(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 357: materiel burn rates begin to catch up [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-14 Whatever plans Ukraine’s allies arrive at by the end of meetings that conclude on Wednesday, it appeared clear that they would be too late to help the city of Bakhmut, where Russian forces appeared close to their first significant victory in months after a drawn-out battle that has cost untold lives on both sides. In the last weeks of the war, Russia seems to have suffered its biggest losses since the end of February 2022, the first week of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. An army general has pointed out Vladimir Putin's failures in his invasion of Ukraine, saying the war-torn nation remains "free" while Russia "is now a global pariah" almost one year on. https://t.co/YQSQS0hugq Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused of being "wrong" about his initial theories on Ukraine ahead of the one year anniversary of the illegal invasion. The leader made baseless claims prior to his "special military operation" on February 24 last year that his neighbours had to be "demilitarised and de-Nazified". However, the move was a ploy to launch an assault in a bid to take masses of land as he believed Ukrainians and Russians are "one people" and it should be in charge. President Putin would have likely expected Ukraine to surrender given the size of his army, but that proved to be wrong as the war continues to rage on with no signs of slowing down just days from the somber one-year milestone. US Army General Mark Milley has spoken about Vladimir Putin's failures in the invasion during an address in Belgium on Tuesday (local time). Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images He accused the leader of being "wrong" about his beliefs of Ukraine prior to his "special military operation" on February 24. Picture: Contributor/Getty Images United States Army General Mark Milley took a swipe at President Putin's failures, saying Russia has become a "global pariah" - a nation considered an outcast from the international community - given their relentless pursuit of Ukraine. "... Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance and act with impunity," he said on Tuesday (local time) at a defence conference in Belgium. "He was wrong. Ukraine remains free. They remained independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger. And Russia is now a global pariah. And the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience." He then added Russia had ultimately "lost" the war given it was still ongoing and the fact that his soldiers suffered various setbacks in recent months. "They've lost strategically, operationally and tactically. And they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield," General Milley said. www.skynews.com.au/... x Western intelligence shows Russians amassing aircraft on Ukraine border https://t.co/RmXgvc4Zhv — Arturo - Love Hugs Bubbles Smiles Dreams Kisses (@zr1uro) February 15, 2023 In Benjamin Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia. The war will be expensive, cost lives and likely last at least a few years — or even become interminable. It will tax the American and European defense industries, especially when it comes to munitions, and could cause economic ruin in Russia. All this while the possibility of nuclear escalation remains. And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned. “For this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch of Ukraine or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters during a visit to Germany last month. “That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult.” Milley has insisted the war will likely end at the negotiating table — at some point. Officials and experts expect a bloody spring, as Russia sends new conscripts to the front line and Ukraine tries to repel an offensive while mounting its own. As the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing. But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO. www.defensenews.com/... x At the end of september, yes. A team of journalists from Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Baltic states publishes losses on both sides every week or two weeks since the beginning. I have compiled everything in a spreadsheet with link to source. https://t.co/S7I3KwZ0Y4 — Jonathan Goyette (@jogoyette) February 14, 2023 x The @DFRLab's latest #RussianWarReport🇷🇺 covered #Bakhmut, an alleged Russian agent captured, new Russian maps with redrawn borders to include eastern Ukraine, and more! Catch up on the latest: https://t.co/Y1rbPX8iy9 — DFRLab (@DFRLab) February 14, 2023 Western reporting indicates that there continue to be Western concerns about Ukraine’s determination to hold Bakhmut. The Washington Post also reported that US defense planners assess that Ukrainian forces are unable to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive and have urged Ukraine to prioritize the spring counteroffensive over defending Bakhmut.[5] ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine.[6] Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut has forced the Kremlin to expend much of the Wagner Group as a force and commit high-value Russian airborne forces to sustain attritional advances.[7] Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut has degraded significant Russian forces and will likely set favorable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive. Had Russian troops taken Bakhmut without significant Ukrainian resistance they could have hoped to expand operations in ways that could have forced Ukraine to construct hasty defensive positions in less favorable terrain. Therefore, Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut and undertaking an effort to set conditions for a counteroffensive are likely complementary, not mutually exclusive, activities considering that Russian forces would have continued their offensive beyond Bakhmut had Ukraine yielded the city earlier. www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1- Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction on February 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian ground attacks near Hrianykivka, 16km northwest of Kupyansk.[14] Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting intensified on this sector of the front and that Russian forces entered Lyman Pershyi (10km northeast of Kupyansk), advanced around Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), and launched an offensive effort near Masiutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk).[15] One Russian source made an unsubstantiated claim that Ukrainian officials are evacuating Kupyansk in anticipation of Russian offensives.[16] Former Russian officer and prominent milblogger Igor Girkin downplayed claims of Russian offensive operations in this area and characterized them as battles of local importance resulting in tactical gains.[17] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself, north of Bakhmut near Fedorivka (15km northeast), and north of Bakhmut near Paraskoviivka (5km north).[26] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Colonel Serhii Cherevaty stated that Russian and Ukrainian troops made contact 17 times within Bakhmut on February 13 and denied Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claim that Wagner troops captured Krasna Hora (4km north of Bakhmut).[27] Prigozhin posted an expletive-filled rant on February 14 in which he emphasized that Wagner is nowhere near completing the encirclement of Bakhmut due to continued Ukrainian defense of the area.[28] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces have cut the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway and that fighting is ongoing in Paraskoviivka, from where Wagner Group fighters advanced towards Vasyukivka (12km north of Bakhmut).[29] Geolocated footage posted on February 13 shows Russian forces have advanced within one-kilometer southeast of Vasyukivka.[30] One Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are making marginal advances north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka and in southwestern Bakhmut itself.[31] Russian sources continued to discuss Russian attacks towards settlements southwest of Bakhmut along the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway, particularly Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.[32] www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed offensive operations in Kherson, Mykolaiv, or western Zaporizhia oblasts on February 14. Russian forces continued routine shelling along the southern axis on February 14.[40] Russian forces are likely prioritizing efforts to increase combat and defense readiness of forces in southern Ukraine while exaggerating the threat of a coming Russian offensive in this direction to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Nataliya Humenyuk reported on February 14 that Russian forces are preparing for actions in all directions along the southern axis while attempting to create the impression that they are closing in on Ukrainian positions by using sabotage and reconnaissance groups and placing checkpoints, observation posts, and ammunition warehouses on islands on the Dnipro River delta.[41] Humenyuk added that Ukrainian forces are destroying these points. Humenyuk also noted that Russian forces deployed 200 members of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to Kherson Oblast to restore order among demoralized, dissatisfied Russian units and increase pressure on the local population.[42] A comparison of satellite imagery from January 21 and February 13 shows that Russian forces have constructed new trenches and barriers along the T2202 highway between Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, and Armyansk, Crimea.[43] Russian-backed Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Rogov on February 14 denied Western reports that Russia may be deliberately lowering Kakhovka Reservoir water levels to create an ecological disaster and shut down Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s (ZNPP) cooling system.[44] Rogov accused Ukrainian forces of striking the Nova Kakhovka Dam and causing the water level to fall and then using the situation to discredit Russian management of ZNPP.[45] www.understandingwar.org/... x 🔥🔥😎 ⏺ The SBU exposed the scammers who stole UAH 100 million from the accounts of Mariupol residents . The head of the organization turned out to be a man from the inner circle of Dushulin's penis. The stolen funds of the Mariupol residents were transferred to the "DPR". pic.twitter.com/xZnjTg8DnG — 🇺🇦 C.A. Tim Gravett 🇨🇦 🍁🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@TimGravett) February 15, 2023 x Underground organizations are helping dissenters to get out of Russia, usually just one step ahead of the law. Working from outside the country, they plan escape routes that can include cars, travel money, safe houses, border crossings and visas. https://t.co/jbV1OV5STC — The New York Times (@nytimes) February 14, 2023 x British defense companies are negotiating with their Ukrainian counterparts on the possible launch of production of their weapons and equipment in Ukraine — @Telegraph Senior officials have traveled to Ukraine to set up joint ventures to manufacture Western weapons under license — Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) February 12, 2023 NATO leaders met in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss providing further military aid to Ukraine, including potentially heeding President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s calls for fighter jets. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said ahead of the meeting that the military alliance planned to increase its ammunition stockpile targets as Kyiv is burning through shells at a rapid rate. Stoltenberg also noted that its was more important that Finland and Sweden’s applications to join NATO were ratified quickly than approved at the same time. www.cnbc.com/... x If you bet on a regime change campaign kicking off in Hungary, your odds just drastically improved https://t.co/wAKHzOcMXC — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) February 14, 2023 x "Under the guise of turning the century around, we underwrite violence in faraway lands and thereby dodge the actual challenges of changing our own culture." https://t.co/lf4UtY9Nq9 — Common Dreams (@commondreams) February 14, 2023 x Kadyrov says he is ready to send Chechens for fight in America if Putin gives the order 🤡#RussiaIsANaziState #Ukraine️ #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/yd3WwCCuoS — BAVOVNA (@BavovnaReports) February 12, 2023 x It almost seems that Prigozhyn is dead serious on taking over certain authority (not power (yet)) among the Russian army and the MoD is facing a major challenger in the face of Wagner, especially after catastrophes like in Vuhledar. Source: https://t.co/lLgwHjoXL2 — Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 13, 2023 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/14/2152861/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-357-materiel-burn-rates-begin-to-catch-up Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/