(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Update: All along the front line, Russia's big offensive looks like a big fizzle [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-03-18 The first portion of the map to discuss is the part we’re not going to be looking at. We’re not look at the border between Ukraine and Belarus, since there continues to be no sign of anything happening there. Remember when just a few weeks ago there were all these declarations that Russia was sending troops into Belarus for another push on Kyiv? That included this fun January 19 story from Newsweek, that claimed Russia was “using railway tank cars to secretly transport troops to Belarus.” The idea was silly then, and it looks sillier two months later. Anyway, there’s still no action along the border. Ukrainian officials note that: “The Russian Federation continues to maintain a military presence on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, but without the formation of offensive groups.” They also note that Belarus is doing some “terrain altering.” That is, they’re digging trenches on their side of the border, because they’re more worried about Ukraine coming in that Russia going out. Kupyansk Area. Open image in another tab for a closer view. Even more than the area around Bakhmut, a comparison of this map to the last time we were at this end of the line gives the impression that Russia has gained a lot of ground. After all, Ukraine recently held nominal control of almost every area in the “disputed” portion of this map, as well as some villages now back in the red. But the truth is most of these towns were never garrisoned with any significant force. Ukrainian troops passed through. Medical teams checked up on residents in some areas. But most of the action in this area was focused on clearing the P07 highway to the southeast. Ukraine still seems to have control over that highway in this area. You could just about draw the lines of dispute anywhere north of that highway. With the exception of fighting close to Dvorichna, which has been tough, it doesn’t appear that Russia has devoted a lot of effort in this area. There’s been a lot of claims that it was about to retake Kupyansk, but there doesn’t seem to be any threat of that happening soon. Ukraine actually noted 13 seperate attemps Svatove Area. Open image in another tab for a larger view. This is another one that can look disappointing when compared to the last view. However, for the last two months it’s been Russia making its big winter push and Ukraine on the defensive, and … nothing much has really changed. The biggest difference in the map here is that a larger area has been put into the disputed category based on reported Russian assaults. So little has really changed in this area that Novoselivske and Kuzemivka appear to be still divided along the same rail line where forces were facing off in October. Ukraine pushed up to that intersection west of Svatove during their push in the late fall. Russia put at lot of that area along the highway back into dispute with their winter offensive. But not much really changed hands. Be prepared to see that same kind of thing when we move south. Kreminna Area. Open image in another tab for a larger view. Kreminna was supposed to be the heart of Russia’s efforts to turn things around in the north, but mostly what they’ve done is spin their tires, and treads, fighting General Mud. I’ve ceded those areas along the highway north of the city back to Russian control, mostly because they haven’t shown up in the list of recent repulsed assaults, and the area of dispute has been shifted west, but there’s not a lot of evidence of movement. On the south, Ukraine remains in the forested areas adjacent to the city, in spite of multiple aborted efforts to flush them out. I’ve put Dibrova in Ukrainian control here, but it likely should be noted as disputed as well, as it appears that Ukrainian forces are actually based just west of Dibrova proper. At the south end of the map, Russia has made almost daily runs at Bilohorivka — likely out of wanting to claim they held every major settlement in Luhansk. It hasn’t worked. Ukraine reports that Russian forces are still actively trying to break through here, and just as at Svatove it’s disappointing to see some of those small towns around Kreminna back in the yellow or red after they appeared to be stepping stones to Ukraine taking the city. But again, Ukraine has been on the defensive here. That Russia hasn’t really been able to move them away from Kreminna, even though Ukrainian forces were not in any sort of prepared defensive position, is kind of extraordinary. Bakhmut Area. Open image in another tab for a larger view. I’ve expanded the usual area around Bakhmut both to give something of a larger overview of the area and to keep the scale similar to that of the other maps. Usually, when looking at Bakhmut, the area under consideration is really quite small. In this larger view, it’s easy to see that the real Russian advance in the area is related to the occupation of Soledar and subsequent movement along the highway north of Bakhmut. That advance is powered by the same thing that brought Russian forces ot Bakhmut in the first place: logistics. So long as Russian can hold the M03, and the smaller highways that feed into it, they have their route laid out for their genuine strategic goal up the road at Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. But what’s happening at Bakhmut itself seems to be a kind of odd stability. The little explosion icons mark areas of conflict in this area over the last day. On both north and south, Ukraine seems to be holding Russian forces from gaining access to the remaining roads into the city, and even pressing Russian troops back in some areas. Wagner Group forces are reportedly still picking their way through buildings in northern Bakhmut, but that effort is moving slowly. It’s been a week since Russia moved close to cutting off Ukraine’s access, and what seemed like a deathwatch last weekend seems indefinitely delayed now. Donetsk Area. Open image in another tab for a larger view. The amazing thing about this area is that, in spite of multiple Russian assaults each and every day of the invasion, very little ever seems to change. In areas, Ukrainian troops are still sitting in the defensive works thrown up in 2014. In general, Russia is throwing a lot of shells across this line, and continuing the same kind of small, disconnected attacks that have characterized its offensive in many areas. Velyka Area. Open image in another tab for a larger view. Really, this is a “not many towns big enough to be called towns” area. I’ve added it mostly because Vuhledar is in this area, and Vuhledar is now famous. Other villages along this line are likely wishing that Russia would run a few fruitless assaults their way so that they can get in on the tourist dollars Vohledar will enjoy when this is over and everyone goes there to see the Museum of Russian Pigheadedness. In addition to running their forces up that road right through Vuhledar, Russia has tried going a little bit to the west and a little bit to the right. This week alone, they’ve tried both. Both failed. Again. If you compare this map to previous maps I made of this area, it looks as if Ukraine has made several advances. That’s not so much the case as it is that I was noting down villages that Russia claimed to have captured, and now that I’ve taken more time to look it turns out, shockingly, that Russian sources lied. Hulyiapole Area. Open image in another tab for a larger view. As with the previous map, the apparent shift of the line south when compared to previous maps is largely just a better understanding and review of recent reported assaults. There hasn’t been a lot of action on this part of the line in recent weeks, but what could be a significant event happened hear on Wednesday. That’s when a small Ukrainian armored force drove down that road toward Polohy, before being turned back by a combination of artillery and portable anti-tank weapons. Ukraine lost four M113s in the process, along with what looks to be at least a dozen troops. That event seems to mark the kind of “reconnaissance in force” that has seen both sides waste so many men in this war. However, this place and this time seem odd for Ukraine to be making such a low-key assault. The force sent wasn’t large enough to capture Polohy, though it did get almost to the town before being turned away. It ends up looking like a way to test the waters and determine how good a job Russia has done of mining their roads (spoiler alert: they haven’t). But if that was the purpose, it was an expensive test. Orikhiv Area. Open image in another tab for a large view. This area directly south of Zaporizhzhia has been exceptionally stable, with the estuary at Kamyansk pretty much marking the boundary for months now. Things haven’t been silent. There have been a lot of small scale assaults and a lot of slight drifts of that control line. Many of the small villages along that line have been absolutely pummeled by shelling. But considering the forces both sides reportedly have—at Zaporizhzhia on the Ukrainian side and down at Melitopol for the Russians—the level of activity has been remarkably low. Pretty much every analyst seems to believe that this area will be a focus for the Next Big Offensive. It would certainly be understandable for Ukraine to direct its forces this way to break through to Melitopol and Mariupol. Russia probably finds it a bit embarrassing to claim it owns Zaporizhzhia without being able to put one man in Zaporizhzhia. This area could end up being the real test of which side has spent the winter rebuilding and preparing for spring, and which has spent it exhausting all available resources. The names of towns in this area are unfamiliar at the moment. Don’t expect it to stay that way. How many of these are we going to get before Russian forces realize that complaining about their conditions is the best way to get on the next convoy to Vuhledar? These guys could save a lot of time by just calling the handy surrender line. No more shooting. Decent food. And they might not even send you back to Russia if you beg hard enough. But hey, give it a shot. What is Putin known for if not his personal warmth and empathy? x 🥹 Mimimimimi, Vladimir Vladimirovich can you please help us? We are thrown into the battle unprepared, and already have up to 70% losses in the battles for Avdiivka. Another group of Russian mobilized that whine about the meatgrinder, provided by DNR commanders 🙃 pic.twitter.com/6e5nRCFZKG — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 18, 2023 If a lot of the new blue-check accounts on Twitter are pro-Russian, it’s no surprise. Since they’re Russian. As the AP reports this morning, pro-Putin accounts have been signing up for Elon Musk’s blue check mark so they can post Russian propaganda and do what they’ve always done so well—generate schisms in the U.S. “Biden offers food, water, medicine, shelter, payouts of pension and social services to Ukraine! Ohio first! Offer and deliver to Ohio!” posted one of the pro-Moscow accounts, which boasts 25,000 followers and features an anonymous location and a profile photo of a dog. Twitter awarded the account a blue check mark in January. This is certainly good news, and not just for Ukraine. x ⚡Minister: Russian-Ukrainian grain deal extended for another 120 days. Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced on March 18 that the grain deal, which has enabled Ukraine to export millions of tonnes of agricultural products via the Black Sea, has been extended. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 18, 2023 Another reason that the second part of the drone field guide will never get done. I didn’t even have a category for a thing like this. The text indicates that this is a German-made ground-based kamikaze drone named “Goliath.” Goliath was the name for a tiny “tracked mine” that Germany built as an anti-tank weapon during World War II. American’s called it a “beetle tank.” The remote-controlled weapon could travel on a wire over 800M long, but it was difficult to steer and not really quick enough to catch vehicles in motion. Still, Germany built over 7,000 of them, making the original Goliath possibly the world’s first military ROV. This is clearly not one of those old devices, but whether it’s something that came from a defense contractor, or something cobbled together from a lawn mower, DJI controller, and a box of explosives … I really don’t know. x ЗСУ використовують наземні дрони-камікадзе: німецький "Голіаф" на нових технологіях. pic.twitter.com/y2E5A52tMZ — Генсек НАТО (@ANDRU6307) March 18, 2023 Ukrainian drone reportedly taking out 10 Russian tanks near Donetsk in a single night. Might want to park those things indoors, boys. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/18/2158915/-Ukraine-Update-All-along-the-front-line-Russia-s-big-offensive-looks-like-a-big-fizzle Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/