(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Is Trump inevitable? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-03-01 Will Trump return to the presidency? Or will he even make it to the primaries? Everyone has an opinion. Is anybody right? Last December I wrote a piece asking, “ Is Trump Done? ” It concluded, “Who the hell knows?” I suspect this essay will end the same way. The best brains may think Trump is toast. However, he has proved that the political intelligentsia has as much idea of the future as religious prophets and economists. After the 2022 midterms, the tide of pundit opinion shifted against Trump. His demise seemed more likely. His picks failed, after shutting out better candidates. And a younger, fitter sociopath, Ron DeSantis — coming off a landslide win in the Florida Governor’s race — provided a viable alternative. This apple pie, picket fence father of three was ticking all the right boxes in the culture wars. Supported by his ever-present and telegenic wife, Casey, the Republican establishment hoped they had found in DeSantis a candidate who had all the fascist excess of Trump without the bug-eyed, jut-jawed insanity. It looked good. But then people realized that Ron makes store-brand mayonnaise look charismatic. It is de rigueur for a politician aspiring to higher office to pump out a book or two. DeSantis obliged with “The Courage to Be Free.” It has landed with a thud. Jennifer Szalai offered a typical review in the New York Times, writing: “His new book will leave some supporters, who have encouraged DeSantis to “humanize himself” for a national audience, sorely disappointed. For the most part, “The Courage to Be Free” is courageously free of anything that resembles charisma, or a discernible sense of humor. “ ... reads like a politician’s memoir churned out by ChatGPT.” I doubt many DeSantis fans will put much stock in his book’s reception. They will, however, watch this Florida man attempt to nationalize his appeal. It will prove a slog — as Ron has neither the pussy-grabber’s personality nor his ability to engender cultish devotion. DeSantis has also yet to face a full-on onslaught from Trump. Although the insult machine has warmed up with “DeSanctimonious," “Shutdown Ron," and “Meatball Ron.” None of which are well-regarded — but it is still early. The white-bread Ron will have his work cut out for him. Trump had the mojo to stifle reason and seduce the base into blind allegiance to his stream-of-grievance style of perpetual campaign. He did not do dog whistles — he spelled his intolerance out. Trump freed the MAGA base to sport their bigotry proudly under the battle standards of patriotism, liberty, and morality. If he can still do it, DeSantis will be in trouble. Some critics say Trump has lost a step. They claim his fastball has shed velocity, his crowds are small, and his rhetoric is dull. Maybe. However, I doubt the MAGA base will care about those stats in the voting booth. For a while, pollsters discerned an erosion of support for the naked Emperor. Then they saw the “not Trump” vote stagnate and recede. While his net unfavorability among all voters has inched-up 2.6 points to -13.6%, the measure Trump and the GOP care about — at least until the end of the primary season — is his standing against DeSantis among Republican voters. One recent Emerson College poll shows Trump almost doubling DeSantis with support from 55% of Republicans to 25% for his main rival. On the other hand, a Quinnipiac poll shows Trump with a much narrower lead, 42% to 36% — proving that polls are poor guides. However, taken in toto, they are not bad news for the 2020 loser. They show that Trump’s sea of legal troubles has not much dented his standing among the GOP primary voters. In fact, I suspect the drumbeat of negative news has solidified his support among people worried he was fading. Trump’s fans adore him when he embraces his David vs Goliath underdog role. Trump has also proved that what would kill any other political career lifts his balloon. Who else could turn serial bankruptcies into proof of their fiscal genius? Survive a confession of multiple sexual assaults? Or make kowtowing to enemy dictators a sign of virility? I will not be surprised if even multiple indictments do not slow his role. I once doubted Trump would make it to the primaries, let alone win the GOP nomination. Yet here he is, in the lead , as the first few hesitant hats are thrown into the ring by such as Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. (I do not know who Ramaswamy is either) Who else will join the field? Tim Scott, maybe. The rest of the Senators are showing no signs. The GOP House has no one of stature. Governors Chris Sununu and Larry Hogan have had their names thrown around. And Asa Hutchinson has made noise. However, even if they pull the trigger, the base is not going for a Rockefeller Republican or another Arkansas Governor. No one knows if DeSantis is going to declare. He is impatient and wants the job. Yet he is a realist with time on his side. In 2028, he will still be only 48. By then, he would have had another term with a compliant State legislature, and the support of a clear majority of Floridians, to burnish his cred. He also risks little. If Florida suffered an economic setback, it would only be part of a national recession. He would blame the federal government — regardless of who is President. His biggest fear is probably screwing up the recovery from a cataclysmic hurricane or a spate of school shootings. If DeSantis does sit 2024 out, Trump is the odds-on favorite to be the nominee. If Ron enters the contest, Trump probably remains the favorite, but with shorter odds. The British bookies have posted their line . Without knowing DeSantis's plans, they have installed Don as the narrow favorite over Ron — and have rated the rest of the candidates as also-rans. Note: in a statistical oddity, while the bookies’ odds favor Trump beating DeSantis in the primaries, they have DeSantis leading Trump in the general. The good news for Democrats is that both men trail Joe Biden. All of this brings us to the big Republican question, will Trump be the 2024 GOP nominee? My answer remains, who the hell knows? 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