(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 354: continued offensive operations [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-11 The Russian leadership faces the difficult choice of either continuing to deplete its forces, scale back objectives, or conduct a further form of mobilisation. Russian forces targeted southern Ukraine with air, missile, and aerial and maritime drone strikes overnight on February 10-11. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted 20 of 24 Russian UAVs and one Kh-101 missile overnight.[17] Russian forces chiefly targeted energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kryryi Rih, and Khmelnytskyi cities.[18] Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces used a naval drone to strike the Zatoka road and rail bridge in Odesa Oblast (28km south of Odesa City on the Black Sea coast), the first observed instance of Russian forces operating unmanned naval drones.[19] The footage suggests that the bridge may have sustained severe damage, but the true degree of damage is currently unknown. Russian forces also conducted airstrikes against Snake Island, and Head of the Ukrainian Joint Coordination Press Center of the Southern Forces Nataliya Humenyuk suggested that Russian forces conducted these strikes to demonstrate that Russian forces have not forgotten about offensive actions in southern Ukraine.[20] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces currently lack the ability to threaten southern Ukraine with a full-scale offensive. The Ukrainian Operational Command South stated that Russian forces are trying to incite panic in the areas bordering Moldova.[21] Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast in the current circumstances of the Russian Armed Forces. Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Andriy Chernyak, stated that Russia does not have the resources necessary to launch a large-scale offensive operation on February 24 to coincide with the anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion.[1] Chernyak noted that Russians are preparing to intensify their attacks in eastern Ukraine in the next few weeks and are currently searching for weak spots in Ukrainian defenses. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have regained the initiative on the Svatove-Kreminna line but that the offensive has not yet reached its full tempo.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson, Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, also noted that the Russian leadership had ordered the capture of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts’ administrative borders and said that the grinding Russian operations in Bakhmut are a “symbol” of Russia’s inability to conduct rapid and powerful offensive operations.”[3] ⚡️ The Ukrainian army can start its counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine. The most likely destination is Melitopol, The New York Times The occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region is located at the intersection of two important highways and a critical railway line. pic.twitter.com/RC3PQyxSwD Mr. Zelensky’s political party will replace Ukraine’s defense minister , Oleksii Reznikov. The expected move comes amid a widening corruption scandal , although Mr. Reznikov was not implicated in wrongdoing. In its new push in the east, Russia is relying on masses of troops to overrun Ukrainian positions. The strategy has come at a cost of As the war intensifies in Eastern Ukraine, doctors struggle to handle an influx of injuries and soldiers fret over the prospect of new waves of conscripts arriving from Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine pleaded with Britain to supply his country with fighter jets , making his dramatic appeal during a Russian forces’ reported culmination and tactical failures around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, have likely further weakened the Russian ultranationalist community’s belief that Russian forces are able to launch a decisive offensive operation. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces failed to quickly advance in the first days of their offensive to capture Vuhledar and that Russian forces had lost the initiative by the end of January due to Ukrainian forces’ rapid transfer of reserves to the area.[6] The milblogger made his assessment that the Russian offensive to capture Vuhledar has likely culminated in response to viral footage showing Ukrainian forces destroying a disorderly column of Russian mechanized forces in the Vuhledar area.[7] Russian milbloggers seized on the footage to criticize the Russian military command for repeating the same failures that have plagued the Russian military throughout the war in Ukraine, with one prominent milblogger arguing that such incidents illustrate that the Russian army is unable to conduct an offensive along the entire Donetsk front.[8] 89% of Ukrainians would continue to fight even in the event of a nuclear attack on a Ukrainian city, according to the representative survey commissioned by the Munich Security Conference. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/GpBdGPWulM ⭕️ #UkraineRussiaWar : 🇷🇺 #Russia , it seems, is in a bind, growing tighter by the day as the war drags on. It needs to sell oil and gas to fuel its war, but many of those same sales help the economies of its enemy's allies. https://t.co/bGIjdKG6wl via @RANDCorporation Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast in the current circumstances of the Russian Armed Forces. Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Andriy Chernyak, stated that Russia does not have the resources necessary to launch a large-scale offensive operation on February 24 to coincide with the anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion.[1] Chernyak noted that Russians are preparing to intensify their attacks in eastern Ukraine in the next few weeks and are currently searching for weak spots in Ukrainian defenses. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have regained the initiative on the Svatove-Kreminna line but that the offensive has not yet reached its full tempo.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson, Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, also noted that the Russian leadership had ordered the capture of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts’ administrative borders and said that the grinding Russian operations in Bakhmut are a “symbol” of Russia’s inability to conduct rapid and powerful offensive operations.”[3] x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 11 Record troop losses, artillery almost 3x the 7-day average, 60+ missiles intercepted TODAY'S REPORT: 1140 troop losses ⬆ 7-day troop average: 899 ⬆ 43 equipment* losses ⬆ 7-day equipment* average: 36 ⬆ * Land-based 📈 https://t.co/djH83TsVXu pic.twitter.com/zy7BDcJwub — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) February 11, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1- Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove amidst conflicting claims about Russian advances on February 11. A Russian milblogger claimed that battles near Hryanykivka (53km northwest of Svatove) are ongoing and that Russian forces established control over Dvorichna (55km northwest of Svatove).[22] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completely captured Dvorichne (53km northwest of Svatove) on February 10, and it is possible that this milblogger confused the two settlements.[23] Another prominent milblogger argued that it was premature to assess whether Russian forces captured Dvorichne as it is notably far away from Russian positions, but another milblogger noted that this milblogger likely mistook Dvorichne for Dvorichna.[24] ISW has not observed visual confirmation that Russian forces are in Dvorichne nor that Russian forces have made any advances closer to Dvorichna. A Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault towards Stelmakhivka (15km west of Svatove).[2] www.understandingwar.org/... x Russian war reporter from russian state TV, Aleksandr Sladkov, promotes famous russian nazi Aleksei Milchakov who says that Ukrainians must be destroyed so they can't raise children. We are appreciate these videos. They help to debunk russian lies. RT highly appreciated 🙏 pic.twitter.com/owEVDHDBYy — Be brave like Ukraine 🌻 (@ukrbravery) January 21, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continue to prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi told US Joint Chief of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley on February 11 that Russian forces conduct up to 50 attacks daily in the direction of Donetsk City and conduct constant attacks around Bakhmut.[31] Zaluzhnyi stated that fierce fighting continues around Vuhledar and Marinka and that Ukrainian forces have managed to regain previously lost positions in Donetsk Oblast.[32] Zalzuhnyi added that effective artillery is the key to battlefield success in these areas of the frontline and noted that this requires both weapons and ammunition.[33] Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on February 11. Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that there were 39 combat engagements between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area in the past 24 hours.[34] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut, Krasna Hora (6km north of Bakhmut), and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[35] Geolocated footage published on February 11 shows Russian forces walking freely in the eastern part of Krasna Hora and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the settlement.[36] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces encircled Ukrainian forces in Krasna Hora and that Wagner Group fighters currently hold positions in the southeastern part of Paraskoviivka (7km north of Bakhmut).[37] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Wagner Group elements conducted assaults in the direction of Fedorivka (18km north of Bakhmut).[38] Geolocated footage posted on February 11 indicates that Wagner Group fighters likely secured marginal advances in the northeast outskirts of Bakhmut.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted assaults in the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[40] Geolocated footage published on February 11 shows a destroyed bridge over the Siverskyi Donets Canal along the T0504 highway west of Ivanivske, and a Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed the bridge to set conditions for a withdrawal from Bakhmut.[41] Ukrainian forces are unlikely to have destroyed the bridge and likely intend to maintain critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Bakhmut as they continue to defend the city. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia claimed that the DNR 132nd Brigade of the 1st Army Corps made unspecified advances in the direction of Toretsk (23km southwest of Bakhmut).[42] www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in southern Ukraine on February 11.[51] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces increased their sabotage and reconnaissance operations along the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline.[52] Rogov also expressed continued concern that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a possible future counteroffensive. Russian forces are likely draining the Kakhovka Reservoir north of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. NPR reported that Russian forces deliberately opened the sluice gates of the Kakhovka Reservoir immediately after they blew the dam bridge during the withdrawal from west (right) bank Kherson Oblast on November 11.[53] NPR noted that the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir dropped from 16.1 meters on December 1, 2022, to 14.1 meters on February 6. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that water levels in the Kakhovka Reservoir are decreasing uncontrollably and will threaten the security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)’s ability to draw water from the reservoir for its reactor cooling systems if the water level dips below 13.2 meters.[54] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi corroborated this statement, noting that the current water level does not pose a threat to the ZNPP but may threaten the ZNPP’s security if the water level continues to drop.[55] www.understandingwar.org/... x 10 Day Precipitation and Snow Forecast (through FEB 21). 2022-2023 winter precipitation has been very dry, 100-130 mm below normal with meager snowfall. Next 2 weeks show 15-25 mm precip (15-25 cm snowfall) which will contribute to a potentially abbreviated spring #MudSeason. pic.twitter.com/mZ5zdFTbJm — David Helms (@davidhelms570) February 11, 2023 x The Swedish company SAAB plans to increase the production of NLAW ATGMs to 400,000 per year in two years due to the extraordinary global demand for them, caused by the effectiveness demonstrated in Ukraine. https://t.co/yAYmy3OlNH — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 11, 2023 @DefenceU "This is what you'll get This is what you'll get This is what you'll get When you mess with us"— Radiohead x Top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov couldn't be more furious: he is enraged about Zelensky's trip to Europe, deliveries of Western weapons, comments from viewers and even his own production team. Watch Solovyov unravel:https://t.co/hQgYSRutJW — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) February 11, 2023 x russian Kalibr cruise missile after a meeting with Ukrainian air defense pic.twitter.com/avze28eYa3 — Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) February 11, 2023 x Kostyantinivka - Bakhmut road bridge over the canal has been destroyed. This greatly impedes the Ukrainian ability to counterattack west of Bakhmut and limits the usefulness of such operations. Bakhmut is now definitely reliant on a single road. pic.twitter.com/C7acd3p5VA — John Helin (@J_JHelin) February 11, 2023 x Multiple accounts claiming that an Ukrainian offensive on Kreminna has started and supplying this footage. #Kreminna #Luhansk #Ukrainepic.twitter.com/iX33S22H7d — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 10, 2023 x More on the role of the UK state in the war...https://t.co/tCdtSxIw75 — AngryWorkers (@WorkersAngry) February 11, 2023 x We must remember that ultranationalist right-wing Nazis murdered 6 million Jews-many by collaborators in Ukraine- a few millions of Roma & thousands of LGBTQ & disabled people. Remember that the Soviet Union suffered 20 million casualties defeating them & liberating the camps. https://t.co/ZMs3Nbh1yo — Adnan A. Husain (@adnanahusain) January 27, 2023 x British industry will build 15% by value of each of the 3,000-plus planned F-35s, creating and sustaining over 20,000 jobs across the UK. BAE Systems, Collins Aerospace and Rolls-Royce are just some of the more than 100 UK-based suppliers. #UKmfg🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/a6OZ1dpU9Z — Jefferson (@Jefferson_MFG) January 28, 2023 Russian forces targeted southern Ukraine with air, missile, and aerial and maritime drone strikes overnight on February 10-11. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted 20 of 24 Russian UAVs and one Kh-101 missile overnight.[17] Russian forces chiefly targeted energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kryryi Rih, and Khmelnytskyi cities.[18] Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces used a naval drone to strike the Zatoka road and rail bridge in Odesa Oblast (28km south of Odesa City on the Black Sea coast), the first observed instance of Russian forces operating unmanned naval drones.[19] The footage suggests that the bridge may have sustained severe damage, but the true degree of damage is currently unknown. Russian forces also conducted airstrikes against Snake Island, and Head of the Ukrainian Joint Coordination Press Center of the Southern Forces Nataliya Humenyuk suggested that Russian forces conducted these strikes to demonstrate that Russian forces have not forgotten about offensive actions in southern Ukraine.[20] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces currently lack the ability to threaten southern Ukraine with a full-scale offensive. The Ukrainian Operational Command South stated that Russian forces are trying to incite panic in the areas bordering Moldova.[21] www.understandingwar.org/... [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/11/2152428/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-354-continued-offensive-operations Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/