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Ukraine Update: Preparations for the Ukrainian counteroffensive are looking very serious [1]

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Date: 2023-03-30  

Increasingly, there are concerns inside Ukraine about the use of Telegram. Though it’s officially headquartered in Dubai, the platform was founded by two Russian entrepreneurs. Their relationship with the Russian government was initially rocky, but in recent years, Telegram has gained support in Moscow, and has been embraced by both military figures and officials as the platform of choice. As The Kyiv Independent points out, Telegram has been praised for its frequent cooperation with Russian authorities and assistance in the “fight against extremism.” In other words, they cooperate readily in turning over user information concerning anyone who comes to the attention of the Kremlin.

If you’ve never used the platform, the answer to how it became so popular is simple. At its heart, it looks like a messaging app, and you can do the same kind of exchange between individuals or groups that you’d do with any such app. But you can also create a public “channel.” That allows the same familiar interface to be used to create a stream of messages to which anyone can listen in or subscribe (here’s the public channel of the pro-Ukrainian military site DeepState as an example).

DeepState’s public-facing Telegram channel has half a million subscribers.

If you’re a soldier on the ground in Ukraine, you can send texts back and forth with your loved ones at home, or broadcast about the day’s events to journalists around the world, all on the same platform. Which many, many people find very handy.

Telegram, like Twitter, has also become a kind of news consolidation service. However, much more than Twitter, Telegram Channels have largely replaced other media for many readers. It’s not only a way in which journalists first surface a story for other journalists, but a place where news aggregators create their own channels to pull together other Telegram posts. That makes Telegram the second-largest source of news in Ukraine. 41% of Ukrainians report using it as a primary source of news. It’s right behind television at 43%.

That’s the dilemma. Telegram was around well before Russia invaded Ukraine. It became the hot new thing in the years right before the war. Many Ukrainians, like many Russians, and many people around the world—including a growing number in the U.S. where Telegram is increasingly popular, especially among groups like the Proud Boys and other white nationalists—have grown used to Telegram as their primary communication channels with friends and family, as well as how they speak to their world. It’s their Facebook Messenger and their Twitter, in one place. That combination of functionality has allowed Telegram to grow its user base from 5% to 31% of worldwide traffic in under five years.

When this soldier was killed in a bombing in a missile strike on Kyiv last year, the city’s mayor confirmed the location of the strike. On Telegram.

But if the U.S. has reasons to be concerned about how Chinese authorities may tap into data from TikTok, Ukraine has very good reasons to be concerned about Telegram. It’s not hard to conceive of the company not just handing over information to the Kremlin on request, which they do, but also setting filters to provide a real-time stream of reports from the front lines. Since Telegram supports posting images and video, that could also mean sending Russia a constant set of potential intelligence information on Ukrainian positions and disposition. And Telegram could be dipping not just into the public channels to produce this information, but into private chats.

There’s also this intrinsic issue: Basic Telegram messages, unlike those on almost every other service, travel unencrypted. If you want encryption, you have to pay for it, and most people don’t. So chats on Telegram can be potentially intercepted and read even without the cooperating of Telegram.

Ukraine is saddled with an issue where the plurality of people get their news from a single platform. A majority of people use that platform for their private chats. A majority use it as their only means of social messaging. And that platform that was both founded by Russians and is cooperating with the Russian government.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff has a (very popular) Telegram channel. So do officers in the Ukrainian military. All over the country, officials use Telegram to provide community news and even to send air raid alerts—along with information on shelters.

See if this sounds like a familiar argument for those who have been listening in on the debates around Twitter.

Another cohort will argue, "There is no alternative to Telegram, it is the most convenient messaging and news service."

I’m sympathetic to that argument. It’s not all that different from things I’ve said about my own continued use of Twitter to source videos and images. It also shows that, even in Ukraine, even in the middle of an invasion, people become so addicted to their familiar digital platforms that they’re willing to accept what, viewed rationally, is a ridiculous level of risk.

Telegram is well past that critical point where it serves so many people for so many purposes that they are willing to tell the Independent, "What's the big deal? Let the FSB read my correspondence and know which channels I subscribe to.”

What Ukraine does about this is still an open question, and I invite you to read the lengthy discussion at Kyiv Independent for more insight.

Then, when thinking about whether the U.S. might take action to limit the use of TikTok, don’t think about it as something that teenagers use to send dance videos. Think about where TikTok might potentially be within a few years, how hard it might be to dislodge once established, and how much information might be streaming to those servers during the worst of all possible situations. That’s certainly how the U.S. intelligence community is viewing it now.

Russian soldier’s advice on phone call opsec

Here’s an interesting example of how Ukraine is using similar intelligence information in the field. And yes, the post is from Twitter, because (sigh) the only places I can find it are there and Telegram.

x An interesting post by a Russian volunteer reveals how 🇺🇦listen to radio/cellular comms. It alleges 🇺🇦 hear almost everything and can act on it very effectively:



Quote: "This post applies primarily to the mobilised and their relatives. There are people who will continue chatting… pic.twitter.com/ypHzu9l51o — Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 28, 2023

The post from a Russian soldier advises soldiers and families on how to keep good OPSEC in calls and texts.

For example: "Farewell, dear, stormtroopers have arrived, tomorrow at 6 am we will advance.” The enemy, knowing the approximate location of the phone is able to take measures to repel the attack. Reverse example: "Honey, we are being taken out to rest the day after tomorrow." For those who do not know yet, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a strong habit of attacking before the shift change in order to either take advantage of the tired mood of those departing, or the ignorance of the situation by the new arrivals.

Counteroffensive Prep

If you’ve been waiting to see those Western vehicles actually in Ukraine, your BINGO card should be close to complete.

x M2 Bradley, M113, HMMWV vehicles under the Ukrainian flag at an undisclosed location



📹https://t.co/D2rRDOKmz8 pic.twitter.com/aTbhtheR9X — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 30, 2023

This follows yesterday’s image of a Leopard 2 tank outfitted with a set of extra reactive armor and a shield against grenade-dropping drones. And while this video of Ukrainian soldiers training on Challenger 2 tanks was made in England, images are circulating that also show them in Ukraine, sporting Ukrainian colors.

Recently, images have shown what appears to be a genuinely impressive number of tanks, troops, and armored vehicles at locations in Ukraine, reportedly preparing for the much-talked-about spring counteroffensive. The where and when of that Ukrainian assault is still unknown … unless, of course, Ukrainian officials are chatting about it on Telegram. If they are, let’s hope they’re engaged in a digital Operation Fortitude.

How serious are those videos of an upcoming counteroffensive looking? About this serious.

x More and more hints of a large upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive



This is maybe the 4th video showing a large armor grouping in addition to new equipment like Leopard or AMX10#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/k5Z5KJ6dOS — @PStyleOne1 (@PStyle0ne1) March 30, 2023

I’m particularly interested to see how Ukraine puts those AMX-10rc wheeled vehicles to use. No matter what the video below says, the French have used them essentially as tanks, not just as armored scouts. However, that was mostly in conflicts where opponents had no significant armored vehicles and in locations where the wheels gave the AMX exceptional speed and maneuverability. What role will they play on a battlefield where each side has over a thousand main battle tanks, and the ground is sometimes made of meter-deep chocolate pudding?

The issue with gun stabilization is real. If you have to stop, aim, and fire, it really doesn’t matter how fast you get into position. You’re likely to be shredded.

The AMX-10rc seems ideally suited to the role of “aggressive reconnaissance.” I keep thinking about some of those situations in the early days of the Kharkiv counteroffensive when, following the initial breakthrough, Ukraine had vehicles zipping around cities like Lyman and even Lysychansk but couldn’t put the force in place to keep Russia from regrouping in these locations. Maybe something like the AMX could turn such breakthroughs into even bigger breakthroughs by leading those aggressive recons.

As with so many other things, we’re likely to know how these shape up Real Soon Now.

Bakhmut

Reports from Wagner Group, which were repeated in several locations, made it seem that Wednesday was going to finally be the day they took Bakhmut, with reports of “major assaults” in every direction and fighting “already at the city center.”

However, as far as can be discerned at this hour, Russian assaults at the north and south edges of the city failed to result in significant advance. Heavy attacks seem to be limited to the east and southeast edges of the Ukrainian-controlled area.

Detail from Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

Fighting in this area, which is just a couple of blocks from where Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin filmed a video at a captured school on Monday, has been going on at least since Tuesday afternoon. It’s really not clear at the moment if Ukraine still holds positions in these blocks or if Russia has successfully taken these blocks, which do include (largely destroyed) city offices.

Fighting is reported to be very difficult, but there are also reports that in recent days Wagner has been less effective in its ability to direct air strikes and artillery at locations before conducting an attempted advance. That may be another signal of the schism between Wagner and the military; it may be a sign that the military can’t assist because it’s short on materiels; it may be because some Wagner commanders have been redeployed to Avdiivka. And it may just be noise that means nothing at all.

They’re so shiny

Let’s look at some more of that gear being laid out before people get it all dirty.

x 🇺🇸Strykers & Cougars are now in the capable hands of 🇺🇦Air Assault Forces.

Took them for a test drive. I’m glad that the best soldiers in the world are getting the best vehicles from our partners.

They will bring us closer to victory.

Thank you to @POTUS @SecDef & all Americans. pic.twitter.com/AawMwbAkqm — Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 30, 2023

I don’t know what “unswalking support” means, but I’m going to be using it from now on.

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