(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Putin's Dangerous Delusions [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-02 More than 129,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine as I write this and it looks like Putin is ready to see 100s of thousands more die. Why is Putin so determined to stake everything on Ukraine? Why not just declare mission accomplished and withdraw to the 2014 lines, cutting his losses? Putin’s Worldview The annexation of Ukraine has always been an essential 1st step in Putin’s plan to re-establish Russia as a superpower and secure its borders in a manner acceptable to Putin. For Putin, Russia will always be insecure and under threat within its current borders. Russia has a vast border along the Ukrainian and Central Asian steppes that presents no natural geographical barriers to an invader. For centuries Russia was under the thumb of a succession of Mongol-Turkic steppe nomads that invaded from these wide open flat lands. Russia today has neither the manpower, the infrastructure nor the logistic capacity to defend that border. Creating a buffer with geographically defensible natural barriers would require the annexation of all of the countries that border Russia, including Ukraine. There is one small problem with this… the combined population of these countries is larger than Russia’s and their ideas for their futures do not include Russia or Putin. Thinking that this is a viable scenario — and it appears that is exactly what Putin thinks judging from the statements of those around him - is dangerously disconnected from reality. Putin saw the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the greatest disaster to befall Russia in its modern history. In Putin’s eyes, it was a humiliation imposed on Russia by the West. The Russian fascist philosopher Alexander Dugin provides a window into the worldview of Putin, his flunkies, and the Russian media. The Russian world, which includes all the Slavic countries and regions, as well as all the former spheres of influence of the Soviet Union has been corrupted and weakened by the woke West and its degenerate ideas and military and economic power. Russia must destroy the West’s power and influence and take command of all of the lands and peoples of the former Russian empire / Soviet Union in order to fulfill its great historic destiny and prevent the West from destroying Russia. Right in line with this thinking, Putin has called Ukraine a fake country. His TV talking heads have expounded that Ukrainians have to be re-educated into good Russians and those that resist need to be eliminated. They have bragged about what a good job they have done on children that Russia has kidnaped from Ukraine. They have eliminated any Ukrainian culture in them and remade them as loyal Russians. For the Putinists Ukrainian culture is a Banderist Nazis trick to mislead Russians into thinking they are not Russians. So the combination of what they see as what is necessary for Russia’s security and what they see as Russia’s rightful place in the world and historic destiny has got them drinking the Kool-aid of a completely delusional ‘plan’ that requires total victory in Ukraine and the genocide of the Ukrainian people for Russia to ‘survive’ - and it doesn’t end there, the Baltic states, Moldova and Kazakhstan would be next. Putin’s propagandists have openly spoken about annexing the provinces of Northern Kazakhstan that have a sizable ethnic Russian population and installing a puppet regime in a rump Kazakhstan that will turn away from China and be loyal to Russia. The excuse for all these invasions is protecting ethnic Russians. Here are the populations and the size of the Russian minority on Russia’s target list. Remember that in Slavic countries like Ukraine and Belarus, all Slavs are really Russians, who just need to be re-educated, not just the minority that are native Russian speakers. Ukraine 43.79 million - 17.3% ethnic Russian Belarus 9.5 million - 8.3% ethnic Russian Kazakhstan 19.4 million - 15% ethnic Russian Estonia 1.33 million - 23.6% ethnic Russian Latvia 1.884 million - 33% ethnic Russian Lithuania 2.8 million - 5% ethnic Russian Georgia 3.7 million - 0.7% ethnic Russian Armenia 2.79 million - 3.6% ethnic Russian In an absolute autocracy like Putin’s Russia any competent, independent-thinking individuals are eliminated as a potential threat. When all that's left are the flunkies and stooges things go downhill quickly in the strategy and thinking department. Imagine Majorie Taylor Green, Alex Jones, and Louie Gohmert being the brains of your operation. Welcome to Putin’s Russia, where an absolutely loony delusional ‘strategic plan’ is costing 100s of thousands of lives and destroying the economy of Russia with no change in direction in sight. The State of the War When every oblast in Ukraine, including Crimea, voted overwhelmingly for independence, Russians were shocked and appalled. It was like a husband who beat his wife every day for 30 years being shocked and offended when she files a restraining order and files for divorce. What about all we had together for 30 years? The Russians are shameless when it comes to making themselves the victim of their atrocious behavior and then using it to justify more atrocious behavior. So what now? Going back to the time of the Russian empire, the initial phase of a Russian war is always a disaster for Russia’s lumbering, corrupt, and incompetent war machine. The response is to double down and throw Russian bodies at the problem until they overwhelm it. For a Russian autocrat like Putin, this is very much business as usual. However, that strategy has failed as often as it has succeeded. In the Crimean War of 1853 the humiliated Russian Imperial army suffered almost 4x more deaths than the allies. That defeat was the beginning of the end for the Russian Empire. The Russian army’s disastrous WW1 performance with more than 1.7 million dead brought about the final collapse of the Tsarist regime. The Red Army managed to secure the Soviet government with a victory in the civil war that cost 10 million lives. Then came WWII, an event that still shapes Russian thinking today. In June 1941, 2 million German troops invaded Russia and obliterated the defenses of the Red Army. Come winter the German attack bogged down and Russia counterattacked with over 5 million soldiers. Crucially Russia was able to outproduce Germany in tanks, self-propelled guns, artillery, machine guns, mortars, combat aircraft, and rifles. Plus the full industrial capacity of the US war economy backed Russia. By 1945, after 27 million Russians died, the red army was at the gates of Berlin. Putin is counting on a replay of WW2, but there are a few critical differences between the Ukraine war and WW2. Russia’s industrial capacity . Sanctions have crippled it and the US and every major economy is now on the opposing side providing Ukraine with an endless supply of advanced weapons. In addition, in Soviet times, Ukrainian engineers, designers and manufacturers were a critical part of the Soviet defense industry. In this war, Putin has the industrial might of North Korea on his side. . Sanctions have crippled it and the US and every major economy is now on the opposing side providing Ukraine with an endless supply of advanced weapons. In addition, in Soviet times, Ukrainian engineers, designers and manufacturers were a critical part of the Soviet defense industry. In this war, Putin has the industrial might of North Korea on his side. Russia’s manpower problem. Stalin had 200 million citizens to draw from. That included Ukraine, Belarus, and all the Central Asian Republics. The USSR had a population of 288 million at its peak. Russia today has a rapidly shrinking population of 143 million. 100s of thousands of draft-age men, including all of Russia’s best and brightest, have left the country since the war began to avoid mobilization. Despite the fact that Russia has 3x the population of Ukraine, the upward limit on the number of troops for both countries seems not so much to be population size, but the capacity to train, arm and logistically support each recruit. Taking that into account it’s likely that the Ukrainian army will be bigger and better armed and trained than the Russian army in Ukraine in 2023. So this spring Putin may have 500,000 ill-trained, poorly armed troops committed to the war. But will that be enough to overwhelm Ukraine’s growing and improving defensive and offensive capabilities? As Ukraine gets more and more advanced and lethal weapons, Russia is relying more and more on obsolete weapons in poor condition and conscripts with no training. Time does not appear to be on Russia’s side. Providing Ukraine has enough ordnance and ammunition to kill all the Russians that will be thrown at them in the near term things should turn in Ukraine's favor. With incoming armored vehicles and tanks and western trained soldiers returning, Ukraine will be much more mobile and more flexible in its ability to take advantage of breakthroughs. Once the WW1-style trench warfare of the mud of winter is behind them the Ukrainians should be able to get the kill ratio up to 1 Ukrainian to 5-6 Russians. Do that and Russia could lose the war of attrition before 2023 is over. Despite Ukraine’s amazing performance so far, a Ukrainian victory is not a sure thing. Lots can still go wrong but the best safeguard against that is supplying the Ukrainians with everything they need now. The cost will be exponentially greater if we don’t enable the Ukrainians to deal with this cancer before it can consume them and spread. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/2/2150803/-Putin-s-Dangerous-Delusions Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/