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Virginia House of Delegates Districts (2023): HD 71, HD 69, HD 86, HD 100 [1]

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Date: 2023-02-01  

Today, I am looking at four more districts in the Virginia House of Delegates (HoD): HD 71, HD 69, HD 86, and HD 100, all of which are largely located at the northern end of the Hampton Roads (Virginia Beach-Norfolk) area. HD 69 is a Democratic held district, while the remaining three districts are all Republican held.

Virginia House District 71

VA HD 71 is home to the community of Williamsburg and areas to the north. HD 71 has been a competitive district, having supported Donald Trump by just over 2 points in 2016 and Joe Biden by about 3 points in 2020. In 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam carried it by about a percentage point in the Governor’s race, performing in-between Hillary Clinton and Biden, while Dem Terry McAuliffe was less successful in the 2021 Governor’s race, as he lost the district by about 8 points. In general, HD 71 seems to be about 7 to 8 points redder than the state of VA as a whole (at least based on the statewide results above). HoD incumbent Republican Amanda Batten has been drawn into HD 71 and is running for reelection, giving the GOP some incumbency advantage for 2023. Batten has been representing the slightly redder HD 96, which went for Trump by about a percentage point in 2020. Batten was first elected in 2019 in an open race, which she won by a competitive 6-point margin, and was reelected in 2021 by a larger 11.5 point margin, though this win isn’t that all that impressive, given how much the state swung to the right that year. Williamsburg-James City Council school secretary Jessica Anderson is the Democratic challenger this cycle. HD 71 should be competitive given the fundamentals of the district, but Batten should still have an edge, as the incumbent. I’m classifying the seat as Lean Republican.

Virginia House District 69

VA HD 69 extends from the James River on the west, including communities such as Jamestown, to Chesapeake Bay on the east, including communities such as Yorktown. HD 69 has traditionally been Republican leaning but has moved towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Trump by just under 11 points in 2016 to a much smaller margin of just under 2 points in 2020. In 2017, Northam lost the district by about 5 points (performing in-between Clinton and Biden), while McAuliffe in 2021 lost the district by about 12 points, which while being a fairly large margin, is only 1 to 2 points worse than Clinton’s performance in the district, indicating positive trends for Dems (as he underperformed her by quite a bit more statewide). HoD incumbent Democrat Mike Mullin, who has been representing HD 93, has been drawn into the new HD 69, which gives Dems some advantage of incumbency (assuming he runs for reelection). HD 93, which was redrawn mid-decade for the 2019 election, is a significantly bluer district than HD 69, having gone for Biden by 16 points. In 2019, Mullin was reelected by a fairly comfortable margin of 11.5 points, though unsurprisingly his 2021 house race was closer, where he won by just a little more than 3 points. Mullin currently has one Republican challenger, York County supervisor Chad Green. Given that the seat is somewhat Republican leaning, the GOP should be slightly favored to flip it, even with the Dems potentially having the incumbency advantage. I’m classifying HD 69 as Lean Republican.

Virginia House District 86

VA HD 86 contains the community of Poquoson and is located just southeast of the previously covered HD 69. HD 86 seems to have trended towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Trump by just under 6 points in 2016 to supporting Biden by just over 3 points. The district wasn’t especially competitive in 2021, with McAuliffe losing it by just over 9 points. The GOP does presumably have the advantage of incumbency, as Republican incumbent A.C. Cordoza has been drawn into the new district. A.C. Cordoza previously flipped HD 91 in 2021, as he defeated Democratic incumbent Martha Mugler by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes. Note that HD 91 is several points bluer than HD 86, as the former district supported Biden by just over 8 points. The Republicans should be somewhat favored here for 2023, but the district should still be competitive. I’m classifying HD 82 as Lean Republican. Note that there currently aren’t any Democratic challengers for the seat.

Virginia House District 100

VA HD 100 encompasses the entire Eastern Shore of Virginia, as well as part of the city of Virginia Beach on the other side of the bay. VA HD 100 has been a Republican leaning district that has been moderately competitive at the statewide/presidential level, with Trump carrying it by between 9 points in 2016 and by a smaller margin of between 5 and 6 points in 2020. Interestingly, in 2017 Northam outperformed Biden in the district (despite the reverse being true statewide), as he came within 3 points of carrying the district, though McAuliffe was considerably less successful here in 2021, losing the district by 16.5 points. Two Republican incumbents have been drawn into the new district: Robert Bloxom Jr, who has been representing the old (2013-2023) HD 100, and Tim Anderson, who has been representing HD 83. Note that both the old HD 100, which overlaps with the Eastern Shore part of the new HD 100, and HD 83, which overlaps with the Virginia Beach part of the new HD 100, are bluer districts than HD 100. Specifically, the old HD 100 supported Biden by about nearly 7 points, though the state house races have been less successful for Dems, with Bloxom winning reelection by about 4 to 5 points in 2017 and 2019 and by a larger 12-point margin in 2021. One likely reason for Bloxom’s overperformances is that the Bloxom name holds a lot of weight in the state, as Bloxom Jr’s father also served in the VA legislature. HD 83 is an even bluer district, as it went for Biden for by about 15 points. Anderson narrowly flipped HD 83 in 2021, as he defeated incumbent Democrat Nancy Guy by just over 2 points. Bloxom or Anderson should be well positioned to hold onto the new HD 100, assuming either of them run again (as the seat is redder than both of their previous districts). Still, considering the overall increase in polarization, the district is worth keeping an eye on. I’m classifying HD 100 as Likely Republican. As with HD 86, the currently aren’t any Democratic challengers for the seat.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/1/2150471/-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Districts-2023-HD-71-HD-69-HD-86-HD-100

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