(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 365: Year Two's win-lose-stalemate options for the end of the beginning [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-22 Exposed as a kleptocrat, his legitimacy draining away, Putin made one last attempt to change the narrative with another short victorious war. Instead, he precipitated a catastrophe that will surely destroy his regime. Waist Deep in the Big Muddy: Living with rogue Russia means living dangerously. This (war) should be a wake-up call to political leaders about the imperative to confront threats emanating from Russia’s rogue behavior—and to mitigate risks posed by lethal emerging technologies—before it becomes too late to reverse disaster. It remains difficult but still not impossible to see how Ukraine can win a drawn-out war of attrition. Now, with the Kremlin staging celebrations of the war in Moscow, some analysts have suggested that Russia might soon fire a larger than typical barrage not just to mark the anniversary of the Feb. 24 invasion but to try to overshadow the military setbacks it has suffered in a year of war. A barrage might also serve as a pointed rejoinder to the West, coming just days after Ukraine’s allies pledged to maintain their military support and President Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv. Kyiv has also been casting an anxious eye on Russian threats via two neighboring countries, Belarus and Moldova. Experts say they appear to pose minimal immediate risks, and military analysts have expressed doubt about Russia’s ability to open and sustain a new front in the war. But Western officials warn that Moscow could try and divert Ukrainian resources through feints and deceptions — which could come from anywhere. Still, the main thrust of Moscow’s offensive operations remains in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Russian forces are trying to break through Ukrainian defenses in five directions. “Despite all the pressure on our forces, the front line has not changed,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a late-night address on Tuesday. www.nytimes.com/... 'Ukraine will decide what victory looks like’ At the 1-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expectations about the final outcome run the gamut from the belief that a definitive Ukrainian victory is imminent to warnings that Russia will ultimately prevail. However, even some voices within the U.S. foreign policy establishment have expressed greater caution about Kyiv’s chances for victory in the long run. The most significant example was a January 7, 2023, op-ed by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates in the Washington Post. The title of the piece, “Time Is Not on Ukraine’s Side,” conveyed their concerns. As I’ve argued here, the worries that Rice and Gates expressed are warranted. It is difficult to see how Ukraine can win a drawn-out war of attrition. Russia’s material advantages—a population more than 3 times greater than Ukraine’s, a much larger, better equipped, active-duty military, and a far greater ability to mobilize reserve military forces—will become more important the longer the war continues. [...] Contentions that the Biden administration and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government “blocked” such a settlement appear to be excessive. However, there is little doubt that both governments intensely disliked the prospect of a neutral Ukraine, and they encouraged Kyiv to stay the course with promises of greater military aid. Since then, the reckless support of Ukraine coming from Washington and London has led to spiraling bloodshed and destruction. Biden needs to drastically alter his policy. Instead of continuing to provide a blank check of support to Ukraine, he should press Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to negotiate the best peace accord that it can with Russia. Such an agreement undoubtedly would require Ukraine to renounce ambitions for NATO membership and to recognize that Crimea is now part of Russia. Moscow has indicated (during Bennett’s mediation efforts and on other occasions) that in exchange for those concessions, it would drop demands for Ukraine’s “denazification” and demilitarization. The Kremlin likely also would agree to withdraw its forces from other portions of occupied Ukraine. The probable alternatives to such an admittedly imperfect peace agreement are a definitive Russian victory after a multi-year war of attrition or a cease-fire that would create the mother of all frozen wars, with all of the dangerous tensions that follow. www.19fortyfive.com/… x One year into the Ukraine war, @brian_kot and I write about Russia's brutal war of attrition against civilians + ethical problems arising from using untested technologies on the battlefield 👇👇https://t.co/OnoUdLGvis — Steven Feldstein (@SteveJFeldstein) February 22, 2023 The war continues with no end in sight. Neither side is ready to negotiate. Both are preparing to launch major offensives in the near future. Neither side has achieved a major breakthrough in recent months that would change the course of the war. Whereas Russia’s failure to win in a blitzkrieg prompted many predictions of Ukraine’s imminent victory, lately the commentary has been about a stalemate. Ukrainians, having tasted victory on the battlefield and united in their desire for justice and revenge, cannot accept a land-for-peace compromise. For Putin, whose war it is primarily, compromise is not an option after the humiliation of the failed campaign in pursuit of his maximalist objectives. This war was not existential for him when he began it, but it is now. He has staked his entire presidency on it and must win it. He is preparing for a long war. carnegieendowment.org/... x Sobering piece by @eugene_rumer on how, basically, there may be no satisfying (or even proper) conclusion to the war. Can't help thinking that even if Russia doesn't win a war of attrition, this doesn't mean Ukraine can win one. Hope I'm wrong. https://t.co/ItzVOSJbfG — Nicolas Bouchet (@nickbouchet) February 21, 2023 Once more, Putin weaved a story that seeks to justify his crimes against humanity and center himself and the invading forces as liberators and defenders. It is no surprise to hear him once more blame “the West” or liberalism gone mad. It is the same appeals that the Republican Party makes in the United States, that Viktor Orbán and Fidesz makes in Hungary. “Look at what they do to their own people,” he said, “the destruction of families, of culture and national identities, and the perversion of child abuse, including the normalization of pedophilia.” If it had been in English it could have been Ron DeSantis, Josh Hawley, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, or any number of Republican leaders. jaredyatessexton.substack.com/... x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 22 No update from Oryx's @Rebel44CZ today VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.11x losses to date ➡ 2.69x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡ 3.34x 30-day average ➡ 📈 https://t.co/GvzsO1AGCu pic.twitter.com/Rg6djn8brV — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) February 22, 2023 Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has pushed Minsk towards an even closer military cooperation with Moscow. Among others, Belarus has received S-400 air defense systems and Iskander missile systems from Russia. Last August, Lukashenko also announced that Moscow upgraded his nation’s Su-25s to enable them to carry tactical atomic weapons. Industry publications estimate the Belarusian military operate 67 Su-25 jets which makes the fighter the most prevalent combat aircraft in its fleet. The dictator also said that, since the war began, cooperation has been established between numerous Russian and Belarusian “enterprises that previously considered each other competitors,” including truck makers KAMAZ and Minsk Automobile Plant (MAZ). Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said in a recent analysis the “Kremlin will likely subsume elements of Belarus’ defense industrial base (DIB) as part of Moscow’s larger effort to reequip the Russian military to support a protracted war against Ukraine.” www.defensenews.com/... x The Russian invaders are attempting an offensive west and southwest of Kreminna in Luhansk region. They're coming to grief in the Serebryanka Forest, coming up against the formidable defences of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russians are suffering substantial losses. pic.twitter.com/5Qx55o8VZl — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) February 22, 2023 x Another Russian T-90M even with Nakidka thermal cover captured by Ukrainian forces and towed by an Oshkosh M1070. The Russian losses of that tank type are climbing fast and I’m running out of alternative words for “embarrassing”. Source: https://t.co/UeDCi8VapK#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/vANAtJheqH — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 22, 2023 About 200,000 people have gathered in Moscow to hear Vladimir Putin speak at a pro-war rally ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine MOSCOW — It was one of the biggest public celebrations of the war that Russia has seen since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — an overflow crowd at the country’s largest stadium, cheering images of destruction and songs about spilling blood and conquering Ukraine. Formally, the event was tied to Russia’s annual Defenders of the Fatherland holiday, honoring veterans, but coming two days before the anniversary of the invasion, it served as a televised show of popular support for the war, the armed forces waging it and the man behind it, President Vladimir V. Putin. www.nytimes.com/... In all, the celebration at Luzhniki Stadium reflected the Kremlin’s campaign to normalize the war for the Russian populace, a tacit recognition that it will not end any time soon. The event even featured some acknowledgment of Russian casualties, though not their enormous scale. In 2018 Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium hosted the Football World Cup Final. Today it was the scene of a stage managed, Kremlin-choreographed rally designed to show that Russians support Vladimir Putin and his ‘special military operation.’ We went along. Producer @BBCWillVernon x 1/ Cadets at the Moscow Police College have reported an attempt to forcibly mobilise them en masse under false pretences. They say they were locked in a hall while attempts were made to get them to sign up to join the army. They had to call the police to be released. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/XFOgM6LE4L — ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 22, 2023 2/ According to the Russian 'Mobilisation News' Telegram channel, "the cadets were assembled under the pretext of rehearsing a graduation ceremony. But representatives of the military enlistment office came to the meeting. 3/ "The students said that they were detained for an hour and a half in the college on Fabritiusa Street by their teachers - department head Vyacheslav Rozhko and teachers Sergey Vasilyev and Alexei Novikov, as well as 2 representatives of the Tushino military enlistment office." 4/ The students were handed mobilisation orders by the military registration and enlistment office staff and were pressured to sign them. However, they refused, leading an impasse in which they were locked into the hall while their instructors refused to let them go. 5/ Mobilisation News reports that student Maxim G., 19, "called the police asking for help. The boy said that he was a cadet in a police college and that he and his classmates had been locked in the auditorium to force him to go to the front." 6/ The police students were released after the police arrived at the police college to free them from the police instructors. The incident likely reflects another example of Russia's ongoing 'quiet mobilisation', targeting state employees. /end МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Что делать? • • • x It’s so unfair that people who are supporting us should pay for putin’s crimes. We must confiscate all russian money and use them to cover the expenses. It’s logical. It’s fair. This is the right thing to do.@CNN @KristinFisher pic.twitter.com/Gd7gGj3IUh — Kira Rudik (@kiraincongress) February 21, 2023 x Other than a few video of Ukrainian Forces being moved towards Transnistria over the last few days I haven’t observed any Significant Movements of Ukrainian Heavy Equipment that would be required if they wish to take the Region. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2023 CNN — Russia carried out a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that appears to have failed around the time President Joe Biden was in Ukraine, according to two US officials familiar with the matter. Russia notified the United States in advance of the launch through deconfliction lines under its New START treaty obligations, one official said, adding that “such testing is routine.” Another official said that the test did not pose a risk to the United States and that the US did not view the test as an anomaly or an escalation. The test of the heavy SARMAT missile – nicknamed the Satan II in the West and capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads – appears to have failed, officials said. It has been successfully tested before and had this one worked, US officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin would have highlighted the test in his State of the Nation address on Tuesday. Instead, Putin made no mention of the launch in the speech that lasted an hour and 45 minutes. He did, however, formally declare that Russia will be suspending his country’s participation in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States, imperiling the last remaining pact that regulates the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. edition.cnn.com/... x Many countries are reassessing their military might — and it's not just limited to Ukraine’s neighbors https://t.co/maYos6ot6T — Bloomberg Graphics (@BBGVisualData) February 22, 2023 x Other than a few video of Ukrainian Forces being moved towards Transnistria over the last few days I haven’t observed any Significant Movements of Ukrainian Heavy Equipment that would be required if they wish to take the Region. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2023 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/22/2154433/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-365-Year-Two-s-win-lose-stalemate-options-for-the-end-of-the-beginning Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/