(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Morning Digest: Upcoming special elections might finally bring certainty to Pennsylvania speakership [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-02 But it doesn't seem like he's eager to do so. Rozzi, a moderate who remains a registered Democrat a month after he pledged to run the chamber as an independent, told the Associated Press this week that he wants to keep his gavel and wouldn't commit to stepping down to support McClinton, who'd been the chamber's speaker-apparent after Democrats won a majority of seats in November. The Inquirer also recently asked McClinton, who would be the first Black woman to run the state House, if she anticipated becoming speaker "any time soon," to which she responded, "The answer is, I don't know." Republicans began the week with 101 members in the 203-person House compared to 99 for Rozzi and the other Democrats, with those three blue constituencies vacant. (Democrats won a 102-101 edge in November, but Republicans have still enjoyed a small advantage in membership.) Republicans, though, will lose a representative for a few months because state Rep. Lynda Schlegel Culver won a Tuesday special election to the state Senate: Schlegel Culver defeated Democrat Patricia Lawton 70-30 to hold a district that Trump took 67-31, and the contest to fill her comparably red House seat likely won't take place until May 16, the same day as Pennsylvania's regular statewide primary. Until then, assuming they successfully defend all three seats next week in the Pittsburgh area, Democrats would hold a 102-100 majority. It's likely they will: A prominent conservative organization said in December it was "evaluating opportunities" as far as those three races go, but so far, Republican outside groups don't appear to have deployed any serious resources in any of these contests. The most competitive race on paper is for House District 35, a 58-41 Biden seat that Democrat Austin Davis won in November before resigning to become lieutenant governor. (Pennsylvania allows candidates to run for the legislature and another office at the same time.) This race pits Democrat Matt Gergely, who serves as finance director for the community of McKeesport, against Don Nevills, the Republican who lost to Davis 66-34 last year. Local Democratic official Joe McAndrew will also be defending District 32, a 62-36 Biden constituency where state Rep. Tony DeLuca was posthumously re-elected, against pastor Clay Walker. Finally, Swissvale Borough Council President Abigail Salisbury should have no trouble succeeding now-Rep. Summer Lee in District 34, where Biden won 80-19. Rozzi, for his part, was elected speaker a month ago with the support of the entire Democratic caucus as well as 16 Republicans, but his position has always been tenuous. Democratic state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta tweeted just two days after that contest to predict that, once the specials are resolved, McClinton "will become Speaker Joanna McClinton." Some of Rozzi's former GOP backers, who supported him after concluding they couldn't elect one of their own, have also made it clear they're not happy that he's remained close to the Democrats and hasn't dropped his party affiliation. Rozzi says he only agreed to consider becoming an independent but doesn't plan to do so, but that isn't how Republican leader Bryan Cutler recounts it. "I think the mistake was trusting somebody who wasn't entirely truthful," said Cutler, adding, "That was a mistake. And there's still time to correct that." Rozzi himself, though, insists that it's Cutler who betrayed him over a proposed constitutional amendment that would give survivors of childhood sexual abuse a special two-year window to sue over claims that had otherwise expired. Rozzi, who himself is an abuse survivor, says that he believed the GOP-controlled state Senate crossed him by packaging this measure with two unrelated conservative amendments in order to pressure the House into placing all three on the ballot. The speaker insists he unsuccessfully tried to reach a resolution with Cutler but had harsh words for the Republican. "You talk to the Democrats up here over the last 12 years and they'll tell you, like every opportunity that Bryan Cutler got a chance to lie to them, he lied to them," said Rozzi. Following the debacle regarding the abuse amendment, Rozzi adjourned the chamber until late February without any further legislative action. The House also has yet to agree on operating rules that, among other things, would determine how many members from each party would sit on each committee. McClinton herself said last week she has a "positive working relationship," with the speaker, but she hasn't said if she'd ask him to step aside. Rozzi himself was noncommittal, saying of McClinton, "So, you know, at the end of the day she still has to get the votes to become speaker of the House." While acknowledging his critics, he insisted, "I think that if I can show people I can lead this House, maybe I could stay in this position." An unnamed Rozzi ally, however, told the AP, "Mark is not certain about how long his tenure lasts …. There's no textbook that he's going to be able to pull out and read the next play from." McClinton, for her part, said in response to Rozzi's comments about her that she "would be honored" to hold the top job and would "trust my colleagues will make the best decision to move Pennsylvania forward." The Downballot ● We're chatting with one of our favorite fellow election analysts on this week's episode of The Downballot, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kyle helped call races last year for CBS and gives us a rare window inside a TV network's election night decision desk, which literally has a big button to call control of the House—that no one got to press. Kyle also dives into his new race ratings for the 2024 Senate map, including why he thinks Joe Manchin's unlikely tight-rope act might finally come to an end. In their Weekly Hits, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap big developments in two Senate contests: Rep. Adam Schiff's entry into the race to succeed Dianne Feinstein, and the GOP's unexpected show of unity in the open-seat election in Indiana. They also dissect the first poll of this year's hotly contested race for governor in Kentucky and highlight another 2023 battle that shouldn't get overlooked: the race for a vacant seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. New episodes of The Downballot come out every Thursday morning. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time. Senate ● AZ-Sen, AZ-09: A trio of progressive groups have published a poll from the Democratic firm Normington Petts arguing that, while Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego can win the general election for Arizona's Senate seat whether or not Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema runs, the incumbent would disproportionately hurt Gallego while still falling far short of victory. The survey, which was conducted for Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC, tests out two different potential Republican candidates: conspiracy theorist Kari Lake, who claims she won the 2022 race for governor, and former Gov. Doug Ducey: Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45 Gallego (D): 36, Lake (R): 36, Sinema (I-inc): 24 Gallego (D): 37, Ducey (R): 31, Sinema (I-inc): 27 The release did not include numbers testing a two-way matchup between Gallego and Ducey. Sinema has yet to commit to running again, and the poll's sponsors argue she couldn't win. Ducey himself has said he won't run, but Lake reportedly is considering the idea. Plenty of Republican strategists, though, recognize that election deniers like Lake have been toxic to the party's chances, and Politico reports that freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani continues to remain a popular choice for this crowd: There's no word, though, if Ciscomani himself is interested. The story also says that unnamed consultants are trying to deter one of those disastrous candidates of 2022, Senate nominee Blake Masters, from waging another bid for the upper chamber by encouraging him to run for a safely red House seat instead. However, while Politico relays that there are rumors that far-right Rep. Paul Gosar could retire from his 9th District and thus give Masters a landing spot, Gosar himself responded, "No, I'm not leaving. I still think I'd like to see this majority go to the White House and the Senate." No matter what, Politico adds that Republicans doubt that both Masters and Lake would run against each other for Senate. ● IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Jim Banks on Wednesday got a still-not-a-tweet endorsement from Donald Trump for next year's open seat primary. Banks, who was already backed by the Club for Growth, also got a supportive statement the previous day from the NRSC right after former Gov. Mitch Daniels said he'd stay out of the race. It's unusual in this day and age for Trump, the NRSC, and the Club for Growth to all be on the same side in a potentially competitive nomination contest, though they're all hoping no one else ends up taking on Banks. (NRSC chair Steve Daines, unlike Trump, did not explicitly say his group was supporting the congressman, but plenty of observers interpreted his favorable words about Banks as a de facto endorsement.) Indeed, it was mere days ago that Trump, using a word that's long been an antisemitic dog whistle​, wrote, "The Club For No Growth is a GLOBALIST group that I have been taking to the cleaners for years." ● MI-Sen: Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who seems to have quite a high opinion of his political staying power eight years after leaving office, tells NBC that he’s considering seeking the Republican nod either to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow or to run for president. Rogers back in 2000 was elected to succeed Stabenow in the House when she left to successfully campaign for the upper chamber, and while he considered a 2014 run for Michigan’s other Senate seat, he instead ended up retiring that cycle to host a nationally syndicated show. Another Republican, Rep. Lisa McClain, also tells The Dispatch she's thinking about a Senate run. McClain, who didn't rule the idea out last month, says she's in no hurry to make up her mind. ● WV-Sen: Republican Gov. Jim Justice said Tuesday that he'd decide within the following 30 days whether he'd run for the Senate seat held by Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin. Judges ● PA Supreme Court: The Pennsylvania Democratic Party voted over the weekend to endorse Daniel McCaffery over his fellow Superior Court judge, Deborah Kunselman, in the May primary for this crucial state Supreme Court seat. The only declared Republican candidate is Montgomery County President Judge Carolyn Carluccio, though Philadelphia Common Pleas Court Judge Paula Patrick and Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough have each met with regional party caucuses to try to get the state GOP's backing this weekend. The post everyone wants became vacant in September when Chief Justice Max Baer died at the age of 74 just months before the Democrat was to retire because of mandatory age limits: Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro has not yet nominated a successor, and it's unclear if the GOP-led state Senate would confirm anyone he picked. The body retains a 4-2 Democratic majority though one of those Democrats, Kevin Dougherty, sided with his GOP colleagues last year in a high-profile case over whether to count mail-in ballots that arrived on time but had missing or incorrect dates. Legislatures ● GA State House: Tuesday's all-Republican special election runoff to succeed the longtime Speaker of the House David Ralston, who died just before Thanksgiving, ended with a 53-47 victory for banker Johnny Chastain over the speaker's widow, development authority director Sheree Ralston. Ralston led Chastain 45-39 on Jan. 3, but she fell a few points short of the majority she needed to avert what turned out to be a consequential second round for this rural north Georgia seat. Ralston had the backing of some notable state Republicans, including Gov. Brian Kemp and new Speaker Jon Burns, as well as a financial advantage. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein, though, says that Chastain "benefited from deep ties to the community," which may have made all the difference in this low-turnout affair. ​Chastain​ celebrated his win​ by declaring, "The former speaker got―​we all know it, it’s not a hidden thing―​but he got too busy, he forgot, he basically couldn’t represent us. He got hard to reach​." The new representative pledged, "But if you call me, I want to be able to try to get back to you. I want to be accessible​." One of his top supporters, local conservative talk radio host Brian Pritchard​, also explained Chastain’s victory by saying, "What happened was the grassroots rising against the establishment. We’re not going to let Atlanta pick our representative​." Mayors and County Leaders ● Erie County, NY Executive: Nate McMurray, a New York Democrat who came unexpectedly close to flipping the now-defunct 27th Congressional District in 2018 and a 2020 special election, announced Wednesday that he'd challenge Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz in this June's primary. Poloncarz has not yet announced if he'll seek a historic fourth term leading a populous community that's home to Buffalo, though the Buffalo News says the incumbent is expected to campaign again. McMurray, who is a former supervisor of the town of Grand Island, faulted Poloncarz's handling of the Christmas blizzard that left at least 47 people dead. "Dozens of people froze to death, and countless homes sustained costly damage from high winds and burst pipes," said the challenger, "and amidst the crisis, the County Executive was the first to point fingers in an embarrassing tirade that drew international headlines and brought shame to [Western New York]." McMurray, who also expressed his frustration that Poloncarz and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown blamed one another for the crisis, went after other aspects of the incumbent's tenure. He singled out a proposed $1.4 billion stadium proposal that the county would contribute $250 million to, saying, "There is more money and less in return for any stadium, ever." McMurray also predicted that the local Democratic Party, which he called "a mess," would be for Poloncarz. Erie County supported Joe Biden 56-42, though Gov. Kathy Hochul, who served as the county clerk a little more than a decade ago, took it only 53-47 last year. A few local politicians have expressed interest in seeking the Republican nod including former state Sen. Edward Rath and County Clerk Michael Kearns, who has long taken advantage of New York's fusion voting rules to run as the GOP nominee while still technically remaining a Democrat. The Democratic nominee will likely be the favorite, though this area was the site of a truly unexpected race just two years ago. Nurse India Walton defeated Brown, who also had the local Democratic establishment on his side, for renomination 51-46, a victory that appeared to set Buffalo up to be the first sizable American city in more than 60 years to elect a self-described socialist as mayor. Brown, though, campaigned as a write-in option in the general and won his fifth term 59-40. ● Nashville, TN Mayor: Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry has expressed interest in running this year to regain the post she left in 2018 following a scandal, a move that came shortly after incumbent John Cooper unexpectedly announced he would not seek re-election. Barry became one of the most prominent Democrats in Tennessee following her 2015 win, but she quit three years later as part of a plea deal for felony theft related to an affair with the former head of her security detail. Barry's hardly the only person, though, who is mulling running in the August nonpartisan primary: Axios' Nate Rau responded to Cooper's retirement by tweeting, "I have never fielded the crush of gossipy phone calls like have poured in since Mayor Cooper's announcement. It's bonkers out there folks." Davidson County Assessor Vivian Wilhoite says she'll form an exploratory committee, while Rau and Nashville Banner's Steve Cavendish have each rounded up statements from other would-be candidates who are showing some interest: Attorney and 2015 candidate Charles Robert Bone State Rep. Bob Freeman Businessman Jim Gingrich Register of Deeds Karen Johnson 2022 congressional nominee Odessa Kelly Juvenile Court Clerk Lonnell Matthews Metro Councilmember Bob Mendes State Sen. Jeff Yarbro Three notable candidates were already challenging Cooper: former economic development chief Matt Wiltshire and Metro Councilmembers Sharon Hurt and Freddie O'Connell. The filing deadline is in May, and a September runoff would take place if no one earned a majority of the vote in the first round. Rau predicts "this year's mayor's race will be a bloody free-for-all," but the winner will also likely be in for an ugly confrontation with the Republican-dominated Tennessee legislature. The GOP had already introduced two bills intended to punish the city's legislative body, the Metro Council, for effectively killing the legislature's plan to land the 2024 Republican National Convention, and more came the day of Cooper's retirement announcement. The new pieces of legislation would allow lawmakers and Republican Gov. Bill Lee to appoint a majority of members to the boards that run major Nashville sites like the airport, Nissan Stadium, and Bridgestone Arena. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/2/2150605/-Morning-Digest-Upcoming-special-elections-might-finally-bring-certainty-to-Pennsylvania-speakership Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/