(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . With or without Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland was never as close to independence as it seemed. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-02-27 What if I told you that the English have the final say? Note: An at least vague sense of British politics may be necessary to understand this story. One of the more interesting developments in world politics in recent years has been the resurgence of the Scottish independence movement. It first created political pressure that got devolution and the Scottish Parliament established. Then it managed to put a referendum on independence on the ballot. Although the SNP lost the referendum, it would benefit from this giving centrist and conservative separatists' reason to put aside their misgivings with the left-leaning SNP. Meanwhile, Scottish supporters of the Unionist parties remained as divided as ever. Labour, the Conservatives (or Tories) and Liberal Democrats hate each other more than they like the UK. The stage was set for the great SNP triumph of 2015. Although it was kind of a poisoned chalice. David Cameron, whose austerity program was likely a key reason for the surge in the popularity of independence in Scotland, also prevailed that year. So, the SNP’s greatest era in party history is one of electoral success without too much progress on its signature issue. I won’t say that this means that it’s pointless. Nicola Sturgeon’s run as First Minister of Scotland did produce a successful infrastructure program that it is likely to have at least some influence on whatever UK-wide version is built should Keir Starmer form a majority government in a couple years. But on Scottish independence, the SNP is essentially still where it was in 2015. And maybe worse. Some speculate that it could take beatings next general and Scottish elections (though I’ll believe it when Labour is officially the strongest party in Scotland). Some will say otherwise because they predicted that the British Union was over when SNP first triumphed, when the Brexit referendum passed, when the Conservatives elected borderline English nationalist Prime Minister Boris Johnson, when Brexit was finally enacted, when Johnson bungled his response to COVID-19 and when he adopted Trump-like contempt for democratic norms (see his attempts to nudge the BBC to a Daily Mail-like direction with government power). Some people really need to stop getting excited about every little thing. The issue with independence is the one it’s always had: that the power to make it happen is in England, not Scotland. This was made all too clear when the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom unanimously ruled months ago that Scotland hasn’t the authority to hold a second independence referendum without the approval of the Union-wide government. The situation is not improved by Sturgeon being apparently too pro-trans rights to remain First Minister. But I don’t want to be too harsh too the SNP or its supporters here at Daily Kos. So instead of leaving it at that, I’ll address the possibility that this party could conceivably get a referendum granted by England. There’s actually a snowball’s chance in Hell that the current PM, Rishi Sunak, can be made to authorize a referendum. Only a snowball’s chance in Hell. As the Tory base has grown more English nationalistic, polls have shown that a good chunk of it doesn’t care whether the Scots leave or not. Maybe they could be convinced that they’re better off without the Scots, however hateful the subtext would be in their case. Except that contrary to the claims of their political opponents, the Tories are not the American Republicans. They’re not at the mercy of their base. In their long era, they have had either social moderation under David Cameron (he [and the Liberal Democrats] forced gay marriage onto unwilling Tory MPs) or economic moderation (see Johnson’s infrastructure plan, Sunak’s tax increase). This is not a political party that will break up the Union at the command of its supporters. Someday soon, of course, there will be another general election in the UK. As of now, Labour is polling over 20 points ahead of the Tories on average. Turns out it can win England after all. Maybe its past problem really was Jeremy Corbyn. But how would this affect the quest for independence? A Labour government would actually be less likely to allow a referendum on Scotland’s future than the Tories. The reason is that Labour’s loss of Scotland has left it more dependent on English votes than ever before. That rules out even paying much attention to the SNP if it doesn’t have to. The one exception is if Labour takes out dozens of SNPers in the next general election. Not exactly a good scenario for the SNP or independence. Fortunately for the SNP, governments tend to bottom out halfway through their terms. Or the Tories would fall under a hundred seats. Still, I think only John Major’s 1990-1992 comeback provides a model for the Conservatives to survive the next election. And because Scotland obviously won’t vote Conservative, and the Liberal Democrats appear likely to gain 8-25 seats by breaking the “Blue Wall” of socially progressive ex-Tories, Labour can actually lose the popular vote by two or three percentage points and still form a coalition government. Of course, since a lot of people will see it as “A coalition of losers,” and it will have a small majority, it will likely collapse in dysfunction, forcing its own annihilation in another election a year later. As happened to Ramsey MacDonald’s brief 1923-1924 government of second place finishers with an assist from the now-defunct Liberals. Because of Labour’s severe geographical disadvantage due to being so concentrated in Wales and urban England, the most likely outcome is probably a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. That could also be the SNP’s worst-case scenario because the Lib Dems will likely demand proportional representation. That would reduce the SNP’s number of MPs and thus influence. The final scenario I’ll cover is Labour winning by a modest margin. This leaves it well short of 300 MPs, forcing an alliance with the SNP. In theory the SNP would be able to demand a referendum. But when this kind of government was considered possible right before the 2015 election, some analysts suggested that Labour could call the SNP’s bluff because it has consistently promised not to prop up the Conservatives. That probably will hurt the SNP’s leverage, though with how anti-Tory Scotland is, maybe it had no choice. I’m actually not sure how much this would weaken its hand in coalition talks. I give Labour a fifty-fifty chance of being forced into a referendum in this scenario. And that’s the best-case scenario for the SNP. Which makes the chances that Scotland leaves less than strong. Some of you may be thinking of the divisions that the English vs. Scots factor has created in the UK and concluding that it can’t go on like this. But there’s a similar factor with the French-Canadiens and American South. Both Canada and the U.S. went on like that. Why can’t the UK? This may not be a good thing, but it is entirely sustainable. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/27/2155291/-With-or-without-Nicola-Sturgeon-Scotland-was-never-as-close-to-independence-as-it-seemed Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/