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Virginia House of Delegates Districts (2023): HD 21, HD 22, HD 30, HD 31 [1]

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Date: 2023-02-27  

Today, I am looking at four more districts in the Virginia House of Delegates (HoD): HD 21, HD 22, HD 30, and HD 31, all of which are based in the Northern Virginia area (more or less DC suburbs and exurbs), with HDs 21 and 22 being entirely contained in Prince William County. HD 21 and HD 31 are Democratic held, while HD 22 and HD 30 are Republican held.

Virginia House District 21

VA HD 21 encompasses communities such as Haymarket and Bull Run. HD 21 swung very heavily to the left at the presidential level in 2020, with Joe Biden easily carrying the district by nearly 27 points after Hillary Clinton carried it by a fairly close margin of between 6 and 7 points four years earlier. Biden’s performance seems to be unusually strong here, given that in the 2017 Governor’s race, Democrat Ralph Northam carried it by a somewhat competitive margin of just over 7 points (barely outperforming Clinton) and in the 2021 Governor’s race, Dem Terry McAuliffe narrowly lost the district by a little more than 3 points, a huge swing back to the right from Biden’s performance. HD 21 is also open this cycle as no incumbents have been drawn into the district. One Democrat is currently running for the seat, Marine Corps veteran and attorney, Joshua Thomas, while two Republicans are currently running, Joshua Quill, who is also a Marine Corps veteran, and John Stirrup, who has previously served as Prince Williams County supervisor. Given the district’s high Biden margin and the overall increase in polarization, the Democrats should have an edge here this cycle, but the seat should be competitive, as Republicans have been considerably more successful here down-ballot. I’m classifying HD 21 as Lean Democrat.

Virginia House District 22

VA HD 22 is home to communities such as Linton Hall and Nokesville. HD 22 has been a fairly competitive district that has trended heavily towards the Dems, having gone from supporting Donald Trump by about 5 points in 2016 to supporting Biden by about 5.5 points. In 2017, Northam very narrowly lost the district by less than a percentage point (performing in-between Clinton and Biden), while in 2021, McAuliffe unsurprisingly lost the seat by a greater 7-point margin. As with HD 21, no incumbents have been drawn into HD 22, making it open this cycle. Currently, one Republican is running for the seat, Ian Lovejoy, who has served on the Manassas City Council and ran for the HoD in 2019 (but lost the General Election). Currently, no Democrats have filed to run in HD 22. HD 22 should be competitive this cycle and a reasonably decent pick-up opportunity for Dems. I’m classifying the seat as a Toss Up.

Virginia House District 30

VA HD 30 is located on the northwestern edge of the Northern VA area, bordering both Maryland and West Virginia, and includes communities such as Purcellville and Middleburg. HD 30 has traditionally leaned Republican but has moved a good deal to the left in recent years, with Trump carrying the district by 7 points in 2016, but Biden carrying it by a razor-thin margin four years later. In 2017, Northam lost the district by 4 points and McAuliffe lost it in 2021 by a fairly uncompetitive 12-point margin. While HoD incumbent Republican Dave LaRock has been drawn into HD 30, he is opting to run for the State Senate this cycle, making this seat open. Two Republicans are currently running in HD 30: former Loudon County supervisor and School Board member Geary Higgins, who also ran for the more Dem-leaning Senate District 13 in 2019 but lost, and Loudon County businessman Calex Max, who lost the 2022 GOP primary for VA Congressional District 10. Economist Max Sawicky and Robert Banse are running on the Dem side. The district should be competitive this cycle, given the lack of an incumbent and the progress Dems have made here (such as Biden’s narrow victory), but the Republicans should still be favored somewhat. I’m classifying HD 30 as Lean Republican.

Virginia House District 31

VA HD 31 is directly west of the previously covered HD 30 and also shares a border with WV. HD 31 is a reliably Republican district, having gone for Trump by about 24 points in 2020. The reason I am looking at this seat is that it is a projected flip, as incumbent Democrat Wendy Gooditis has been drawn into the new district. Gooditis has been representing HD 10, which is a considerably bluer district that went for Biden by about 16 points in 2020. Given how red HD 31 is, it’s quite possible that Gooditis won’t run for reelection, and regardless, the seat should be a guaranteed pick-up opportunity for the GOP, so I’m classifying it as Safe Republican. So far one Republican is running in HD 31, Delores Riley Oates, who has served on the Warren County Board of Supervisors.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/27/2155200/-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Districts-2023-HD-21-HD-22-HD-30-HD-31

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