(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine: Europe has no choice. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-26 Our European adventure begins in 1861, when a certain Confederacy vowed to protect and expand slavery. To the UK (and France but France doesn’t matter here), supporting the Confederacy meant cotton for its industry and weakening a nation with 1812 still in mind, among other things. Take slavery away, it looked fairly beneficial, pick an excuse and reverse 1776, more or less. Yet the UK stayed out of it, if not backed the Union. What was latent (think shipbuilding shenanigans) became overwhelming the moment the Union called for the emancipation and we can put that under “popular pressure”, with bleeding hearts telling their government to please think of the children! Why not. But more likely, the Uk had spent decades (or more, I don’t really know) banning slavery, out of ideals or pragmatism, and what interests/incentives pushed it to do so came back knocking loudly in 1863. But that’s an old anecdote, so let’s jump closer. Our European adventure continues in 2011, with an Arab Spring in full swing, including in Libya where the crowd was being killed. Where did France stand? In the middle of a popular uprising, François Fillon [French prime minister] had to admit the delivery of crowd control equipment to the Ben Ali regime [in Tunisia]. (L’Express, 25 Feb. 2011, in French, my translation) Editorialists are worried on Tuesday about the bloody repression in Libya and denounce the little deals made by France and Europe with Mouammar Gaddafi, especially on weapon sales used today against a population fighting for its freedom.(LePoint, 22 Feb. 2011, in French, my translation) Libya (like Tunisia) was a partner and a good customer. The dictatorship offered a buffer against, mainly, immigration and it was in France’s (and Europe’s) interest to maintain the stability in the region. Also, oil. In other words during the first weeks of those protests, and mostly out of an expectation that they would die out, France maintained exports towards Libya (and Tunisia, etc.) and, all else equal, would have been glad to sell Gaddafi tanks to kill its people. Yet within weeks France did a 180° and was the one to call for a no-fly zone. What was latent (as the press made clear) became overwhelming once it was clear that repression had failed and things were turning violent. We can put that under “popular pressure” and electoral concerns but, more likely, and possibly due to its colonial past (a struggle of many decades), there were overwhelming interests/incentives for the nation to turn around. Which brings us to February 24, 2022. Ukraine. And I’ll mostly talk about France again but I think it can be extended to Western Europe in general, however far that stretches. Because prior to the invasion France had two opinions to give: (1) that Russia was an economic partner with its own sphere of influence and (2) that the EU was already over-stretched, think Turkey or Bulgaria as examples. Basically whatever was happening in Ukraine was basically like Yemen, a foreign humanitarian crisis far, far away. So when the invasion started, I can tell you what people were half-hoping at the time: for Russia to annex Ukraine as quickly as possible (3 days to 3 weeks). Partly to minimize suffering (sic) and partly to restore stability, and business as usual, as fast as can be. The population was shocked, and definitely sided with Ukraine, of that there is no question: but that same population had had strong feelings about Chechnya and Georgia as well. Again, a foreign humanitarian crisis far, far away. There was, of course, latent support from European countries for Ukraine, but as far as the continent was concerned the status quo could last for the rest of the century. Then Russia invaded. And then Ukraine held. And this created a situation (Western) Europe never saw coming. Because if it never saw Ukraine as part of Europe, Eastern Ukraine projected on it like mad. What was happening there could happen to them. It was as real as it could get. Finland and Sweden applied to NATO. No amount of “but Russia would never X” would fly anymore, not after the unthinkable had happened. And in turn, Ukraine was showing those countries what support they could actually expect from the EU, from NATO, if that was to happen to them. Ask Armenia (article 4), trust is crucial to maintain unity. Those tens of thousands of troops NATO sent to those Russian neighbors was as much a natural response as a perceived need to show that the commitment was real, to defend them. That article 5 had weight. But it’s easy to make a show, it’s harder when it’s real. And so support to Ukraine became a necessity, if not for NATO, at least for the EU; to not see it break in half or more, and collapse. The EU has factions, disputes and a lot of grievances within itself, so imagine Poland being told by Germany that Ukraine can eat it. You are begging for the continent to implode. And that may be a perspective that would make the far-right drool, but for saner people it brings back knowledge (more than memory, at this point) of how Europe fared before the EU was a thing; let alone in today’s world, where the UK has only begun to experience the lessons of Brexit. Now, the reason I offered above, as to why (Western) Europe had no choice but to back Ukraine, is my own speculation. But the turnaround was observable, swift and overwhelming. You don’t go from strongly-worded letters to sending howitzers over some popular outcry or fuzzy feelings. (Western) Europe, if it had a choice, would let Ukraine die the first chance it got. France has a far-right problem. Germany likes cheap gas. I don’t know about Italy but they got a thousand problems already. None of those countries want a Ukrainian adventure. (And that goes double for the US after two decades of endless wars.) Europe has no choice. That’s not rhetoric, that’s not fearmongering, it’s just basic observation. If Europe had a say it would have pulled out long ago. Instead, it is dragged wherever Russia is forcing the world to go in what has become a do-or-die moment for the old continent. “We’re next” might be rhetoric, though the feeling is real it is just a feeling. But those national incentives, that “security crisis” as some put it, is as real as it gets. So whenever there are talks about European support for Ukraine, remember you are talking about a continent backed in a corner, with no way out, no alternative, forced to escalate however far Russia will take it no matter how hard we try not to. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/26/2155032/-Ukraine-Europe-has-no-choice Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/