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Ukraine Update: Ukraine retakes some ground around Bakhmut, but end goal is unclear [1]

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Date: 2023-03-19  

After reports that Ukraine had retaken territory around the T0504 road southwest of Bakhmut, new video confirms the advances. (The video in the second tweet is explicit, exercise proper discretion.)

That confirmed counterattack is here:

The T0504 road is Ukraine’s lifeline to Bakhmut. Without it, Ukraine has no choice but to retreat. Ukraine’s Bakhmut salient remains tenuous, as Russian forces hold positions all around Bakhmut:

But as you can see in the map below, by a pro-Russian source, this latest push southwest of Ivanivske gives the T0504 some breathing room, allows Ukraine to keep funneling supplies through that route.

Blue arrows show Ukrainian advance

With reports that Russian advances north of Bakhmut have ground to a halt, it looks like Bakhmut’s defense is on steadier ground at the moment. I’m no longer predicting culmination, as many analysts suggest. I’ve made that mistake once or twice before, never again. Russia needs its victory, and this is as close to one as they’ll get. I assume they’ll keep feeding their meat into the wood chipper until they don’t, and so far they haven’t.

Here’s more video of a purported Ukrainian counterattack near the T0504:

x Ukrainian reinforcements have arrived in Bakhmut in recent days and are now counterattacking the Russians, successfully pushing them away from the crucial T0504 road leading into Bakhmut.



Heavy fighting ongoing with a lot of heavy equipment involved on both sides. pic.twitter.com/AktQmuX35C — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 19, 2023

Meanwhile, shiny new, clean equipment is reportedly headed in the Bakhmut direction. This was reportedly on the T0504 itself:

Another unconfirmed video claiming destination Bakhmut:

That’s all great news for Bakhmut’s defense, but perhaps less so for Ukraine’s future counteroffensive. If those forces are being committed to Bakhmut, where they will inevitably suffer loss and attrition, they can’t be later committed toward Svatove/Starobilsk in the north, or Melitopol in the south.

There is one last possibility—those reinforcements could be creating the conditions for a Bakhmut retreat—protecting that key road and retreating defenders as their backs are turned to the enemy. Russia did the same before their retreat from Kherson, and did so effectively.

Even if Bakhmut holds, the debate will continue to rage. There is, after all, a reason the phrase “pyrrhic victory” exists.

Putin made a midnight trip to Mariupol, where the darkness could mask the destruction around him. But even the most tightly controlled conditions weren’t enough to prevent this from happening:

x Putin and Mariupol....

This is the original video, which was deleted immediately after publication in RIA Novosti, and the cropped version was already played on TV.



At 17 seconds, a woman from the window shouts "it's all not true, it's all for show" 😔 pic.twitter.com/SRkWidkiu0 — MAKS 22🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 19, 2023

These numbers! 21 tanks and 23 APCs in a day?

Well, the Oryx crew pretty much confirmed the tanks:

You can see 10 of those tanks burn right here:

x Special forces of the SBU called "White Wolves" reportedly destroyed 10 Russian tanks in one night. Also one APC was reportedly destroyed.



This all happened during a night attack in the Donetsk region. pic.twitter.com/RscjcznMrv — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 18, 2023

This is funny:

x A Ukrainian military man, stationed near Bakhmut, was called by the Military Commissariat and asked why he 'hide from mobilisation' 🤭🙃 pic.twitter.com/aqy4nnR8yD — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 19, 2023

That clip is from this much longer video of trench life around Bakhmut. It is translated, and it’s quite informative. I do wish they hadn’t beeped out the guy’s response to the draft commissariat. It seemed joyfully, hilariously profane.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/19/2159163/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-retakes-some-ground-around-Bakhmut-but-end-goal-is-unclear

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