(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Putin's Jihad [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-04 Vladimir has bet the farm on Ukraine. It appears that in Putin’s mind, a defeat in Ukraine would be fatal for Russia, or at least for Putin’s idea of Russia. Yes, from a security point of view, a Ukraine armed and aligned with NATO would put Russia at a huge disadvantage in a war with the west. But did Putin and those around him really believe that Russia was at risk of invasion? That NATO and the US had a plan to unilaterally attack Russia eventually? If you look beyond the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin and look at the actions of Putin’s government in terms of military preparedness - they certainly weren’t acting like they faced an existential military threat. They spent the years since the annexation of Crimea optimizing their military for embezzlement, not to face the threat of a powerful modern army. The focus was on acquiring yachts and villas in Europe, not preparing for an invasion from Europe. It looks like the only adversaries they expected to face were weak countries on Russia’s borders. The corrupt, dysfunctional army they had seemed totally adequate to advance Putin’s aggression against his neighbors. The Power of Looney Ideas Fascist movements require a mythology and a motivating ideological force that appeals to society's biases, fears, and resentments to extend and protect their power. It’s as important as violence in enforcing control and attracting followers. We should not underestimate the power of what may seem like loony and outlandish ideas on the actions of leaders. Look at Trump and the MAGA Republicans. Ridiculous, easily disproved lies, weaponized religion, and crackpot conspiracy theories are moving elections and getting laws passed in the USA. The MAGA movement, along with nativists, fascists, and white nationalists everywhere see Putin as the titular head of global white nationalism and the leading defender of white Christian values against the woke, multicultural, gay, godless liberals destroying (white) civilization. Russia is an autocracy where the absolute ruler has some fairly warped and delusional ideas about the world and has no one around him who will challenge anything he says or does no matter how stupid it is. Don’t be surprised if he makes decisions that don't seem based on logic or reality. The Russkiy Mir At the heart of Putinism’s worldview and ‘Putinism’ is the concept of the Russkiy Mir (Russian World). When Putin speaks of Russia he is not speaking about the land within the borders of the Russian Federation. Putin ideologue Vladislav Surkov described it in 2021 “Putin said, ‘Russia has no borders’; I think he meant it. What is the Russian world? It is everywhere where people speak and think in Russian. … Where our Putin is respected. And he is respected in many places by those who do not speak Russian and who have a rather vague idea about Russia. Where people are afraid of Russian weapons, this is also the Russian world. This is our [sphere of] influence. Where our scientists, our writers, our art are respected. This is all the Russian world.” Putin saw the dissolution of the USSR as the greatest calamity to befall Russia in a century. The West humiliated and shattered Russia into multiple independent nations and attempted to infect Russia’s identity with degenerate Western ideas. For Putin, it is a clash of civilizations, Slavic Christian Orthodox Russia vs the woke West. Putin seems to see the USSR as a continuation of the Russian empire. That whole Marxist-Communist thing was not the point, it was the power and the fear that the USSR invoked in the world that was important. For Putin the USSR, like the Russian Empire before it was a Russian enterprise and it is his historic mission to restore the power and glory of Russia and defeat the forces of the West. For Putin, it’s a zero-sum game. In Putin’s mind, Russia can not survive unless the West is neutered. It’s why Putin has invested so much (with great success) in supporting Neo-Nazis, Nativists, and White Nationalists in Europe and the USA in the hopes of destabilizing Western democracy. The toxic combination of intolerant conservative religion, nativism, misinformation, corruption, thuggery, misogyny, and white resentment has been a rising threat to liberal democracy everywhere. White Replacement Theory: Russian Edition The Russkiy Mir faces another existential threat. Russia’s population is collapsing. The fertility rate needed to maintain a population is 2.1 in developed countries with low infant mortality. For Russia, the number is likely higher. The fertility rate in Russia before the war was about 1.50-1.60. But that number hides Putin’s real problem. The fertility rate of the Buddhist Tuvans is 2.97, and for Muslim Chechnya, it is 2.57 — for ethnic Russians, the fertility rate is much lower than the national average, while the fertility rate of Russia’s minorities is above the average. So the minority population is growing and the ethnic Russian population is collapsing. That was before 100s of thousands of more well-to-do draft-age Russians left to escape mobilization. It is also before the effect of the sanctions on the economy and the war further depresses fertility rates. By the end of the century, ethnic Russians could be a minority in the Russian Federation. Talk about pissing in the Russkiy Mir punch bowl! Mother Russia will no longer be Russian or Orthodox Christian. That’s got to have Putin’s Slavic nationalists freaking out. There are currently 105 million ethnic Russians in Russia’s population of 145 million. Adding 40 million Ukrainian Slavs and 9 million Belorussian Slavs could go a long way to keeping Russia white and Slavic. It's why Russia has kidnapped as many as 200,000 Ukrainian children and ‘re-educated’ them into loyal Russians. The Existential Threat of Indoor Plumbing The biggest threat to Putin of a Ukraine integrated with Europe is not military. A Ukraine that leaves behind its corrupt and dysfunctional Soviet past, that has growing economic opportunities, and the rule of law, where citizens are not at the mercy of corrupt officials, criminal organizations, and oligarchs, and where even the average working stiffs have toilets, washing machines and a TV. A Slavic country, a former Soviet Republic, right on Russia’s border enjoying success as a Western democracy is an existential threat to Putin’s rule especially now that he has gone all in on Ukraine and destroyed the Russian economy. Before people comment about the sanctions being ineffective, economies run on credit. Companies and governments issue bonds so they can function. All of Russia’s bonds will go into default in the spring. The entire credit system in Russia will freeze and businesses will not be able to function. Russia’s central and private banks are cut off from the global monetary system. The ships that carry Russian oil can not get insurance if they violate price caps. The full impact of the draconian sanctions has not yet kicked in, nor has the impact of 100s of thousands of Russia’s best and brightest leaving the country, who likely won’t be returning. A defeat in Ukraine, combined with images of Ukraine’s economy rebuilding and flourishing while Russia’s economy, which was pathetic before the war, continues in a downward spiral will be a disaster for Putin. Images and reports from returning soldiers of indoor plumbing in Ukraine are likely more of a threat to the survival of the current Russian system than Leopard tanks or HIMARS. The End of the Myth of Putin Putin has backed himself into a corner. Either he wins in Ukraine or the idea of Russkiy Mir and the Putin project goes down in flames. Everything that he has built the myth of Putin and Putinism on is crumbling. The idea was that the West and NATO were weak and fragmented. The woke, gay, Western armies were no match for Russian he-men. That Ukraine was inferior to Russia and could be easily brought in line. That the Russian army was an invincible great bear to be feared. That Putin was a master strategist that a Jewish comedian in Ukraine and a senile US president were no match for. It seems that not only US Republican politicians but also Putin and his inner circle drank that Kool-aid. Putin began believing his own BS. That made for some fatal mistakes in strategy. Putin was in a bubble making plans based on his fantasy world that proved a disaster in the real world. Decisions are not always made based on logic and rational thinking... fabulist thinking, and absurd ideologies have often been the force behind some historic decisions with dire consequences. Because of the stakes as Putin sees them, the only thing that will stop Putin and Putinism is a crushing defeat in Ukraine. It’s the only way that the Ukrainians, the West, and Putin’s extended “Russian World” can have peace and security. The allies need to stop wasting time and go all in on supporting the Ukrainians with whatever equipment they need. The quicker this ends the less risk of unwanted and unintended consequences there is. The last thing you want is to give more time to Putin and his band of geniuses to ‘think’ and react. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/4/2151065/-Putin-s-Jihad Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/