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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Balancing the Democratic coalition [1]

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Date: 2023-02-03  

The best ally Democrats have? Republicans. And not just George Santos in New York, or Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, who helped elect Gov. Josh Shapiro. From David Siders/POLITICO Magazine:

‘The Party May Have to Die to Be Reborn’ In the country’s hottest hotbed of election denialism, the debate over voting goes on. And on. For true believers, said Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in [Arizona], “it’s this whole chicken-and-egg thing. Did we lose the election because of denialism, or did Democrats fix the election?” It doesn’t matter that it isn’t true, he said. “How do you combat that?” Like many more traditionalist Republicans, Marson had thought the party’s losses in November might result in some introspection. But he wasn’t counting on it, anymore. At this point, he said, “the party may have to die to be reborn.”

x Hey George Santos, remember when you pretended to be Jewish during your congressional campaign??? https://t.co/fb25zQnNIb — Julia Jassey 🕊 (@juliajassey) February 3, 2023

There’s a theme about what does or doesn’t work for Democrats at the ballot box. These next two pieces talk about language and overreliance on college liberals.

Nicholas Kristof/The New York Times:

Inclusive or Alienating? The Language Wars Go On Before the millions of views, the subsequent ridicule and finally the earnest apology, The Associated Press Stylebook practically oozed good intentions in its tweet last week: “We recommend avoiding general and often dehumanizing ‘the’ labels such as the poor, the mentally ill, the French, the disabled, the college educated.” “The French”? Zut alors! The result was a wave of mocking conjecture of how to refer sensitively to, er, people of French persuasion. The French Embassy in the United States proposed changing its name to “the Embassy of Frenchness.”

The point there is sometimes what appeals to the college-educated demographic might not appeal to anyone else. And a winning coalition is rarely just the college-educated demo.

Thomas Edsall/The New York Times:

How Much Longer Can ‘Vote Blue No Matter Who!’ Last? The Democrats’ biracial working-class coalition during the mid-20th century, in Wronski’s view, “was successful because racial issues were off the table.” Once those issues moved front and center, the coalition split: “Simply put, the parties are divided in terms of which portion of the working class they support — the white working class or the poorer minority communities.” The level of educational attainment is the line of demarcation between the two groups of white voters. By 2020, the white working class — defined by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis as “whites without four-year college degrees” — voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden, 67 to 32 percent, according to network exit polls. In the 2022 election, white working-class voters backed Republican House candidates at almost the same level, 66 to 32 percent. The shift of non-college white working-class support to the Republican candidates, Wronski wrote, was driven by racial group animus. Trump was particularly able to attract members of the white working class on the basis of racial (and other) group sentiments — with those disliking minority groups being uniquely attracted to Trump, in a continuation of the division of the working class along racial lines. There are those who argue, however, that the contemporary Democratic coalition is more fragile than Wronski suggests. Ryan Enos, a political scientist at Harvard, emailed to say, “If you’re a Democrat, you might worry that the coalition is not stable.”

Of course, there’s always the issue of Democrats running against actual Republicans, not Mother Theresa:

David Frum/The Atlantic: THE GOP IS JUST OBNOXIOUS It’s why the party keeps losing elections. But not all of Trump’s picks were obviously bad. Oz was for years a successful TV pitchman, trusted by millions of Americans for health advice. The first Muslim nominated for a Senate run by a major party, he advanced Republican claims to represent 21st-century America. Oz got himself tangled up between competing positions on abortion, sometimes in consecutive sentences, precisely because he hoped to position himself as moderate on such issues. But Oz’s decision to campaign as a jerk hurt him. When his opponent got sick, Oz could have drawn on his own medical background for compassion and understanding. Before he succumbed to the allure of TV, Oz was an acclaimed doctor whose innovations transformed the treatment of heart disease. He could have reminded voters of his best human qualities rather than displaying his worst. The choice to do the opposite was his, not Trump’s. x The MAGA Republicans in Congress have replaced their American flag lapel pins with AR-15 pins. pic.twitter.com/CMm0TVufYF — Ben Meiselas (@meiselasb) February 2, 2023 Alex Samuels/FiveThirtyEight: The 5 Main Factions Of The House GOP And how they’re likely to govern for the next two years. So what does it actually mean to be a “moderate” or “conservative” U.S. House member in the Republican Party of 2023? Don’t look for big policy divides to explain the difference — members are largely unified around an agenda of cutting certain spending programs, limiting abortion and keeping a lid on taxes. That’s not a new phenomenon: Four years ago, when my former colleague Perry Bacon Jr. analyzed what he believed were the five wings of the Republican Party, the categorizations revolved around Trump because, well, Trump defined the party. The goalposts for what makes a “moderate” versus “conservative” lawmaker are always shifting. But as Republicans settle back into control of the House of Representatives, I set out to update Perry’s analysis — and concluded that while Trump still holds outsized influence over the party, he’s no longer its central pivot point. Instead, I’d argue that a number of important fissures define the current House congressional GOP — and the embrace of Trump and Trumpism is just one of them. Voting records, ties to the establishment and caucus membership, for instance, all played a role in how I measured Republican House members against one another, drawing on data as well as expert opinion. And speaking of antipathy to college and speaking of obnoxious, there’s Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Tom Nichols/The Atlantic: Florida Has a Right to Destroy its Universities If Ron DeSantis wants to gut Florida’s public colleges, that’s up to Floridians. Elections have consequences. Florida’s governor has decided to root out wrong-think at one of Florida’s public colleges, and his harebrained meddling will likely harm the school, but he has every right to do it. Jonathan Chait/New York Magazine: Why DeSantis Is on Track to Beat Trump The main Trump alternative has learned the lessons of 2016. The Florida governor has spent the past year locking down the national Republican donor base and amassing a gigantic pool of money. Trump, by contrast, is reportedly strapped for funding. In the past, Trump has managed to overcome a resource deficit by exploiting his command of the national media. But the conservative media is now overwhelmingly favorable to DeSantis. Trump retains some corners of support on the right, and very few conservatives will criticize him in any way that validates a critique from the center or the left. x This is how Biden saves face--stick to the "no negotiation" script, engage in spending talks in parallel, potentially give on reasonable accommodations if Rs get their act together, move them in tandem if ultimately synced. Congressional Ds have more room to maneuver. — Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) February 2, 2023

Donovan is a Republican consultant and/but an honest analyst. On the other hand, the Biden White House’s readout is a master class in diplomatic speak.

When Joe Biden talks about Kevin McCarthy, his statements read like they were crafted by the State Department referring to North Korea. Don't offend the unstable leader, but don't give in to the terrorists, either.

Well done, sir/madam. Why not take a crack at the pundit roundup?

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