes that he carried the 5th by a 48.4-47.9 margin.

● MT-AL, MT-Gov: GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte announced last week that he would run for governor, and two statewide Republicans quickly announced that they would run to succeed him as Montana's only U.S. House member. On Saturday, Secretary of State Corey Stapleton said he was dropping out of the governor's contest and would instead campaign for the House seat. On Monday, state Auditor Matt Rosendale, who lost last year's Senate race to Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, also confirmed he was running for the House. The radical anti-tax Club for Growth had spent months working to recruit Rosendale, and they quickly endorsed his House bid.

Another familiar Republican is also eyeing this race. Former state Judge Russ Fagg said over the weekend he might run, but that he was also considering waiting until 2022 when Montana could gain a second House seat. Both Rosendale and Fagg competed in the 2018 Senate primary, a contest Rosendale won 34-28.

This won't be the first time we've had a race between Stapleton and Rosendale for this House seat. Back in 2014, when then-Rep. Steve Daines left to successfully run for the Senate, Stapleton and Rosendale both ran here. However, it was Ryan Zinke that ended up winning the GOP nod with 33% of the vote, while Stapleton edged Rosendale 30-29 for second place. Two years later, both defeated House candidates won their current statewide positions.

Both Stapleton and Rosendale were initially mentioned as possible Senate candidates in 2018 against Tester, but only Rosendale ended up running. Democrats made sure to remind voters that Rosendale, who worked as a developer, had only moved to Montana from Maryland in 2002, and that he still sports a Maryland accent. Rosendale also ran into problems when Talking Points Memo reported that the self-described "rancher" didn't own any cattle or actually ranch his property, a story Democrats didn't hesitate to exploit.

National Republicans didn't act particularly impressed with Rosendale, and the major GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund was particularly slow to reserve fall TV time here. However, Donald Trump, who had carried Montana 56-35, made beating Tester a priority, and he repeatedly stumped for Rosendale and fired off nasty tweets at the incumbent. Rosendale, like most Republicans in red state contests, also tried to use the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court fight to bludgeon Tester. Ultimately, Tester beat Rosendale 50-47.

Stapleton had a quieter 2018 than his once and future primary rival, but he still ran into some controversy. Attorney General Tim Fox, who is now running for governor, criticized Stapleton after the secretary of state opted to hire attorney Emily Jones, who is the wife of former state party director and Stapleton friend Jake Eaton, rather than use an attorney provided by Fox's office for a case against the state Green Party. Fox called Stapleton's decision "mystifying," concluding, "Ultimately, he made a political decision to needlessly spend $60,000 on outside counsel and lost the case."

Stapleton has also attracted more scrutiny over his ties to Eaton. Last year, Stapleton's office mailed out voter guides that contained mistakes, and they paid Eaton's company $265,000 to quickly print out corrected guides. Stapleton defended the decision, saying he'd taken bids and Eaton's company just happened to be the best for the job. This year, Stapleton ran afoul of the state ethics commission when he announced his candidacy for governor using his official state email address and resources, a mistake that led to a $4,000 fine.

Democrats also have a primary here between former state Rep. Kathleen Williams, who lost the 2018 contest to Gianforte 51-46, and freshman state Rep. Tom Winter.

P.S. This is the fourth time this decade that we have an open House seat contest in Montana. In 2012, five-term GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg left to unsuccessfully challenge Tester, and he was succeeded by Daines. Daines successfully ran for the Senate two years later, which set off the aforementioned House race that Zinke won. Zinke only served until 2017, when he was appointed Trump's secretary of the interior (a job Trump forced him out of the very next year), and Gianforte won the special election to succeed him. This may be the last time this version of the district is open, too: As potential House candidate Russ Fagg noted, Montana may well gain a second U.S. House seat in 2022.

● TX-28: Attorney Jessica Cisneros announced on Saturday that she'd raised $100,000 during her first 48 hours of her Democratic primary challenge to conservative Rep. Henry Cuellar.

Legislative

● Special Elections: There are two special elections in Florida on tap for Tuesday. A third had been scheduled in the Broward County-based 97th House District, but Democrat Dan Daley was the only candidate to file and will take the seat by default.

FL-HD-07: This is a Republican district located in the eastern portion of the Panhandle. This seat became vacant after former state Rep. Haley Beshears was selected by Gov. Ron DeSantis to lead the Department of Business and Professional Regulation. There are two candidates on the ballot: Ryan Terrell, a former legislative aide to state Rep. Katie Edwards, is the Democratic candidate and businessman Ryan Shoaf is the Republican. This is a heavily Republican district that backed Donald Trump 68-30 and Mitt Romney 63-36.

FL-HD-38: This is also a Republican district, located in the Dade City area. This vacancy was created when former state Rep. Daniel Burgess joined the DeSantis administration as head of the state Department of Veterans Affairs. The Democratic candidate is Kelly Smith, an operations manager for an engineering company, and the Republican is businessman Randy Maggard.

Smith has picked up some high-profile endorsements. She's received the backing of Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the only Democrat to hold statewide office in Florida, as well as former Sen. Bill Nelson. Despite that, this race will still be a very difficult one for Smith. This district is solidly Republican, having supported Trump 56-40 and Romney 54-45. Republicans control this chamber 71-46 with these three seats vacant.

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