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Arizona State Senate Districts (2024): SD 2, SD 4, SD 9, SD 13 [1]

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Date: 2023-03-16  

Next in my state legislative series, I am going to look at the Arizona State Senate. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 31R – 29D, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of least two seats for control of the chamber, with a net gain of exactly one seat producing a tied chamber, which would presumably result in a power sharing agreement (as AZ does not have a Lieutenant Governor to break ties). The entire chamber is on the ballot every two years, so 2024 will be the second time that the post-redistricting boundaries will be used for these seats. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.

Today, I am going to be looking at four senate districts: SD 2, SD 4, SD 9, and SD 13, all of which are based in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix.

Arizona Senate District 2

AZ SD 2 encompasses northern Phoenix suburbs, such as Turtle Ridge. SD 2 overlaps with the pre-2022 iterations of SD 15, SD 20, SD 28, all of which swung about 5 to 8 points to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020, indicating favorable trends for Dems in the region. SD 2 has been highly competitive, having gone for Donald Trump by only 2 points in 2020. In 2022, Dem Katie Hobbs was able to narrowly carry the seat by just under 2 points in the Governor’s race, improving on Joe Biden’s margin by a few points, while performing comparably to him statewide. Dem Mark Kelly carried the seat by a larger margin of nearly 6 points in the 2022 U.S. Senate race, which isn’t too surprising given that he outperformed Hobbs by a few points statewide. In addition, most of the other 2022 statewide Democrats also carried the district, including Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman, who narrowly lost reelection. However, at the State Senate level, the Democrats were a bit less successful here, as Republican Steve Kaiser managed to win the open seat by a little less than 4 points. The district should be a decent pick-up opportunity for Dems this cycle, given the promising trends and the strong statewide performances from Dems. I’m classifying SD 2 as a Toss Up.

Arizona Senate District 4

AZ SD 4 is located directly east of SD 2 and is home to Phoenix suburbs, such as Paradise Valley. Like SD 2, SD 4 also overlaps with the pre-2022 iterations of both SD 15 (which supported Trump by between 10 and 11 points) and SD 28 (which supported Biden by about 12 points). Not surprisingly, SD 4 is in-between these two districts politically, having narrowly supported Biden by about a percentage point. Both Republican Nancy Barto, who had been representing SD 15, and Democrat Christine Marsh, who had been representing SD 28, were drawn into SD 4, and ended up running against each other in 2022. Barto, who is an election denier and a strong anti-abortion advocate, was first elected to SD 15 when she defeated the more moderate incumbent Republican Heather Carter in the primary and was unopposed in the general, while Marsh flipped SD 28 in 2020 when she very narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Kate Brophy McGee, who had a somewhat moderate reputation, by a razor thin margin of less than 500 votes. Most of the statewide Dems in 2022 performed better here, with Hobbs carrying the district by nearly 4 points and Kelly carrying it by 7 points. SD 4 seems to be the most vulnerable Dem-held seat, and the GOP does have a decent shot of flipping it if they nominate a more moderate candidate. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.

Arizona Senate District 9

AZ SD 9 contains some of Phoenix’s eastern suburbs, such as Mesa. SD 9 seems to be trending heavily towards the Dems, with many of the precincts experiencing double digit swings to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020. In 2020, Biden carried the seat by a relatively competitive margin of just under 6 points, while in 2022, the district supported Hobbs by a slightly larger 8-point margin and easily supported Kelly by a little more than 12 points. The State Senate race was a bit closer in 2022, with Democrat Eva Burch defeating Republican Robert Scantlebury by a 5-point margin. (Note that Scantlebury had defeated incumbent Republican Tyler Pace in the primary.) Burch should be favored somewhat this cycle, given the favorable trends and the advantage of incumbency, but it still seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying SD 9 as Lean Democrat.

Arizona Senate District 13

AZ SD 13 is located directly south of the previously covered SD 9 and is home to Phoenix’s southeastern suburbs, such as Chandler. SD 13 largely overlaps with the pre-2022 SD 17, which swung fairly rapidly towards the Dems in recent years, as it went from supporting Mitt Romney by a decent margin of about 12 points to supporting Trump in 2016 by a narrower margin of about 4 points to supporting Biden by nearly 4 points. SD 13 is a slightly redder district than SD 17, as it went for Biden by around 3 points. Most of the 2022 statewide Democrats carried SD 13, with Hobbs winning the seat by nearly 4 points, performing about a percentage point better than Biden, and Kelly winning the seat by nearly 8 points. However, Republican incumbent J.D. Mesnard was able to hold onto the seat in 2022, narrowly winning reelection by between 3 and 4 points. It should be noted that this is closer than Mesnard’s 2020 race for SD 17, when he won by 5 points, indicating some slight down-ballot improvements for Democrats. Given much of the district’s previous competitive results, the seat should be highly contested again this cycle, especially as it is the only Biden-won GOP held district in the chamber. I’m classifying SD 17 as a Toss Up, making it another strong pick-up opportunity for Dems.

Thanks to Raghu Srinivasan (for the statewide/presidential results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/16/2158553/-Arizona-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-2-SD-4-SD-9-SD-13

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