(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 366: first day of the rest of the war [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-23 Czechs are producing inflatable HIMARS decoys The UN has overwhelmingly voted to call for Russia to immediately and unconditionally withdraw from Ukraine, marking one year since Moscow’s invasion by calling for a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace”. Applause broke out when the result was announced. The resolution on Thursday night saw 141 countries in favour with seven against and 32 abstentions, including China. Russia had worked hard to try to end its isolation by blaming the west for pouring arms into the region and by pointing to the growing hunger crisis it blamed on western sanctions. But Ukraine’s allies for their part had tried to maximise consultations, and in the resolution put a heavy emphasis on the willingness of Ukraine to seek dialogue. Ukraine was also persuaded to remove planned references to taking the Russian leadership to a special tribunal for committing war crimes. Several speakers said such a move would only make the search for peace more elusive. However, Ukraine’s allies failed to improve on numbers seen in the last vote on the issue in October immediately after Russia annexed republics in the east of Ukraine. In that vote 143 countries backed the resolution, with five against and 35 abstentions. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said: “By voting in favour of today’s UN general assembly resolution 141 UN member states made it clear that Russia must end its illegal aggression. Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be restored. One year after Russia launched its full-scale invasion global support for Ukraine remains strong.” www.theguardian.com/... UK x Czechia has already supplied Ukraine with 89 tanks, 226 infantry fighting vehicles, 38 howitzers, 6 air defense systems, 4 helicopters and ammunition. This was announced by the Prime Minister of Czechia and Giga Chad Petr Fiala. pic.twitter.com/ep3WoXbVK3 — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 23, 2023 UK Russian President Vladimir Putin likely continues to suffer from confirmation bias in his belief that Russia’s will to fight will outlast the West’s will to support Ukraine. The Financial Times (FT) cited unnamed officials close to the Kremlin stating that Putin assesses that “Russia is more committed to the war than the West is to Ukraine and [is] resilient enough to see out the economic pain.”[18] Unnamed Kremlin sources also told FT that Putin’s demands for loyalty over competence among elites is forcing them to refrain from being honest with him about the progress of the war, and noted that Putin gets information of “poor” quality as a result. Sources also revealed that most of Putin’s presidential administration and economic cabinet expressed that they do not support this war but use lies as a survival tactic, with only a small number of officials resigning since the start of the invasion. One longtime insider also observed that Putin is of “sound mind” and is “reasonable,” which supports ISW’s February 5 assessment that he is a highly calculated actor who places considerable emphasis on eliminating risks.[19] Insiders also revealed that Putin also withheld his plans to launch a full-scale invasion in February 2022 and his plans to occupy Crimea in 2014 from his closest advisors, with his circle of advisors recently tightening even more. The insider information indicates that Putin is prepared for Russia to suffer through a costly and exhausting protracted war under the conviction that the war will tire out Western support. Putin is also likely misinformed about the effectiveness of the Western equipment on the frontlines and its ability to impede his plans for a protracted war of attrition. The combination of Putin’s beliefs about Russian staying power and expectations of the collapse of Western will with the shrinking circle of advisors and the apparent unwillingness of insiders to contradict him likely create a strong confirmation bias in Putin’s observations of Western statements and outreach. Putin is likely to prioritize any indications of waning Western support or hesitancy over statements or indications of Western toughness or determination if this hypothesis is correct. Western leaders would do well to consider the likelihood that confirmation bias of this sort is shaping Putin’s perceptions in their own public and private statements and actions. www.understandingwar.org/... Key Takeaways The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations in Chernihiv Oblast and Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deliver boilerplate rhetoric in public events that present him opportunities to shape the Russian information space ahead of the year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin likely attempted to downplay recent surges of criticism regarding the integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR) into the Russian Armed Forces. Putin seems more concerned with appealing to ultranationalist pro-war ideologues with meaningless gestures than with presenting any new approach to achieving the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine. Putin likely continues to suffer from confirmation bias in his belief that Russia’s will to fight will outlast the West’s will to support Ukraine. A Russian source attempted to preempt Western discussions of releasing classified information regarding China’s considerations to provide lethal aid to Russia. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) fulfilled Wagner Group’s complete artillery ammunition request on February 23 following immense support for Prigozhin in the Russian information space. Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna. Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk Oblast. Russian authorities announced that they completed the repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge road spans ahead of schedule. Russian officials continue to offer incremental and insufficient benefits to support Russian military personnel and defense manufacturers. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian children through the installation of military-patriotic educational programs in occupied areas. www.understandingwar.org/... As days turned to weeks, and subsequently to months, the war progressed through phases. Defenders went on the offensive. Attacks were followed by counterattacks. The two sides engaged in hard-fought battles for key terrain—most notably cities. Front lines shifted rapidly at first, before settling into a more static pattern. Ukrainian offensives to recapture Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall made the battlefield more dynamic again, but this once more gave way to a comparative lull as winter set in. And now, twelve months into the war, many expect another phase to emerge as both sides plan likely spring offensives. What lessons should we be learning about modern war from the way this conflict has unfolded over its first year? What assumptions has the war challenged, and what assumptions has it reinforced? And what features will characterize the war in the months ahead? To address these questions and more, John Amble is joined in this episode of the MWI Podcast by retired Major General Mick Ryan. He served for more than thirty years in the Australian Army and commanded at platoon, squadron, regiment, task force, and brigade level. In his last position before retiring, he commanded the Australian Defence College. A scholar of war and the profession of arms, his experience has made him one of the most insightful observers of the war in Ukraine. mwi.usma.edu/… x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 23 37:12 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by Oryx's @Rebel44CZ (26:0 net change after cleanup) VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.12x losses to date ⬆ 2.71x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ⬆ 3.31x 30-day average ⬇ 📈 https://t.co/Y0azl2tAvK pic.twitter.com/vI5D4ot3P1 — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) February 23, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1- Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Stelmakhivka (15km west of Svatove).[27] Geolocated footage published on February 23 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions north of Novovodiane (15km south of Svatove), indicating a limited Russian advance along the Svatove-Kreminna line.[28] Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations near Kreminna itself, Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and in the Serebrianske forest area (10km south of Kreminna).[29] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are prioritizing the Kreminna direction and that fighting along the frontline has largely died down due to Russian forces sustaining heavy losses.[30] A Russian milblogger posted footage on February 23 purportedly showing BARS-13 (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) commander “Artist” in Bilohorivka claiming that Russian forces continue to attempt to seize the settlement.[31] The milblogger also claimed that Russian forces made unsuccessful efforts to attack Bilohorivka and advance on Zarichne (17km west of Kreminna) from Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).[32] Geolocated footage published on February 23 reportedly shows a remote-controlled vehicle-borne IED reportedly constructed by the 35th Separate Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) driving toward Ukrainian positions and failing to detonate near Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna).[33] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and made tactical gains in the area on February 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops continue to assault Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut itself, northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (8km northwest), Dubovo-Vasylivka (5km northwest), Berkhivka (2km northwest), Maloiliinivka (on the northern tip of Bakhmut), and Yahidne (directly on the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut); southwest of Bakhmut near Dylivka (16km southwest); and west of Bakhmut near Ivanviske (5km west).[34] Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have made incremental advances in the eastern, southern, and southwestern sectors of Bakhmut.[35] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) noted that ”volunteers of assault detachments” (the wording the Russian MoD uses to describe the Wagner Group without naming them explicitly) and elements of the 76th Guards Airborne Division are operating on this sector of the front.[36] ISW has observed reports that elements of the 106th Airborne Division are operating in the Bakhmut area and that elements of both the 106th and the 76th Airborne Divisions are operating near Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast.[37] These reports together indicate that neither division is deployed as an entire formation in either area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner troops are succeeding in pushing Ukrainian forces out of Berkhivka and now control the majority of the settlement, from which they are fighting towards Yahidne and the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops have also made advances within Bakhmut itself and in the Soledar area northeast of Bakhmut.[39] Milbloggers also remarked that Wagner has partially regained control over lost positions along the T0504 Kostyatynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway, thereby blocking the route and approaching the southeastern outskirts of Ivanivske.[40] Footage posted by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on February 23 and later geolocated shows him visiting Wagner troops in eastern Bakhmut within 500m of the current frontline, although Prigozhin claimed he was within 400m of the frontline.[41] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack near Novodanylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast on February 23.[52] Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[53] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue to reinforce their positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that Russian forces are deploying new equipment near Kakhovka and Nova Kakhovka.[54] Russian authorities announced that they completed the repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge road spans ahead of schedule on February 23.[55] Russian authorities previously announced that restoration work on the road spans should finish by March 2023.[56] Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced on November 15, 2022, that Russian authorities will restore the damaged section of the Kerch Strait rail tracks by December 1, 2023.[57] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x “I grieve for the end of a world I knew for most of my adult life,” @RadioFreeTom writes one year into the war in Ukraine. https://t.co/QTTNxAk2ai — Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 23, 2023 x Answering The Call: Heavy Weaponry Supplied To #Ukraine 🇸🇪🇺🇦 Updated with: - 3 Leopard 2 MBTs [Sweden 🇸🇪] (TBD) Full list: https://t.co/Dpk5TDYDs2 — Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) February 23, 2023 x Poland said on Thursday that it is close to finalizing a deal to buy additional American-made HIMARS rocket launchers and related equipment worth up to $10 billion. https://t.co/e3sZiEaCrh — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) February 23, 2023 1938 1919 1897 The Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of preparing an "invasion" in Transnistria. The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian Northern Operational Command reported on February 23 that Russian forces are preparing possible false flag operations in the international border areas of Chernihiv Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian intelligence has already observed Russian convoys with unmarked military equipment and personnel dressed in uniforms resembling those worn by the Ukrainian military move to areas near the Chernihiv Oblast border. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command stated that the purpose of these false flag operations would be to accuse Ukrainian forces of violating the territorial integrity of an unspecified country, very likely referring to Belarus. The Kremlin may be preparing false flag attacks to coerce Belarus into the war following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's February 16 statement that Belarus would only enter the war if attacked by Ukraine.[2] The Belarusian Ministry of Defense also notably claimed on February 21 that Belarusian forces observed a buildup of Ukrainian forces at its borders.[3] ISW continues to assess that Belarusian or Russian attack on northern Ukrainian regions is highly unlikely, but Russia seeks to force Lukashenko’s hand or blame Ukraine for expanding the war to undermine support for Kyiv. Such a false flag operation could also aim to fix Ukrainian forces at the northern border in an effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine and preparations for counter-offensive operations. The Kremlin also appears to be setting information conditions to stage a false flag operation in occupied Transnistria, Moldova. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on February 23 that Ukrainian forces are planning to conduct an armed provocation against Transnistria in the near future.[4] The MoD claimed that Ukrainian forces would dress as Russian military personnel and stage an alleged Russian offensive from positions in Transnistria.[5] The Moldovan government denied the Russian MoD’s allegations.[6] The MoD likely sought to foster this false narrative to twist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s warning to Moldovan President Maia Sandu that the Kremlin was preparing provocations in Moldova and his offer to help Moldova if Russian forces in Transnistria threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine.[7] The MoD’s dissemination of this false narrative does not indicate that Putin intends to attack Moldova—an undertaking for which he lacks military capability—although it points toward an escalation in his ongoing efforts to undermine the Moldovan state. www.understandingwar.org/... x 1/ #Ukraine #Russia #Moldova Russian MoD Propaganda According to the information available, the Kiev regime is plotting an armed provocation against the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic in the near future, — David Kime (@CyberRealms1) February 23, 2023 2/ which will be carried out by units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including those involving the Azov nationalist formation. A staged attack by allegedly Russian forces from Transnistrian territory will be used as the pretext for the invasion. 3/ For this purpose, the Ukrainian saboteurs involved in the staged invasion will be disguised as military personnel of the Russian Federation. 4/ The Russian Defence Ministry is closely monitoring the situation on Ukraine's border with the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and is ready to respond to any changes in the situation. • • • Moldova’s government has dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defence ministry that Ukraine is planning to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria after staging a false-flag operation. “We call for calm and for information to be received [by the public] from official and credible sources of the Republic of Moldova,” the government said in a statement. “Our institutions cooperate with foreign partners and in the case of threats to the country, the public will be promptly informed,” adding that the government “do not confirm” the Russian defence ministry’s allegations. On Thursday, Russia’s defence ministry claimed Ukraine – which borders Moldova – posed “a direct threat” to Russian troops in the Russian-speaking region. “The armed forces of the Russian Federation will adequately respond to the impending provocation of the Ukrainian side,” it said in a statement. Separately, Tass news agency quoted Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Galuzin as saying the west had instructed Moldova’s government in Chisinau to stop all interaction with Transnistria’s Moscow-backed authorities. Ukraine’s government has yet to respond to the accusations from the Russian defence ministry. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the tiny republic, which is one of Europe’s poorest countries, has had to contend with large numbers of refugees, soaring inflation and power cuts. Moldova’s foreign minister told Reuters on Wednesday that the tiny former Soviet republic, which also borders NATO member Romania, was prepared for a “full spectrum of threats” from Russia. President Maia Sandu, who wants her country to join the European Union, accused Moscow this month of planning a coup to topple Moldova’s leadership. Moscow denied the allegation. www.theguardian.com/... x Mines Advisory Group awarded £6.6m to clear landmines in Ukraine https://t.co/sMN4U1ZWDU — BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) February 24, 2023 x As we look at the anniversary of Putin's murderous invasion of Ukraine, we have to remember this is about a growing authoritarian movement and ideology. It's here in the United States. And we have to talk about the fact that democracy is at stake 1/https://t.co/biwP4LsnS4 — Jared Yates Sexton (@JYSexton) February 22, 2023 x Odd Lots speaks with a former CIA official and Russia-watcher on the one year since Putin's invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/IeicPInlVM — Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) February 24, 2023 “The idea was never for hundreds of thousands of people to die. It’s all gone horribly wrong,” a former senior Russian official says. With the initial plan in tatters, Putin is searching for new rationales to justify the war effort, insisting he had no choice but to pursue the invasion by any means necessary, current and former officials say. “He tells people close to him, ‘It turns out we were completely unprepared. The army is a mess. Our industry is a mess. But it’s good that we found out about it this way, rather than when NATO invades us,’” the former official adds. The Financial Times spoke to six longtime Putin confidants as well as people involved in Russia’s war effort, and current and former senior officials in the west and Ukraine for this account of how Putin blundered his way into the invasion — then doubled down rather than admit his mistake. All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. The people who know Putin describe a leader who has become even more isolated since the start of the war. “Stalin was a villain, but a good manager, because he couldn’t be lied to. But nobody can tell Putin the truth,” says one. “People who don’t trust anyone start trusting a very small number of people who lie to them.” www.ft.com/... Laurence Tribe @tribelaw February 24 is the first anniversary of the beginning of the end of a world [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/23/2154624/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-366-first-day-of-the-rest-of-the-war Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/