(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine update: Wagner Group alone has lost 30,000 men in the failed assault on Bakhmut [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-18 Of those 30,000 casualties, the U.S. estimates that over half have come in the last two months. And of the men that Wagner has sent to the slaughter at Bakhmut, 90% are thought to have been prisoner recruits. “Men that [Prigozhin] just plucked out of prisons and threw on the battlefield with no training, no equipping, no organizational command, just throw them into the fight, “ said Kirby. “Ninety percent killed were convicts.” Not only were most of those lost convicts, U.S. intelligence believes that Wagner continues to lean almost entirely on these prisoner troops for its recent gains around Bakhmut. So the idea that they’ve been cut off from a fresh supply of this cannon fodder may be the best indicator yet that what Ukrainian forces in the city are weathering right now is temporary—the last fitful squall of a storm front rather than a change in seasons. There have already been reports from parts of the front that Wagner’s role in areas both north and south of Bakhmut is fading. Pro-Russian military channels and bloggers continue to credit Wagner with everything that happens around Bakhmut, but Ukrainian sources have reported Wagner forces being replaced with Russian regulars. Considering the widening, highly-visible schism between Prigozhin and the the Russian military, and the admission that they’ve been cut off from access to more cannon fodder courtesy of the prisons, it’s unclear if Wagner Group will continue to be a force in or out of Ukraine. Five years ago, Bloomberg estimated the total size of Prigozhin’s mercenary force at around 6,000 men. By last December, the estimate was of 50,000 men, with 40,000 of those being convict recruits. Since the time of that estimate, Wagner has burned though at least 15,000. It’s not clear what they have left, but they are a declining force whose power is apparently no longer being refreshed. The zergs … are running out of zerglings. Ukrainian forces shelter in a doorway in Bakhmut as they wait out an artillery barrage. 16 Feb 2023 That 2017 Bloomberg article is worth another look just to put what’s happening in Ukraine in scale. In that article, analysts noted that Russia stopped any public reporting of military casualties previous to the first Ukraine invasion. However, insurance claims continue to give insight into how many people Russia has lost in Putin’s various internal and external campaigns. In the four years between 2012 and 2016, there were 3,198 claims related to death. That would cover not just the whole period of Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine, but ongoing losses over that period in Chechnya and in Syria. Going back further, the then Soviet Union lost an estimated 15,000 over the whole course of the 10+ year war in Afghanistan. The effort to capture Bakhmut over the last six month, just Bakhmut, is ten times what Russia lost everywhere across that four year period of study, including the entire first invasion of Ukraine. What’s happening at Bakhmut could easily end up being as costly to Russia as the entire failure in Afghanistan—a failure directly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Which certainly makes it seem as if Putin will be very, very lucky if Wagner Group is the only thing that disappears due to his disastrous management of this invasion. How is Bakhmut today? Bakhmut holds. The situation remains extremely difficult, conditions for Ukrainian forces remain extremely hard. Fighting on the north side of the city is extremely intense. However, the news on Friday was not of Russian advances, but of Ukrainian counterattacks. Earlier in the week, Russian forces were pressed back from efforts to cross the T0504 highway south of Ivaniske and forced to retreat to high ground near Klishchiivka. The word on Friday is that Ukrainian forces have continued to press in this area, driving back Russian lines once again. Lines represent approximate positions on Thursday. Open image in another tab for a larger view. I don’t have enough information to accurately redraw the lines at this point, but it’s a good bet that the area of Ukrainian control south of Ivaniske has advanced by another kilometer. There have been no claims that Ukrainian forces have actually pushed Russia back out of Klishchiivka and the fortified hilltop that overlooks that town. However, reports are that Ukraine has advanced across this area, further protecting both the T0504 highway and the road that runs through Khromove to connect to the highway at Chasiv Yar. Russia’s plan to place the city in a “pincer” by capturing Chasiv Yar seems to be running in reverse. North of the city, Russian sources claim that Wagner has capture Paraskoiivka and have published pictures that are supposed to prove it, but all images published so far are at the northern end of Paraskoiivka close to Blahodatne (see location of little red man) and there remains no evidence that they have taken the remainder of Paraskoiivka or the complex of road crossings in that area. Russian sources claim Wagner is now fighting its way south in the northern part of Bakhmut proper. Again, there seems to be no evidence that Russia has advanced in this area over the last two days. Ukrainian border control soldiers plan their next action in a Bakhmut basement. 16 Feb 2023 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/18/2153651/-Ukraine-update-Wagner-Group-alone-has-lost-30-000-men-in-the-failed-assault-on-Bakhmut Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/