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Virginia House of Delegates Districts (2023): HD 83, HD 84, HD 89, HD 73 [1]

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Date: 2023-02-27  

Today, I am looking at the last four competitive districts in the VA House of Delegates (HoD): HD 83, HD 84, HD 89, and HD 73. The former three districts are located in the southeastern part of the state, largely based in the Hampton Roads area, while HD 73 is based in the Greater Richmond area. These districts are all Republican held, except for HD 84, which is Dem held.

Virginia House District 83

VA HD 83 is based in the Southside region of VA (bordering North Carolina) and encompasses a large swarth of area, stretching all the way to the James River on the district’s eastern end. HD 83 seems to have trended away from the Democrats in recent years, with Donald Trump barely carrying the district by less than a percentage point in 2016 and by a slightly larger margin of about 2 points in 2020, despite the state’s overall leftward shift. In the 2017 Governor’s race, Dem Ralph Northam narrowly lost the district by between 1 and 2 points (on par with the recent presidential results), while unsurprisingly Dem Terry McAuliffe lost the district in the 2021 Governor’s race by a considerably larger margin of almost 14 points. Republican incumbent Otto Wachsmann, who has been representing HD 75, has been drawn into the new district, giving the GOP the advantage of incumbency (assuming he runs again). HD 75 is quite a bit more Dem leaning than HD 83, with Biden having carried the former district by about 7 points. Wachsmann flipped HD 75 in 2021, when he defeated incumbent Democrat Roz Tyler by a little more than 5 points. Currently, one Democrat is running in HD 75: Mary Person, who may not be a serious candidate, given that she doesn’t have a campaign website or any candidate related social media. Wachsmann should be well positioned to win in HD 83, given the overall trends of the district and that he has already won in a bluer seat. Still, the district warrants notice given the close presidential results, so I’m classifying it as Likely Republican.

Virginia House District 84

VA HD 84 is largely based around the city of Suffolk and areas to the north, such as Windsor. HD 84 has been a fairly Democratic district, having supported Hillary Clinton by about 10 points and Joe Biden by a larger 16-point margin. In 2017, Northam carried the district by just under 14 points, while the district was close in 2021, with McAuliffe narrowly carrying it by a little more than 2 points. HoD incumbent Democrat Nadarius Clark, who has been representing HD 79, has been drawn into HD 84 and is running for reelection, though he also has a primary challenger, computer scientist Michelle Joyce. HD 79 is quite a bit bluer than HD 84, as Biden carried the former district by about 28 points, though it should be noted that the 2021 house race for HD 79 was a lot closer, with Clark winning the open seat by about 12.5 points (note that he defeated then incumbent Democrat Steve Heretick in the primary). In addition to Clark and Joyce, two Republicans are currently running for HD 84: Mike Dillender and Rod Thompson, both of whom are Navy veterans. The Dems should be favored in HD 84, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, especially in an off-year election, considering that the district needs strong turnout among African Americans, who make up a sizeable 42% of the district’s population. I’m classifying HD 84 as Lean Democrat.

Virginia House District 89

VA HD 89 is located on the state’s southern border, directly south of the previous covered HD 84, and encompasses parts of Chesapeake and the remainder of Suffolk (not contained in HD 84). HD 89 is a competitive district that has been trending a fair amount to the left, having gone from supporting Trump in 2016 by between 3 and 4 points to supporting Biden in 2020 by a little more than 2 points. Northam carried the district in 2017 by about 5.5 points (outperforming Biden), while in 2021, McAuliffe lost the seat by about 7.5 points. HD 89 is open this cycle, as no incumbents have been drawn into the district. Currently, one Democrat is running for the seat, Suffolk City School Board member Karen Jenkins, while three Republicans are running: Chesapeake City Council member Don Carey, Army veteran Baxter Ennis, and Navy veteran Jason Wooldridge. With no incumbent, the seat should by highly competitive this cycle, but I’m giving the GOP a slight edge, given that Biden only narrowly carried it. I’m classifying HD 89 as Lean Republican.

Virginia House District 73

VA HD 73 is based in the southwestern Richmond exurbs, such as Hampton Park and Winterpock. HD 73 leans fairly heavily Republican but has swung a good deal towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Trump by about by about 15.5 points in 2016 to supporting him in by a considerably narrower margin of about 7 points in 2020. The district wasn’t especially close in 2021, with McAuliffe losing it by just under 15 points. (Although the fact that McAuliffe managed to outperform Clinton by almost a point is a positive sign for Dems, given that he did several points worse than her statewide.) While HoD incumbent Republican Roxann Robinson has been drawn into HD 73, she his opting not to run for reelection this cycle, making HD 73 open. Two Republicans are running for the seat: attorney Mark Earley, who previously ran for HD 68 in 2021 and lost, and Chesterfield County School Board member Ryan Harter. HD 73 should be fairly safe for the GOP this cycle, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given how favorable the trends have been for Dems overall. I’m classifying HD 73 as Likely Republican. Note that there currently aren’t any Democratic challengers for the seat.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/27/2155203/-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Districts-2023-HD-83-HD-84-HD-89-HD-73

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