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New poll shows Jacksonville Democrat in strong shape in mayor's race, but caution is warranted [1]

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Date: 2023-02-15  

We always caution that no one should ever allow one poll to determine their view of a race even if there is literally one poll, and that’s especially true in a state that has been the source of plenty of Democratic heartbreak during the 21st century. It’s also very possible that the ugly battle between Davis and Cumber is hurting them both now among conservatives, but that these dissatisfied Republicans will come home in May. Both of these Republicans have also brought in far more money than Deegan, and the GOP may have the resources to use their financial advantage to go after her in round two.

However, it’s not quite clear exactly who will advance out of next month’s nonpartisan primary, though it’s all but certain that no one will take the majority of the vote necessary to win outright. St. Pete Polls has Deegan well in front with 35% while Davis leads another Republican, City Councilmember Al Ferraro, 18-11 for the second general election spot. Democratic state Sen. Audrey Gibson is just behind with 10%, while the well-funded Cumber unexpectedly lags with just 4%. Another 20% are undecided, while two minor candidates take the balance.

Cumber responded to these unfavorable numbers by publicizing a memo from Moore Information Group arguing that she’s really “in striking distance.” Ominously for Cumber, though, that release didn’t actually include any horserace numbers, though Florida Politics notes that it also implied that Deegan was in first when it said that “the second spot in the Blanket Primary is wide open.”

This poll comes as Davis and Cumber are involved in an ugly intra-party race. This month, the City Council announced that it was investigating whether Cumber "deceived or misled" it regarding her husband's involvement in the aborted 2019 attempt to privatize the municipal utility JEA, a major scandal that later led to federal indictments against two former executives who allegedly schemed to enrich themselves. Cumber, who back in 2021 did not disclose that her husband advised a firm that was bidding to manage JEA, responded by accusing Davis’ allies of being behind the probe.

Cumber also recently went up with a commercial accusing Davis, who is a former state representative, of having "voted to make it easier for criminals to cover up sexual assaults against children." Her newest ad goes after her rival for his 2013 vote to allow DACA recipients to get temporary driver's licenses, a bill that was vetoed by then-Gov. Rick Scott. Deegan, who hasn’t been on the receiving end of any negative television ads, on Wednesday went up with her first TV ad, a positive biographical piece that argues she’ll “be the change Jacksonville deserves.”

A win for Deegan or Gibson would end Jacksonville’s status as the largest city in America with a Republican mayor. Republicans seized control of city hall for the first time in a century when Mayor Ed Austin switched parties while in office in 1993, and they've only lost one mayoral election since then. That defeat came in 2011 when Democrat Alvin Brown scored a major upset in an open seat contest, a win that also made him Jax's first Black chief executive. Curry, though, retook this post four years later by narrowly unseating Brown 51-49.

Democrats over the last decade had been gaining ground in Jacksonville, which has been consolidated with Duval County since 1968. Both Sen. Bill Nelson and gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum took the city in 2018 even as they were narrowly losing statewide, while Joe Biden's 51-47 victory two years later made him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Duval County since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

In 2022, though, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio took Jacksonville 54-45, while GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis won it 55-44. Both those showings still put Duval County to the left of the state as a whole, though that may not have been much comfort to local Democrats especially as they lost the special election for sheriff 55-45. A win in this year’s mayoral race, though, would be a huge moral boost for Florida’s beleaguered Democrats.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/15/2153157/-New-poll-shows-Jacksonville-Democrat-in-strong-shape-in-mayor-race-but-caution-is-warranted

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