(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Morning Digest: America's worst sheriff hopes for a rematch, four years after getting turfed out [1]

['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2020-08-03  

Arpaio was first elected to this office back in 1992 and spent 24 years cementing his image as one of America's most venal and abusive lawmen. Arpaio delighted his fervent, immigrant-hating base as he earned a reputation for mistreating prisoners, including serving them discolored green and blue meat, forcing them to wear pink underwear, and sending them to live in the "Tent City" prison, which he called a concentration camp and where he'd bragged that temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Arpaio also wasted taxpayer money on a quest to "investigate" Barack Obama's birth certificate, and he still refused to accept its legitimacy as recently as 2018.

However, the sheriff's department's racial profiling policies against Latinos finally got Arpaio into trouble with the law in 2016. That October, just a month before his re-election campaign, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that it would charge Arpaio with criminal contempt of court for violating a judge's orders to curtail his department's unconstitutional profiling practices. Arpaio ended up losing his bid for a seventh term that year by a lopsided 56-44 margin against Penzone even as Donald Trump was carrying Maricopa County 48-45; Arpaio had defeated Penzone 51-45 four years before.

However, while Trump couldn't rescue Arpaio's career, he did save him from what could have been a six-month prison sentence. In 2017, Arpaio was found guilty for contempt of court, but Trump pardoned him later that year.

Arpaio launched a U.S. Senate bid in early 2018, but he consistently struggled in the polls and raised little money. Then-Rep. Martha McSally, the favorite of national Republicans, ended up defeating former state Sen. Kelly Ward 55-28, while Arpaio took third with just 18%; Arpaio even took third in his Maricopa County base with just 22% of the vote. Despite that poor showing, Arpaio, who is 88, announced last year that he was running for sheriff again. Arpaio has said that, if he returns to office, "I'm going to continue everything I did in the past," including bringing back the "Tent City" jail.

Both Sheridan and Crawford have pledged not to use racial profiling, though they've said that they would work with federal immigration enforcement. Sheridan, however, has some of the same liabilities as his old boss. He was found in civil contempt four years ago for refusing to comply with the judicial order curtailing the department's racial profiling, and while Sheridan was not charged, investigators said last year that they'd have called for him to be fired had Arpaio won re-election in 2016.

Election Changes

Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete summary of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to elections and voting procedures as a result of the coronavirus.

● Indiana: The NAACP and Common Cause have filed a federal lawsuit challenging an Indiana law that requires absentee ballots be received by officials by noon on Election Day in order to count. The plaintiffs argue that this law violates the Constitution and instead want ballots to count so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within 10 days. They also want officials to adopt "the mail-in ballot tracking capability provided by the United States Postal Service."

● Michigan: The Michigan Supreme Court issued a decision that declined to hear an appeal of a Court of Appeals ruling that rejected a request by the League of Women Voters that election officials be ordered to accept mail ballots so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within six days. Under current law, ballots must be received by Election Day, but plaintiffs argued that this practice conflicts with an amendment to the state constitution that voters passed in 2018 establishing the right to vote by mail.

The court's four Republican justices voted not to take up the appeal, but its three Democratic members signed on to a dissenting opinion authored by Justice Richard Bernstein. "I write to express how strongly I disagree" with the court's decision not to consider plaintiffs' appeal, Bernstein wrote, adding that he was "baffled and troubled by the majority's vote."

Bernstein noted that the number of absentee ballot requests in Michigan was already far greater than in previous years, creating an issue that should merit judicial review. He also pointed out that the state's 2016 presidential race was decided by just 11,000 votes, fewer than the 41,000 to 64,000 absentee ballots plaintiffs estimate will not be counted because of the election day receipt deadline.

● New Jersey: New Jersey's Democratic-run state Senate appears likely to pass a bill to establish early voting in the state for the first time, with the chamber's president saying he supports a measure that one lawmaker says he plans to introduce in the "next couple of weeks." Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy also says he favors early voting. It's not clear yet whether the idea has the backing of leaders in the Assembly, which is also run by Democrats.

Senate

● GA-Sen-A: Democrat Jon Ossoff has recorded his latest TV ad from quarantine while his wife, physician Alisha Kramer, recovers from the coronavirus (Ossoff himself tested negative). Unsurprisingly, the ad's topic is the pandemic. Ossoff, speaking directly to, well, his webcam, explains that he's home because of his wife's diagnosis. He says she's "getting better, but too many Americans are still getting sick."

"We need to listen to medical experts, coordinate a national testing strategy, and stop politicizing masks," he continues. "I approve this message because nurses and doctors like Alisha—they're doing their jobs. It's way past time politicians do theirs."

● KS-Sen: Rep. Roger Marshall's new ad argues that he can defeat former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach in Tuesday's Republican primary but that two other candidates, wealthy businessman Bob Hamilton and Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom, can't. This isn't the first time that one of Kobach's intra-party opponents has tried this type of messaging, but it didn't quite achieve the desired result two years ago.

Back in 2018, then-Gov. Jeff Colyer faced Kobach and a few other opponents in a primary to keep his seat. Colyer ran a commercial that featured photos of a trio of other contenders as the narrator declared that "a vote for any of these candidates is essentially a vote for Kris Kobach, increasing his chances of victory."

It's possible that this argument would have helped Colyer prevail had Donald Trump not endorsed Kobach one day before the gubernatorial primary. In the end, though, Kobach beat Colyer 40.6-40.5—a margin of 343 votes—while the trio of candidates Colyer argued could secure a win for Kobach took a combined 18%; Kobach went on to lose the general election three months later.

Marshall is very much hoping to avoid a repeat of both outcomes, which helps explain why he's attacking both the self-funding Hamilton and Lindstrom, who has earned very little money or attention but could still earn enough votes to affect the outcome.

Hamilton, for his part, has spent most of his time attacking Marshall, but he targets both the congressman and Kobach in his new commercial.

● MA-Sen: Republican pollster JMC Analytics has released a crowdfunded poll of Massachusetts' Sept. 1 Democratic primary that finds Sen. Ed Markey narrowly leading Rep. Joe Kennedy 44-41. This is the first survey from a reputable outfit we've seen in three months, and just the second to find Markey with an edge this year. However, the other polls from reliable sources conducted in 2020 have only given Kennedy small leads.

The two are also unusually well-matched in fundraising: Both raised $1.9 million in the second quarter, and both had $4.4 million on-hand as of June 30. However, Kennedy spent much more in the spring, shelling out $3.3 million to $1.5 million for Markey. That reflects the campaigns' differing approaches to TV advertising: Kennedy began hitting the airwaves in early May, while Markey only recently went up with his first ad.

● MN-Sen: We have our first-ever public poll of Minnesota's Senate race, courtesy of the gun violence prevention group Giffords, which previously endorsed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith and now finds her leading former Republican Rep. Jason Lewis 48-39 as she seeks her first full term in the Senate. The survey, from Public Policy Polling, also shows Joe Biden up 52-42 on Donald Trump.

The matchup has received little attention from most outside groups, as neither Democrats nor Republicans have reserved fall advertising time for the contest. Smith has also widely outraised Lewis, who was turfed out of a suburban Twin Cities seat after just a single term last cycle: The incumbent brought in $2.2 million in the second quarter and had $5.8 million stockpiled, while her challenger raised just $834,000 and had only $928,000 left to spend.

Three years ago, Smith was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Democrat Al Franken's resignation and handily won a special election for the final two years of Franken's term by a 53-42 margin.

House

● CA-04: Democrat Brynne Kennedy has released a survey from Lake Research Partners that shows her trailing Republican Rep. Tom McClintock just 45-42; the sample also finds Donald Trump ahead only 46-45 in a seat he carried 54-39 in 2016.

McClintock won re-election 54-46 last cycle against a credible opponent, and the contest for this district, which includes the northern Sacramento suburbs and the Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains, hasn't attracted much attention this time around. Kennedy, however, did outraise the incumbent by a notable $383,000 to $173,000 during the second quarter of 2020, though McClintock ended June with a $646,000 to $357,000 cash-on-hand lead.

● GA-05: Filing closed Friday for the Sept. 29 all-party special election for the final months of John Lewis' term, and in a surprise, state Sen. Nikema Williams decided not to run even though she's already the Democratic nominee in the November contest for the seat in the next Congress. Williams, who serves as state party chair, said she would instead focus on "maximizing turnout" in the state to aid Joe Biden.

Seven people did end up filing for the special election for this safely blue Atlanta-based seat, though. The Democratic field includes former Morehouse College President Robert Franklin; former Atlanta City Councilman Kwanza Hall, who took 4% in the 2017 nonpartisan primary for mayor; state Rep. "Able" Mable Thomas, who badly lost the 1992 and 2008 primaries to Lewis; and former state Rep. Keisha Waites, who lost the primary runoff for the neighboring 13th District 53-25 in June to Rep. David Scott.

The other three candidates are educator Barrington Martin, a Democrat who lost the June primary to Lewis 88-12; Libertarian Chase Oliver; and independent Steven Muhammad. In the likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote in September, then the top-two vote-getters, regardless of party, would compete in a Dec. 1 runoff. Williams, who faces no serious opposition in the November general election, would then succeed the winner of the special in early January when the new Congress convenes.

● KS-01: We've seen a lot of ugly Republican messaging related to the coronavirus pandemic, but this may be the first ad we've encountered to explicitly go after stay-at-home orders. Former Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann's newest commercial accuses Finney County Commissioner Bill Clifford, who is his main opponent in Tuesday's primary for this safely red seat, of having "voted to extend the stay-at-home orders and business closures even after Democrat Gov. Laura Kelly lifted them." The spot doesn't actually mention why those orders were in place, though it does declare that Clifford is "wrong on taxes."

Clifford himself is running a new ad that declares that Mann, who served as the number two to now-former Gov. Jeff Colyer during 2018, was part of an administration that "passed hundreds of millions in government spending" when property taxes were increasing. The narrator also says that Mann bankrolled "liberal Democrats" from his home in Johnson County, a large suburban Kansas City community that is located well outside of this rural western Kansas district.

Outside groups have also been getting involved here on both sides. OpenSecrets reports that With Honor Fund, which backs military veterans from both parties, has spent at least $418,000 to promote Clifford. Meanwhile, a group called American Values First has deployed $330,000 on advertising that declares that Clifford has tried to hike taxes. Clifford, who has self-funded most of his campaign, has outspent Mann during the contest.

● KS-02: Indicted Rep. Steve Watkins begins his latest commercial for Tuesday's Republican primary by talking about his military service before telling the audience, "My opponent, [state Treasurer] Jake LaTurner, is all about self-service." Watkins asks the viewer, "Aren't you fed up with career politicians? Fed up with paying LaTurner's massive tax increase, and fed up with his bill that lets the government seize your property?"

● MI-06: The DCCC has added state Rep. Jon Hoadley, who is the heavy favorite to win Tuesday's Democratic primary to face veteran Republican Rep. Fred Upton, to its Red to Blue list.

● MI-10: On July 20, the far-right Club for Growth publicized a WPA Intelligence poll that gave its endorsed candidate, state Rep. Shane Hernandez, a modest lead in Tuesday's Republican primary for this safely red seat. Hernandez posted a 33-27 advantage over wealthy businesswoman Lisa McClain, while retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Doug Slocum was in third with 10%. The memo notes that an unreleased mid-June poll had McClain beating Hernandez 32-27, while Slocum was at 12%.

We haven't seen any other surveys of the contest to succeed retiring Rep. Paul Mitchell in this district, which includes northern Macomb County and Michigan's "Thumb" region. McClain, who has financed most of her campaign, has massively outspent both Hernandez and Slocum, while a group called the U.S. Future Fund has deployed $460,000 on ads supporting her and going after Hernandez. The Club, though, has spent a hefty $1.5 million on pro-Hernandez and anti-McClain commercials.

Mitchell himself is supporting Hernandez, a decision he says he made after seeing that McClain’s allies were launching attacks that were "misrepresentations at best and outright lies at worse." Former Gov. Rick Snyder, meanwhile, is in Slocum's corner.

● MN-05: Rep. Ilhan Omar is airing what the Washington Post's Dave Weigel says is her first negative TV spot against attorney Antone Melton-Meaux, who is her opponent in the expensive Aug. 11 Democratic primary. The narrator declares that "as a partner at one of the worst union-busting law firms in the country, Antone Melton-Meaux defended corporations accused of mistreating workers and firing pregnant employees."

● TN-01: Pharmacist Diana Harshbarger led in the only poll we've seen of Thursday's crowded Republican primary for this safely red East Tennessee seat, and the anti-tax Club for Growth is very much acting like she's the main obstacle for its endorsed candidate, state Rep. Timothy Hill.

The Club began running commercials in mid-July that argued, "Harshbarger was an officer of a company busted for selling counterfeit Chinese drugs to treat American dialysis patients, claiming the drugs were American-made and approved." According to OpenSecrets, the Club has spent $872,000 here, with $366,000 of that going to anti-Harshbarger messaging. Another $81,000 has been devoted towards attacking another candidate, state Sen. Rusty Crowe, while the rest has been for pro-Hill advertising.

Another candidate, physician Josh Gapp, also has been airing a commercial that decries the "forked-tongue politicians who decry the swamp but take gobs of campaign cash from the slimiest of swamp creatures." The spot features animations of several of Gapp's opponents, but it notably focuses the most on Harshbarger.

Harshbarger herself is running an ad where she declares that her foes are "lying trying to discredit my lifetime of hard work, just like the swamp tried to do to President Trump." The spot then shows pictures of Crowe, Hill, former Kingsport Mayor John Clark, and former Johnson City Mayor Steve Darden, as the narrator says, "These four snakes have been in politics for 80 years combined. They voted to raise your taxes and give your money to illegal immigrants."

Ballot Measures

● NJ Ballot: On Thursday, both chambers of New Jersey's Democratic-led legislature mustered the required three-fifths majorities needed to place a proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot that could have a big impact on the 2021 state legislative races. The measure, which must be approved by a majority of voters, would require the state to use the current legislative boundaries for next year's elections if New Jersey does not receive census data by Feb. 15. New maps would then need to be approved by March 1 of 2022 for use in the following year's legislative contests.

Both chambers voted along party lines to put the proposed amendment on the ballot. Democrats have argued that, because of the coronavirus pandemic, the state may not get the data it needs to draw new districts in time for next year's elections. Republicans have insisted in turn that the measure is about protecting Democratic incumbents, and that the state could solve the potential problem by delaying the 2021 primaries. Several voting rights groups have also said that delays in redistricting could harm Latino and Asian voters, whose numbers have increased since the current lines were crafted in 2011.

Other Races

● AZ Corporation Commission: Thanks to a ballot access debacle earlier this year, Arizona Republicans need 2018 candidate Jim O'Connor to pull off a successful write-in campaign in Tuesday's primary so they can field a full slate of candidates in this fall's elections for the powerful Corporation Commission. Team Red currently controls the body 4-1, but if O'Connor fails to get enough support on Tuesday, they'll be surrendering a seat by default ahead of what could already be a very tough year for the party.

The Corporation Commission, which is tasked with regulating utilities throughout the state, has been nicknamed Arizona's "fourth branch of government," due to the distinct role the state constitution lays out for it. Members are elected statewide to four-year terms, and last cycle, each party won one of the two seats that were on the ballot. The remaining three seats, all of which are Republican-held, are up this cycle. Each party may nominate three candidates, and voters in both the primary and general election can cast up to three votes. The three contenders with the most support in November will be elected, so Democrats need to take two of the top three spots to flip the commission.

The problem for Republicans, though, is that four of the party's six candidates failed to turn in enough valid signatures, which would leave them with just two candidates in November; Democrats, by contrast, are successfully fielding a full slate. In order to get that third Republican on the general election ballot, O'Connor, who narrowly lost the 2018 primary, is waging a write-in campaign. No other candidates have launched write-in efforts, and O'Connor needs at win at least 6,663 valid votes on Tuesday—the minimum number of petitions that were needed to make the ballot—in order to advance to November.

● Maricopa County, AZ Attorney: Adel Allister was appointed as the top prosecutor of America's fourth-largest county last year after incumbent Bill Montgomery, a fellow Republican, resigned to join the state Supreme Court, and three Democrats are competing in Tuesday's primary for the right to face her this fall. Team Blue's candidates are Julie Gunnigle, who is a former prosecutor in Illinois, and former public defenders Will Knight and Bob McWhirter.

The Appeal's Meg O'Connor writes that all three Democrats "want to change the county's harsh approach to charging and sentencing," though there are notable differences in their plans. Gunnigle says that she wants to bring the county's incarceration rate down to the national average, which O'Connor writes would be roughly a one-quarter decrease from Maricopa County's current level, while Knight has pledged to cut the prison population by half. McWhirter also says that he wants to reduce the number of people in jail, though he has not said by how much.

The trio has also each declared that they would not prosecute minor marijuana charges, though Knight has gone the furthest and said that this would apply to possession of any drugs. Knight alone has also pledged not to seek the death penalty.

● Oakland County, MI Executive: Dave Coulter became the first Democrat to lead Oakland County, Michigan since the office of executive was created in 1974 after he was appointed to succeed the late Republican L. Brooks Patterson last year, and he faces an expensive challenge from County Treasurer Andy Meisner in Tuesday's party primary.

Meisner had announced his campaign for executive almost a year ago, a few months before Patterson's death, and Coulter had initially endorsed him. But Coulter shifted gears in October, saying he wanted to stay in office because he could "see all the possibilities" of what he could accomplish. Meisner, meanwhile, has tried to argue that Coulter "got it right when he endorsed my campaign." Meisner has outraised the incumbent $1.1 million to $446,000.

The GOP primary is a contest between former state Sen. Mike Kowall and attorney Jeffrey Nutt. Despite the Republican Party's long hold on this office, though, neither candidate has brought in much money: Kowall has hauled in $39,000, while Nutt has raised $18,000. The general election will take place in November for this 51-43 Clinton county in the Detroit suburbs.

Ad Roundup

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/8/3/1965895/-Morning-Digest-America-s-worst-sheriff-hopes-for-a-rematch-four-years-after-getting-turfed-out

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/