(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Virginia House of Delegates Districts (2023): HD 75, HD 82, HD 57, HD 58 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2023-02-14  

Today, I am looking at four more districts in the Virginia House of Delegates (HoD): HD 75, HD 82, HD 57, HD 58, all of which are located in the greater Richmond area. All of the districts are Republican held, except for HD 58, which is Dem held.

Virginia House District 75

VA HD 75 encompasses southeastern suburbs of Richmond such as Hopewell and Chester. HD 75 is a competitive district that seems to be trending somewhat towards the Dems, having gone from supporting Donald Trump by between 2 and 3 points in 2016 to supporting Joe Biden by about 5 points. Interestingly, in the 2017 Governor’s race, Dem Ralph Northam actually narrowly underperformed Hillary Clinton by about half a percentage point (despite the reverse being true statewide), and in the 2021 Governor’s race, Dem Terry McAuliffe lost the district by a larger 8-point margin. HoD Republican incumbent Carrie Coyner has been drawn into HD 75. Coyner has been representing HD 62, which is a very similar district to HD 75, having supported Biden by about the same margin (as HD 75) and covering most of the same geographic area. Note that the 2019 house race for HD 62 was not particularly competitive, with Republican Coyner winning the open seat by just over 10 points, but the 2017 house race (which was actually held under slightly redder boundaries, as the district was redrawn for 2019) was close, with then incumbent Republican Riley Ingram winning by 3.5 points. In 2021, Coyner was reelected by about 13 points, slightly outrunning her 2019 margin. HD 75 should be competitive this cycle, but as the incumbent, Coyner should have the edge (assuming she runs again). I’m classifying the seat as Lean Republican. Note that there currently aren’t any Democratic challengers for the seat.

Virginia House District 82

VA HD 82 is located on the southern outskirts of the Richmond area and is home to the community of Petersburg. Unlike most of the other districts covered in these articles, which are blue trending suburban districts that are heavily white, HD 82 is a predominately rural district that is almost evenly divided between black and white residents (with each making up about 45%-46% of the district). The seat seems to be moving away from the Dems, having gone from supporting Clinton by 14 points to supporting Biden by just under 11 points (despite Biden outperforming Clinton statewide). In 2017, Northam carried the district by about 13 points (also narrowly underperforming Clinton), and in 2021, McAuliffe lost the district by about 2 points, performing roughly on-par with his statewide performance. HoD incumbent Republican Kim Taylor, who has been representing HD 63, has been drawn into HD 82, giving the GOP the advantage of incumbency (assuming Taylor runs for reelection). Taylor has been representing HD 63, which has roughly the same partisan lean as HD 82 (at least based off Biden’s and Clinton’s margins). It should be noted that Taylor narrowly flipped HD 63 in 2021, as she defeated incumbent Democrat Lashrecse Aird by 1.5 points. Two Democrats are running for HD 82: auditor Kimberly Pope Adams and nonprofit executive Victor McKenzie. The Dems have a decent shot off flipping back the district (as the national environment should be stronger for them than it was in 2021), but it will be necessary to have strong African American turnout (which might be difficult given the nature of off-year elections). I’m classifying HD 82 as a Toss Up.

Virginia House District 57

VA HD 57 contains some of Richmond’s northern suburbs, including parts of Henrico and Goochland Counties. HD 57 is a competitive district that has swung towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Trump in 2016 by about 2 points to supporting Biden by between 5 and 6 points. In 2017, Northam did about a percentage point better than Clinton (losing the district by around a percentage point), while McAuliffe did slightly worse in 2021, as he lost the district by about 3 points. Given that McAuliffe did noticeably worse than Clinton and Northam statewide, the fact he only narrowly underperformed them in the district indicates the favorable trends for Democrats. No incumbents have been drawn into HD 57, making the seat open this cycle. Business owner David Owen is running on the Republican side, while two Democrats are running: Nurse Practitioner Susana Gibson and Henrico Election Board chair Bob Shippee. The seat should be highly competitive this cycle and a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats (especially given the favorable trends). I’m classifying HD 57 as a Toss Up.

Virginia House District 58

VA HD 58 contains areas immediately to the west of Richmond, such as the community of Tuckahoe. HD 58 has traditionally been a competitive district but has moved heavily towards the Dems in recent years having gone from supporting Clinton by a fairly narrow margin of between 3 and 4 points to supporting Biden by a considerably larger 16 point-margin, a leftward swing of over 12 points. In 2017, Northam performed similarly to Clinton, carrying the district by just over 3 points, while in 2021, McAuliffe actually narrowly outperformed both Clinton and Northam, as he carried the district by nearly 5 points (despite doing quite a bit worse than both of them statewide), further showing the promising trends for Democrats. Democrat incumbent Rodney Willet, who has been representing HD 73, has been drawn into the new district. HD 73 is a slightly bluer district than HD 58, having gone for Biden by just over 20 points. At the house level, HD 73 first flipped to the Democrats in 2017, with Democrat Debra Rodman narrowly defeating then incumbent Republican John O’Bannon by about 3 points, and Willet was able to hold onto the seat in 2019, winning the open race by about 4.5 points, and doing about half a percentage point better in his 2021 reelection bid (again, despite a worse environment for Dems). Given the favorable fundamentals and Willet’s incumbency advantage (assuming he runs), the Dems should be favored to hold the seat. For now, I’m classifying HD 58 as Likely Democrat, but I could see shifting the rating to “Lean Democrat” if the Republicans nominate a strong candidate. Note that there currently aren’t any Republican challengers for the seat.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/14/2152869/-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Districts-2023-HD-75-HD-82-HD-57-HD-58

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/