(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Morning Digest: Democratic St. Pete mayor finishes first in primary ahead of tough general election [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2017-08-31 Senate ● ND-Sen: Wealthy state Sen. Tom Campbell jumped into the race against Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp a few weeks ago and immediately launched two TV commercials emphasizing his love of farming and love of Trump. According to InfoForum columnist Mike McFeely, Campbell spent $150,000 on his opening ad campaign, which is not a small sum in North Dakota. Campbell is likely trying to intimidate other potential GOP candidates, including Rep. Kevin Cramer, state Rep. Rick Becker, and businesswoman Kathy Neset, by demonstrating that he's willing and able to spend what it takes to win. GOP sources also tell McFeely that more ads are coming soon. ● WI-Sen: This week, state Rep. Dale Kooyenga announced that he would not seek the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. So far, businessman Kevin Nicholson, who has the backing of the Club for Growth, is the only notable declared Republican. However, state Sen. Leah Vukmir reportedly is likely to join him. Kooyenga's seat is nested within Vukmir's state Senate district, and he may run to succeed her if she jumps into the Senate race. Gubernatorial ● AL-Gov: This week, GOP Rep. Bradley Byrne announced that he would seek re-election rather than mount a second bid for governor. Byrne's first gubernatorial campaign in 2010 did not go well: While he entered the race as the frontrunner, he ended up getting attacked from both the left and the right and losing the primary runoff to a pre-sex scandal Robert Bentley 56-44. Byrne has been talking about trying again since January, but understandably, he never sounded enthusiastic about it. Byrne did say that if Kay Ivey, who succeeded a post-sex scandal Robert Bentley earlier this year, decides not to seek a full term, he may reconsider. However, while Ivey has not announced her plans, she looks very likely to run. ● CA-Gov: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti seems to be laying the groundwork for a possible 2020 bid for president. (Either that or he just really cares about unseating New Hampshire Republican Ted Gatsas, the mayor of Manchester. In which case, good for him, more people should care about mayoral races. But it's probably option No. 1.) However, Garcetti still is leaving the door open to a possible run for governor of California. Garcetti told the Sacramento Bee that he has "not made any decision on that," though he didn't say anything else. Several other Democrats have been running to succeed termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown for months, or even years, and it would be a surprise if Garcetti jumped in this late. ● OH-Gov: Ex-Cincinnati Mayor Jerry Springer, who hosts some talk show or something like that, didn't rule out a bid for the Democratic nod for governor of Ohio three months ago, but he's been pretty quiet since then. (About this, not in general.) But it seems that Springer is more interested than ever about running. Cincinnati.com reports that Springer recently asked Cleveland Democrats, "Is it too late to enter the Ohio governor's race?" and was told that no, it isn't too late. Springer also recently told the National Journal’s Zach Cohen that he "can't help" considering because people ask him about running for office again “every day." State Sen. Sandra Williams, a leader in the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party, tells Cleveland.com that she recently spoke to Springer about the campaign, and that he's "very serious" about running. Williams said on Wednesday that Springer hopes to decide in the next 30 to 45 days, though that timeline was not set. Jene Galvin, a close Springer friend who co-hosts a podcast with him, said that Springer will decide within the next two weeks. Back in 1982, before his TV career began, Springer ran for governor, and he gave us a very honest TV commercial about his past indiscretions. Springer told the audience that, "Nine years ago, I spent time with a woman I shouldn't have. And I paid with a check. I wish I hadn't done that, and the truth is I wish no one would ever know. But in the rough world of politics, opponents are not about to let personal embarrassments lay to rest." Springer ended up taking a distant third place with 20 percent of the vote, losing to eventual winner Richard Celeste. Springer has remained active in the Ohio Democratic Party even during the height of his TV notoriety, and he has mulled other statewide campaigns. Earlier this year, Springer temporarily ruled out running for governor but gave us a little idea of what his campaign could look like, saying that after Trump's win, "People are thinking that somebody outside the traditional political establishment can win. His constituency is basically mine. These are fans of the show. I could be Trump without the racism." Several other Ohio Democrats, who for better or worse are far less well-known than Springer, are already running. ● VA-Gov: Republican Ed Gillespie is out with the first negative TV ad of the general election. The narrator argues that Democrat Ralph Northam, who serves as lieutenant governor, "cast the deciding vote in favor of sanctuary cities that let illegal immigrants who commit crimes back on the street," before it switches to some boring positive stuff about Gillespie. As the Washington Post's Fenit Nirappil explains, the GOP-controlled legislature considered a bill earlier this year that would have prevented localities from refusing to help detain or deport undocumented immigrants. GOP Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment saw the chance to inflict some political pain on Northam and briefly voted with the Senate Democrats against the bill, resulting in a 20-20 tie that was up to Northam to break. Northam voted to kill the bill, giving the GOP the talking point they wanted. The bill then came up again, and this time it passed with Norment's vote, only to be predictably vetoed by Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe. House ● PA-11: A number of Republicans have expressed interest in succeeding Senate candidate Lou Barletta in this conservative Wyoming Valley seat, and one sounds likely to make his move soon. Businessman Dan Meuser, who served as revenue secretary under ex-Gov. Tom Corbett, told Philly.com that he expects to decide "in the next several days." After Barletta unseated longtime Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski on his third try in 2010, the GOP legislature quickly redrew what was a Democratic-leaning seat to protect Barletta. Romney won 54-45 here in 2012, and Trump took the 11th District 60-36; even Corbett, who lost re-election 55-45 in 2014, won 53-47 here. However, two noteworthy Democrats say they are considering running here. State Sen. John Yudichak told reporter James Halpin that, while he plans to run for re-election next year, "I just can't ignore the encouragement I've received from both local and national Democrats who have asked me to consider a run for Congress, and that he expects to decide at the end of September. Dennis Wolff, who served as state agriculture secretary under Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell from 2003 to 2009, and now works as a dairy farmer, also says he's giving the idea some thought. ● PA-15: Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent is one of the more moderate Republicans in the House, and he has been a vocal intra-party critic of Donald Trump. Notably, Dent spoke out and voted against Trumpcare, and has described Trump's morals as "indefensible." Democrats haven't fielded a credible candidate against Dent, who represents a Lehigh Valley seat, since 2010, but for the first time, he may have trouble on his right flank. State Rep. Justin Simmons tells the local station 69 News that he's "strongly considering" a primary bid, saying he's "90 percent there" on his decision. Simmons, who declared that Dent is "America's most liberal Republican," gave a preview of his strategy. Simmons argued that, "On every major issue from Obamacare repeal, tax reform, spending; Dent sides with the Democrats and gloats at sticking it to Republicans and the president. Frankly, I have had enough of Charlie Dent attacking Republican policies." If local Republicans share Simmons frustration with Dent, he may be in for a very tough primary. However, it's far from clear if Simmons, or any other GOP challengers, will have the resources to mount a serious campaign against Dent, who had $1.1 million on-hand at the end of June. But Trump has made it no secret that he wants to get rid of troublesome Republicans like Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, and if he decides to trash Dent as well, the congressman could be in real trouble. If Dent does lose his primary, it could endanger Team Red's hold on a seat they've held since 1998, when now-Sen. Pat Toomey first won here. While Trump carried Pennsylvania's 15th District 52-44, Mitt Romney won it by a smaller 51-48 margin four years before, while Democratic Sen. Bob Casey took it 50-48 during his 2012 re-election campaign. Still, even a weak Republican may be able to keep this district competitive. In 2014, as GOP Gov. Tom Corbett was losing re-election 55-45, he narrowly won the 15th 50.3-49.7. Democrats will also need to find a credible candidate who is willing to take the chance that Dent will be the GOP nominee again. ● SC-01: On Wednesday, state Rep. Katie Arrington kicked off her primary bid against GOP Rep. Mark Sanford, South Carolina's former governor. Last year, Sanford turned back an underfunded primary challenge from state Rep. Jenny Horne 56-44 (Arrington now holds Horne's seat), but there's at least one sign that Arrington will have more help than Horne. Arrington immediately earned endorsements from state House Speaker Jay Lucas and House Majority Leader Gary Simrill. As The Post and Courier's Schuyler Kropf notes, both Lucas and Simrill served in the legislature during Sanford's governorship, and there's likely very little love lost between them. Sanford has a horrible relationship with the GOP-led legislature: In one notable incident, Sanford once brought two pigs onto the floor of the state House of Representatives, and they proceeded to defecate onto the carpet. Now that Sanford is once again serving in the legislative branch, he's gotten to be the one making trouble for the guy in the nicest office. Back in February, Sanford was the subject of a Politico Magazine article titled "I'm a Dead Man Walking," where Sanford told Tim Alberta that Trump "has fanned the flames of intolerance" and said he can't "look the other way" as Trump lies. Arrington wasted little time hoisting up the pro-Trump banner in this heavily red Charleston-area seat, calling the primary a fight to stand with Trump, "not bash him to leftist cheerleaders." As we wrote in February, it's really quite remarkable that Sanford's political career has lasted this long. Back in 2009, as he was eyeing a run for president, Sanford disappeared for several days. After his staff covered for him and said he was hiking the Appalachian Trail, the married governor admitted he was actually in Argentina visiting his mistress. Sanford was eventually censured by the legislature but not impeached, and he was termed-out of office in early 2011. Two years later, Sanford ran for and won his old House seat in a special election. As Sanford's underwhelming 56-44 win last year shows, a significant portion of the primary electorate very much does not like him. However, Sanford does still have his fans: As he told Alberta, "I'm a dead man walking. If you've already been dead, you don't fear it as much. I've been dead politically." However, his Trump bashing may alienate more primary voters than his trail hiking ever did. Sanford is notoriously cheap (his former employees say he required them to use both sides of Post-it notes), but he has been stocking up for a competitive primary for years. At the end of June, Sanford had $1.4 million in the bank, while Arrington will start from scratch. But if Arrington has the connections to raise money, she could catch up to him. Sanford only brought in $333,000 during the first six months of the year, not an incredible sum for an incumbent. And if Trump decides to send a few mean Tweets Sanford's way, he could have problems no amount of money can fix over. This district backed Trump 54-40, and it's likely to stay red regardless of who emerges as the GOP nominee. Legislative ● NC Redistricting, NC State House, NC State Senate: On Wednesday, North Carolina Republican legislators finally passed new replacement maps for the state House and state Senate (see here for images) after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a federal court ruling striking down 28 of 170 districts back in June over racial gerrymandering. Acting under a court-imposed deadline of Sept. 1, Republicans had the same consultant who drew the invalidated 2011 maps come up with replacement versions that try to achieve the same partisan end: preserve the GOP's critical supermajority, which is just barely above the three-fifths level required to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes in the House (their Senate supermajority is more secure). North Carolina's state constitution doesn't give the governor any legal role in the redistricting process, meaning these maps will go into effect for 2018 if they receive judicial approval. However, with significant elements of the GOP's previous partisan and racial gerrymandering carrying over in the new maps, plaintiffs in the case are seeking to have the court block their implementation and draw its own. This litigation could subsequently wind up back before the U.S. Supreme Court, while there's still a separate lawsuit over the original gerrymanders that recently went before the North Carolina Supreme Court, leaving further uncertainty about how the 2018 elections will play out in the Tarheel State. Mayoral ● Atlanta, GA Mayor: On behalf of the local news station Channel 2 Action News, the GOP pollster Landmark Communications takes their second look at this November's nonpartisan primary to succeed termed-out Democrat Kasim Reed. The results are below, with Landmark's March results in parentheses. In the very likely event that no one takes a majority, there will be a December runoff. City Councilor Mary Norwood: 25 (29) City Councilor Keisha Lance Bottoms: 12 (9) Ex-Atlanta chief operating officer Peter Aman: 12 (2) City Council President Ceasar Mitchell: 10 (8) Ex-City Council President Cathy Woolard: 7 (6) State Sen. Vincent Fort: 6 (9) City Councilor Kwanza Hall: 5 (6) Ex-Fulton County Commission Chair John Eaves: 4 (4) The only other recent poll we've seen was a July SurveyUSA poll that also had Norwood far ahead, but showed a tight race for second between the rest of the field. Norwood, who identifies as an independent in this heavily Democratic-city, ran in 2009 as well for what was an open seat. She led then-state Sen. Kasim Reed 45-38 in the first round, but she lost the runoff by just over 700 votes. Racial politics might also play a role in how this contest turns out: Fort, Eaves, Hall, Mitchell, Bottoms, and Sterling are African American, while Norwood, Woolard, or Aman would be the city's first white mayor since the mid-1970s. However, if Landmark is on target, there's a possibility that the runoff will be between two white candidates. 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