(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Chinese Balloon - Espionage or a wayward science experiment? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-04 The Chinese Balloon — which flies no more — was it a spying machine or something more mundane? Speculations are flying wild, with experts and arm-chair experts offering their unique informed and uninformed opinion, all without any firsthand knowledge of the mysterious balloon and most without the understanding of the technology behind modern high-altitude balloons and modern espionage techniques. But it is fun, I suppose, to speculate and argue about a subject, where our fears, our imaginations and our passion for debate are our guides. Here is a thread from someone who is an expert in balloon technology and his informed opinion on the subject. Keep in mind, that like others, he is not privy to the information the Pentagon may have on the Chinese balloon. To summarize, Richard is deeply skeptical that this is a surveillance or espionage mission. In his opinion, this is most likely “part of an experiment in communications or precision agriculture monitoring or methane emission surveillance” gone awry. Source: fosstodon.org/... Richard continues - In fact, the photos of the balloon in question bear a striking resemblance to later Loon vehicles - a platform adapted to long-duration communication and earth observation, not stealth. Could you use it for espionage? I suppose, but it wouldn’t get you much beyond what advanced spy satellites can get, which puzzlingly the US has already admitted. So what would be the point? Loon vehicle photo: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/0 There are some signals intercept applications that the close proximity of a high-altitude #balloon (vis a vis a satellite) might afford. Still, those are probably available to Chinese national “tourists” driving through Montana, or hitching a ride on general aviation airplanes, with far less risk of an international incident. And if you were going to use a HAP (high altitude platform) or HIBAL (high altitude balloon) for that, you could make something _way_ stealthier for that purpose. Long story short (too late), some well-funded HIBAL effort in (presumably) China royally screwed up their flight termination and botched the steering on their decidedly-not-stealthy, almost-certainly-not espionage #balloon, perhaps as part of an experiment in communications or precision agriculture monitoring or methane emission surveillance, and someone in the US decided to exploit this for PR purposes. Which is just kinda dumb and not helpful all around. Here is another similar thread on the subject from someone with some expertise and experience in these matters. Although he concludes that this unlikely to be a weather balloon and **could** be a spy balloon. x Next Q: What’s it supposed to be watching? Well, there are a few Air Force bases in MT involved in nuclear weapons. But it’s unclear what could a balloon would learn. These facilities have been there for many decades and can even be seen on google maps…https://t.co/y762nj4voS — Geoff Brumfiel (@gbrumfiel) February 3, 2023 High Altitude Balloons High-altitude balloons are used for many science studies in areas such as climate science, earth observation and astrophysics like this one by NASA source.wustl.edu/… - x On the #WinterSolstice, the Wallops balloon teams were on the ice in Antarctica and launched the SPIDER payload, a mission that will study the cosmic microwave background. Follow its flight progress: https://t.co/KhSfd2lnl2 pic.twitter.com/RDGm78ipwL — NASA Wallops (@NASA_Wallops) December 22, 2022 Few facts about high-altitude balloons — High-altitude balloons can reach between 18 and 37 km altitude. In 2002, a balloon named BU60-1 reached a record altitude of 53.0 km. Commercial airliners fly below 40,000 feet (12 km). The highest-performing fighter aircraft typically do not operate above 65,000 feet (20 km), although spy planes such as the U-2 have a service ceiling of 80,000 feet (24 km) or more. www.reuters.com/… The Chinese balloon was traveling at 66,000 feet (20 km) altitude. Here is a deeper look at Google’s Loon project, which was terminated after a set of successful deployments and after demonstrating the technology to hover a balloon over specific areas by “riding” the winds at different altitudes. x YouTube Video Imaging satellites Imaging satellites take high resolution images of earth for various applications from land, ocean and forestry management to reconnaissance and military use. Most of them operate in low earth orbit at altitudes 500 km and lower. Commercial satellites have sub-meter resolutions. The best know imaging satellites from China are part of the GaoJing-1 / SuperView-1 constellation. Number of satellites = 4. 20+ more to be added, including ones with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Resolution: sub-meter The Kwai Tsing Container Terminals in Hong Kong as observed by one of the SuperView 1 satellites (image credit: Beijing Space View). www.eoportal.org/... SuperView Neo-1 first 30 cm pictures show the McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas of USA and Qatar’s capital Doha. The satellites are in-orbit testing and calibration by China Siwei Surveying and Mapping Technology Co., Ltd(China Siwei). spacenews.com/... Epilogue So, was the balloon a Chinese spy mission? Perhaps, we will never find out, although the Pentagon certainly will, if they don’t already do. Did the Pentagon over-react? Or are they concerned not so much about the surveillance aspect but about the technology that might allow balloons to travel across the globe, be controllable and could transmit data back via satellites? Here is an appropriate song for these curious set of events - x YouTube Video x YouTube Video Happy Saturday. 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