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What is the best path to transition from pandemic to endemic? [1]

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Date: 2023-02-01  

Is the COVID-19 pandemic as we know it today going remain a pandemic for some years to come? Or will it go away? Or will it eventually become endemic like the flu? Or perhaps is it endemic already or will be very soon? Some thoughts from NEUROLOGICA.blog...



Link to text quoted from NEUROLOGICAblog dated January 30, 2023: COVID and Hybrid Immunity

While we are all anxious for the COVID-19 pandemic to be over, I don’t remember any expert claiming that the virus would go away, or be eliminated to any significant degree. Rather, it would simply become like the flu, an endemic simmering infection that becomes part of the background.

The evidence clearly shows that the best path to minimizing COVID while ending its pandemic status was through a combination of vaccination and infection. We have no choice about the infection part because there is no plausible way to reduce it to zero (as China discovered). But we do want to reduce the spread of COVID, especially to vulnerable populations, while reducing the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death through vaccination. [bolding added] Pandemics always eventually burn themselves out, even in the pre-vaccination era, but we don’t want that to happen from a plague-level decimation.

… there is some recent evidence that might indicate an annual shot may be best in terms of maximizing hybrid immunity. The study looked at hybrid immunity, and specifically the delay between vaccination and infection. They found that up to the 400 day study period, longer gaps between the two resulted in greater overall immunity.

So while antibody levels themselves tend to fall over time (since infection or vaccination), immune memory cells tend to increase over time. This is probably another reason why pandemics tend to burn out, and why unexposed populations tend to be so vulnerable to infections (think of the infections introduced from Europe to native Americans).

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