(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Undoing the DeSantimander - a look at a nonpartisan map [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-02 The map As we all know, after a long drawn out process, Florida approved a very heavily gerrymandered Congressional map for use in elections from 2022-2030, much at the insistence of Ron DeSantis, who successfully bullied the legislature to do what he wanted. While the map looks mostly fine to anyone unfamiliar with the states geography, it tears apart so many communities of interest in the state. I decided to try for an attempt of drawing a hypothetical nonpartisan map of the state. You can see a high resolution image of the map here. Here are the partisan stats. Note that I tried to keep consistency between the numbering of Districts in my map with those in the DeSantis map. District 2020 President 2016 President 2012 President 01 R+32.5 R+38.5 R+37.7 02 R+11.0 R+12.0 R+08.2 03 R+14.0 R+14.8 R+11.1 04 D+13.5 D+09.1 D+07.5 05 R+29.4 R+36.7 R+40.5 06 R+12.5 R+11.8 R+01.1 07 D+11.1 D+10.0 R+02.0 08 R+17.2 R+20.5 R+14.4 09 D+16.3 D+25.2 D+22.7 10 D+24.8 D+24.0 D+19.1 11 R+36.1 R+36.7 R+25.9 12 R+20.9 R+21.7 R+08.0 13 D+03.4 D+02.5 D+09.8 14 D+07.3 D+09.2 D+07.7 15 D+03.2 D+01.7 D+05.7 16 R+11.0 R+12.5 R+09.8 17 R+24.7 R+25.7 R+17.0 18 R+18.2 R+18.7 R+11.5 19 R+18.8 R+20.3 R+21.7 20 D+48.0 D+51.6 D+53.8 21 R+16.3 R+17.1 R+09.9 22 D+16.2 D+21.2 D+25.3 23 D+13.7 D+15.0 D+14.5 24 D+52.8 D+67.6 D+71.6 25 D+12.2 D+17.7 D+15.7 26 R+09.8 D+16.5 D+06.7 27 D+04.1 D+20.0 D+07.0 28 R+03.5 D+18.3 D+14.3 Lets also go into detail regarding how Districts would vote in 2022, and other stuff that might be worth mentioning. District 1 is a safe seat for Matt Gaetz. R Hold District 2 would probably still have seen Neal Dunn and Al Lawson face off as they did in the actual map, and it would still be an safe win for Neal Dunn, even if the race may have been interesting in older coalitions. In the 2016-2020 map, Tallahassee and Jacksonville were perpetually at war with each other in Democratic primaries, so a run in a Jacksonville seat would not see him, a politician from Tallahassee nominated, even though my map creates a Dem seat there. R Hold District 3 is a safe seat for Kat Cammack, though it would have been interesting with older coalitions. R Hold District 4 is a seat that would have been open. The seat that would have went for a Dem in 2022, though by a margin way closer than it should have been due to the 2022 Dem collapse in Florida that allowed DeSantis but not Rubio to win it. A possible Dem candidate could have been State Senator Audrey Gibson, who seemed to have ambitions for a seat like this in the redistricting process, and who probably could have beaten Al Lawson in the primary if he were to choose to run here. The Democratic primary would be controlled by Black voters. D Gain District 5 is a safe seat for John Rutherford. R Hold District 6 is a safe seat for Michael Waltz, though it would have been very interesting with older coalitions. This would be the seat now Governor DeSantis would have been representing in the US House back in the day, though he would have actually lost it to a Dem in 2012. R Hold District 7 is Stephanie Murphys seat. She probably runs for re-election instead of retiring if this seat were in place, and would have won it, though its hard to say how close it would have been given the fact that DeSantis would have won it, and Rubio may or may not have. D Gain District 8 is a safe seat for Bill Posey. R Hold District 9 would have voted for Darren Soto by a slightly reduced margin from the actual map, in a seat that would still have voted for DeSantis and Demings. Its also a Hispanic seat. D Hold District 10 is a safe seat that probably still would have seen Maxwell Frost, the most left wing member of Floridas Congressional delegation, elected to it. This seat has a strong Black population in it, and stronger than the seat DeSantis drew though it is also slightly less Democratic. D Hold District 11 is a safe seat for Daniel Webster. R Hold District 12 is a safe seat for Gus Bilirakis, though it would have been interesting with older coalitions. R Hold District 13 would have been a battleground seat in 2022. Charlie Crist may or may not have ran for re-election here instead of running for Governor, but either way, Dems would have held this seat given the weakness of Republican candidate Anna Lina, who underperformed considerably and would have lost here even in a seat that still would have voted for DeSantis and Rubio. Perhaps Dems could lose it to a stronger Republican sometime later in the decade though. D Gain District 14 would have been a battleground seat in 2022, though Kathy Castor still would have won re-election by a narrow margin in a seat that would have voted for DeSantis and Rubio due to her opponents weakness. D Hold District 15 would have been a battleground seat in 2022, though Laurel Lee would have won it by a strong margin due to her strengths as a candidate combined with the strong Republican performance in Florida in 2022 as it were. Its hard to say if Democrats would want to try to remove her in 2024. R Hold District 16 is a safe seat for Vern Buchanan. R Hold District 17 is a safe seat for Greg Steube. R Hold District 18 is a safe seat for Scott Franklin. R Hold District 19 is a safe seat for Byron Donalds. R Hold District 20 is a safe Black seat for Sheila McCormick. I made the seat far more compact, keeping it wholly in Broward County instead of giving it a connection to Palm Beach County through the everglades. D Hold District 21 is a safe seat for Bryan Mast, and a safer seat than what he actually has. R Hold District 22 is a seat for Lois Frankel. The seat is closer than what she actually got, and may have voted for DeSantis, and would have seen her get a close result, but she still would have won. D Hold District 23 is a seat for Jared Moskowitz. The seat is slightly less close than what he actually got, but not by much. It may or may not have voted for DeSantis. D Hold District 24 is a safe Black seat for Frederica Wilson. D Hold District 25 is a seat for Debbie Shultz. It would have been a very close race given the strong Republican performance in Florida in 2022, though she would have narrowly won. The seat did vote for DeSantis and possibly Rubio. D Hold District 26 is a safe seat for Mario Diaz-Balart. It actually would have been a battleground in the past decade, having voted for a number of Democrats both for President and downballot, even holding steady for the statewide Dems in 2018, and he may have lost then or maybe even in 2016. However, that strong Dem performance was not a thing either before or after the 2010s, and its unlikely to be competitive again. R Hold District 27 would have been a battleground seat in 2022, though Maria Salazar would have won it by a strong margin due to her strengths as a candidate combined with the strong Republican performance in Florida in 2022 as it were. Its a few points to the left of her actual seat, but she still would have won easily. Its hard to say if Democats would want to try to remove her in 2024, and this seat is moving against us more slowly than Miami-Dade is as a whole in general. R Hold District 28 is a seat for Carlos Gimenez. It may or may not have been seen as competitive ahead of the election, being a few points to the left of his actual seat, but he would have won easily. R Hold Overall, this map is far more balanced than the map that DeSantis rammed through, and would see Democrats do better accordingly. 3 seats that Dems lost in real life would have been won in this map, bringing their total from 8 seats to 11 seats. Biden would have netting 5 seats in 2020 going from 8 to 13. It actually would have seen a majority of seats voting for Democrats in a number of elections during the 2010s, including some where they actually lost statewide like 2016 President, and 2018 Senator, Governor, and Chief Financial Officer, potentially indicating a slight geography bias towards them. All this happens even though DeSantis actually carried more seats in my map than he did in his own map in 2022. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/2/2161615/-Undoing-the-DeSantimander-a-look-at-a-nonpartisan-map Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/