(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . GOP bench for 2024 nomination is a mix of also-rans whose time is likely not now, not ever... [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-23 Some of the potential GOP candidates for 2:Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, Glenn Youngkin, Chris Sununu, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pompeo, Liz Cheney and Will Hurd. --Getty Images HANDICAPPING GOP CONTENDERS #4 what’s left Note: This is the last in a series of diaries handicapping the Republican presidential field for 2024. You needn’t agree with the analysis, but we can have fun discussing it. Let’s play. A young, rich and little-known tech entrepreneur who calls “wokeism” a national threat announced Tuesday night he is seeking the Republican presidential nomination. Vivek Ramaswamy, 37, announced his candidacy in a five-minute video posted online. WAPO, February 21, 2023 Of course! Mr, Ramaswamy announced online. Why not? The lineup of potential candidates for the GOP nomination next year reads like a small suburban subdivision HOA directory. InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022 The latest Interactive Twitter poll list of the likely candidates shows Trump and DeSantis leading the presumptive pack and by wide margins. While there is still so much time remaining before voters start choosing their favorites, the betting line among big donors is already coalescing around the favorites: field of dreams After the front runners, the GOP field for 2024 is seriously compromised by the appearance that most of the potential candidates are positioning themselves for the vice-presidential nod or 2028. Our last diary looked at Nikki Haley, who could easily be in this diary except that she has officially entered the fray and a DeSantis run, while undeclared, seems imminent. Polls matter little at this stage, but for the purposes here they suggest a narrative that puts in question the intentions of GOP back-benchers. The GOP's expansive field of primary candidates in 2016 was a major factor in creating the unlikely conditions that gave Donald Trump the nomination. Donald Trump using his combative style to reduce the field walked away with 1439 delegates, far exceeding primary runner-up Ted Cruz’s 552. Because of the large field of hopefuls looking to face Hillary Clinton, Trump won the primary season with 44% of the Republican primary votes. Depending on legal issues and his death-defying cholesterol count, Trump should feel secure in the nomination given the ever-growing field of contenders and his hold on the Republican base. He’s probably right. It is difficult to limit our discussion to the most likely as there are so few. It is even more fruitless to try to limit the discussion to the best of the lot— the better they are the less likely they are to contend in the current Republican environment replete with QAnon conspiracy adherents, disingenuous election deniers, and feral opportunists. I’ll stick my neck out and eliminate those who have less than a snowball's chance in hell and progress to candidates who are behind frontrunning Trump and DeSantis. So let’s play “what if” and handicap a few candidates not named DeSantis and Haley and try to analyze their chances to step in should something catastrophic befall the leaders. Ted Cruz, who has grown a manly beard since his 2016 run, pushed Trump all the way to the 2016 convention but has since weakened his cause for consideration as a national candidate. He has managed to add to his reputation as “most hated Senator” to add “least relevant”. He spent the past 7 years cozying up to the man he called a pathological liar in 2016. To further his reputation for being a phony, Cruz couldn’t decide whether to condemn or excuse the January 6 insurrection. Odds, beard and all, dead in the water. who has grown a manly beard since his 2016 run, pushed Trump all the way to the 2016 convention but has since weakened his cause for consideration as a national candidate. He has managed to add to his reputation as “most hated Senator” to add “least relevant”. He spent the past 7 years cozying up to the man he called a pathological liar in 2016. To further his reputation for being a phony, Cruz couldn’t decide whether to condemn or excuse the January 6 insurrection. Odds, beard and all, dead in the water. Mike Pompeo is the former CIA Director and Secretary of State during the Trump administration. He has, perhaps, the most polished resume in the group of potential candidates. West Point grad, Harvard Law, and U.S. representative before his Trump appointments. His autocratic creds are plentiful as well as evidenced by his being considered by some as the worst-ever Secretary of State. During his tenure career department officials quit because of his flouting of norms. He praised enemies of the U.S. and coddled dictators in his pursuit to follow the president’s lead. The department was demoralized and many others were either fired or forced into retirement. He could be a natural heir to the disaffected Republican base or add another level of mean to a ticket with either Trump or DeSantis at the top. His resume would help the Florida Mussolini but maybe not as much as some others here. is the former CIA Director and Secretary of State during the Trump administration. He has, perhaps, the most polished resume in the group of potential candidates. West Point grad, Harvard Law, and U.S. representative before his Trump appointments. His autocratic creds are plentiful as well as evidenced by his being considered by some as the worst-ever Secretary of State. During his tenure career department officials quit because of his flouting of norms. He praised enemies of the U.S. and coddled dictators in his pursuit to follow the president’s lead. The department was demoralized and many others were either fired or forced into retirement. He could be a natural heir to the disaffected Republican base or add another level of mean to a ticket with either Trump or DeSantis at the top. His resume would help the Florida Mussolini but maybe not as much as some others here. Chris Christie makes an interesting case for those who would renounce Trump in order to garner the anti-Trump sentiment within the party. Problem is that is not an enviable position to be in and there are better options for that small army within the GOP. Christie is also a terrible candidate whose debating skills as a lawyer and former governor of New Jersey have always been sorely lacking. He comes off as a loud-mouthed know it all who manages to alienate his audience on demand. The odds for Christie depend on the bad health of the rest of the crowd— slim and none. makes an interesting case for those who would renounce Trump in order to garner the anti-Trump sentiment within the party. Problem is that is not an enviable position to be in and there are better options for that small army within the GOP. Christie is also a terrible candidate whose debating skills as a lawyer and former governor of New Jersey have always been sorely lacking. He comes off as a loud-mouthed know it all who manages to alienate his audience on demand. The odds for Christie depend on the bad health of the rest of the crowd— slim and none. Mike Pence won’t win his own state. Beloved by no one and reviled by the GOP base, one wonders why he is even thinking about entering the race. It is rumored that even “mother” has her doubts. Pence will be the nominee only after a rapture cleanses the GOP base and leaves him standing to rule in the aftermath. won’t win his own state. Beloved by no one and reviled by the GOP base, one wonders why he is even thinking about entering the race. It is rumored that even “mother” has her doubts. Pence will be the nominee only after a rapture cleanses the GOP base and leaves him standing to rule in the aftermath. Liz Cheney could not win a GOP primary but has hinted at a Ralph Nader-like third-party run with the hopes of derailing Trump. She is too smart to think that that will have any other result other than to enhance the Trump candidacy by giving independents and sane Republicans a place to cast their vote that might otherwise go to Biden. I think she stands pat. could not win a GOP primary but has hinted at a Ralph Nader-like third-party run with the hopes of derailing Trump. She is too smart to think that that will have any other result other than to enhance the Trump candidacy by giving independents and sane Republicans a place to cast their vote that might otherwise go to Biden. I think she stands pat. Larry Hogan would in better times be a viable candidate for both the nomination and a chance in the general election. Paired with any number of Republican options like Tim Scott or Will Hurd, he would be a good ticket-mate in either position in any year but this one. He may be looking toward 2028 but who knows, the Republican landscape is difficult to predict until the fever in its base breaks. would in better times be a viable candidate for both the nomination and a chance in the general election. Paired with any number of Republican options like Tim Scott or Will Hurd, he would be a good ticket-mate in either position in any year but this one. He may be looking toward 2028 but who knows, the Republican landscape is difficult to predict until the fever in its base breaks. The rest of the field all share similar difficulties with those above. None appear to have a breakout gear in their repertoire. Chris Sununu, Asa Hutchinson, John Bolton, Kristi Noem, Glenn Youngkin, and the rest are either outside the mainstream of the current Republican Party or smaller fish in the GOP’s larger foul pond. Even as they try their damnedest to seem relevant, their attempts seem half-hearted as they are forced to come to grips with a party that has been hollowed out and overtaken. what if... The paradoxical nature of the current Republican Party only strengthens the candidacies of the current poll leaders, Trump and DeSantis. If they go at it in a primary battle and if Trump is able to run— there is a chance he won’t— DeSantis appears to be the beneficiary of the Trump base and big donor money. Recent articles have noted that donors are already backing DeSantis’ early efforts, knowing that Trump is craven enough to take their money and accept their apologies should he prevail. Unlike Trump, DeSantis’ VP choice is crucial to his ability to compete against Biden. Trump’s choice is almost inconsequential as his voters want only him. The head-to-head projections at this point are telling. Unless conditions change, the chance of a rerun of the 2020 election appears likely— and the odds should favor the Democratic ticket. But what if the 2020 combatants decide to (or it is decided for them) that they will not run? Biden’s age, Trump’s age, and legal problems are both real impediments to a rematch. Does DeSantis become the heir apparent and can he inspire the kind of slavish devotion that Trump’s voters delivered? Is Harris the default front-runner if Biden bows out? All good questions with few good answers. Those projections would likely invite additional candidates and further uncertainty into what is undoubtedly a watershed moment in our history. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/23/2153906/-GOP-bench-for-2024-nomination-is-a-mix-of-also-rans-whose-time-is-likely-not-now-not-ever Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/