(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . What’s in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict for China, and why now? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-22 Russia's pre invasion trade relationships By Iliya Kusa on June 21, 2022 The West should recognize the principle of the indivisibility of security, which holds that the security of one country shall not be fulfilled at the expense of the security of other countries; and that this principle must become the basis of a new international security architecture. Among the risks are the following: the toxic political situation is threatening China’s reputation and image abroad because of China’s close ties with Russia; political and ideological polarization in Southeast and South Asia is increasing; the war adds complexity to China’s relationship with Russia; and the Western economic sanctions enacted in response to the war have created challenges for Beijing in carrying out the Belt and Road Initiative as the sanctions and related financial restrictions are likely to imperil the transport of goods through Russia and Belarus. On the other hand, the war has opened up some major opportunities for China. A weakened Russia may drive Moscow away from the West and closer to Beijing as China’s “junior partner,” which is exactly how China has seen the relationship over the years. Furthermore, the war has triggered political, economic, and financial reactions from Europe and the United States, sometimes in unprecedented ways. This article was written in July 2022, but it holds up pretty well in all areas of US-Russia-China relations, including several areas of the relationship not high lighted above. Taiwan is always high on China’s lists of US transgressions because it appears to offer China’s best argument for US intervention in China’s internal affairs. They rarely or never include Hong Kong or the China Sea as examples of US interference in China’s internal affairs because their case is much weaker there. In any case, the security of other countries is a weak argument for the justification of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Given the lack of preparedness exhibited by Russian forces once the invasion began, it is obvious they did not believe they were invading a dangerous superior force. In other words, there’s nothing to fear here. Both China and Russia must admit they expected Russia to easily subdue an ill prepared and unarmed Ukraine. The second bullet point, however, begins to establish the true aspirations of China and how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is threatening them. The risk to China from the conflict in Ukraine has nothing to do with the US or Ukraine, but everything to do with the way Russia is going about its effort to subdue Ukraine. Russia’s reputation as a world power was demolished with in the first three weeks of its invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Russia’s atrocities and criminal activities against persons and property in the communities surrounding Kyiv during their initial thrust into Ukraine clearly established them as being a hoard of undisciplined murderous thieves. China is unwilling to allow its administration and military establishment to be tarnished by that behavior. The third bullet point is the answer to the question “what’s in a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine for China.” China needs an intact Russia to survive this conflict for diplomatic reasons. An unstable or unfriendly Russia on China’s border is a threat to China’s security. As the fighting continues in Ukraine and the infighting escalates at home, China is sensing an increasing signs of disarray in Russia. A threat serious enough to lead to regime change and possibly dissolution of the Russian Federation. When we add the tremendous growth in trade between Russia and China in 2022 the “why now” of China’s actions comes into focus: Ukraine and the Sino-Russian Relationship, An Update Jan 19, 2023 In the first 11 months of this year, Sino-Russian trade totaled US$172.41 billion, up 32 percent year on year. This would mean that that trade continued to grow after the war in Ukraine in February of 2022. The goal of both Moscow and Beijing is to hit an annual trade target of US $200 billion by 2024. The soaring trade volume this year was driven by Chinese imports from Russia, which increased by 47.5 percent to US$105.07 billion from January to November, according to Chinese customs officials. Eighty percent of these imports were minerals and crude oil. China has reaped a huge economic benefit from Russia’s weakened state that has resulted from the Western sanction placed on Russia for invading Ukraine and its poor performance on the ground in Ukraine. The Western sanctions has caused Russia to lose its primary marked for raw energy and mineral resources. China needs a negotiated end to the Ukraine conflict to avoid having to deal with the repercussions of an unstable Russia on its border and the possible loss of a major supplier of the raw energy and minerals that it needs to sustain and grow its manufacturing base. A peaceful Russia in its present depleted state will be easy pickings by China for decades to come. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/22/2154519/-What-s-in-a-peaceful-resolution-of-the-Ukraine-conflict-for-China-and-why-now Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/