(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Arraignment of the Century is tomorrow: Here are Three Things to Watch For [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-03 If you can't do the time, don't do the crime. As arraignments go, they don’t come any bigger than the initial appearance of Donald Trump tomorrow morning in New York. To get beyond all they hype and distractions that operatives on both sides will try to create, here are what this lawyer’s thinks matter the most. Yes, a criminal defendant is always presumed non guilty until proven otherwise beyond reasonable doubt. However, criminal defendants lose some of their freedoms simply because they are charged with a serious crime. 1. The Charges. Allan Bragg’s team in Manhattan has heard from many witnesses and looked at a lot of documents. If the reportedly 30+ charges are only about “StormyGate” — campaign finance violations related to the “hush money” paid to Trump’s paramour Stormy Daniels — then I think Bragg may be in trouble from the start. However, as I expect, the charges include a lot of other misdeeds by Trump — including things he did while President, but are still within the Statute of Limitations — because remember that he explicitly refused to put his businesses in a “blind trust” while president, expect a long trial with many witnesses and many opportunities for unexpected disclosures that damage Trump. In addition, remember that the same jury will hear all the charges Bragg brings against Trump. If he charges Trump for a host of misdeeds involving many transactions that don’t involve anyone named “Stormy,” the jury will be less likely to let Trump off for any of it, nor will they believe any defense attorney that claims “there was a misunderstanding,” or “documents are being mischaracterized,” or “yes, maybe it was a crime, but someone else did it,” and the more they will believe the prosecution’s characterization of Trump as a chronic habitual law-breaker. Of course, Bragg is not throwing legal spaghetti at a metaphorical wall to see what literally “sticks.” However, the legal standard he must meet is “beyond all reasonable doubt,” and the more times you may have broken the law, the less any doubt becomes “reasonable,” and the more likely that you not only did something wrong, but you knew you were breaking the law at the time. Moreover, Trump’s tendency to consult lawyers before ignoring their advice establishes that his bad acts were intentional even more. Expect, also, that Bragg will accept a lot of testimony and documents that show how much Trump was involved in the business of the Trump Organization, and how much he did not even let his children make final decisions of his companies, not even Ivanka. Not only are Eric and Don, Jr. in for a lot of public humiliation — but Trump won’t be able to blame them for the crimes he committed. As for the photograph of Trump holding numbers over his chest, if those photos are not released, he will be receiving very special treatment, and that would be wrong. 2. The Travel Restrictions. Trump has already scheduled a speech at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night at which he will publicly respond to (denounce) his prosecution. Although I don’t think Trump is going to be denied bail and held in Riker’s Island until his trial, I do think that Judge Juan Merchan — who has already endured one Trump-related case, that one over tax fraud — will strongly consider requiring Trump to remain in New York and New Jersey (i.e., where Bedminster is) until his trial is over. In other words, do not be surprised if Trump’s big speech in Florida on Tuesday night does not happen. Although I don’t think that Governor DeSantis was trying to get Trump locked up when he announced that “Florida will not assist” Trump’s extradition, that is a good reason to not let Trump return to Florida, or travel anywhere. The States of New York and New Jersey offer plenty of open space and recreational opportunities for Trump to enjoy, and he has no compelling need to reside in Florida until he finishes answering the charges of New York state. One can also expect that Judge Merchan will require Trump to surrender his passport or passports and forbid him from traveling outside the U.S. Trump should also be required to pledge valuable properties, like Trump Tower, Bedminster, and Mar-a-Lago, as reasonable bail conditions. As for other restrictions, much may depend on what role the Secret Service promises to play in securing Trump’s availability for proceedings in this case. Although the Secret Service can make arrests, its primary duty is protect people like Trump from assailants, including investigating potential threats to federal officials. Suffice to say that, if Trump were an ordinary wealthy person with several mansions, access to personal jet aircraft and no Secret Service detail, Judge Merchan would be very wary about preventing such a defendant from leaving the U.S. and not returning. Former U.S. Army prosecutor Glenn Kirschner related what he thinks Trump should expect on Tuesday in great detail last Friday with Brian Taylor Cohen; I recommend watching it on YouTube. Some people have mentioned the U.S. Marshals; however, I have not found anything that allows U.S. Marshals to arrests fugitives from state courts. That is the purpose of extradition, and extradition is exactly what Governor DeSantis has promised not to cooperate with. Forcing Trump to remain in New York and New Jersey, two states where law enforcement are likely to cooperate with Judge Meacham’s court, is a minimal restriction on his freedom, consistent with the interests of justice. As DailyKos community member notchakotay explained last night, the simplest way to guarantee that Trump returns to Manhattan for his trial and possible sentencing is to order him to not leave New York (and I think, New Jersey). Then, if he does fly to Florida some other state, the FBI will be able to swiftly grab him and bring him to Judge Meacham’s court, and the Secret Service will have to step aside. Trump 2024: Live from Sing-Sing Prison! One factor that will probably not concern the judge is Trump’s presidential desire to continue campaigning for President. Unless Trump wants to wage an old-fashioned “Front Porch” campaign from Bedminster or Trump Tower — the first since Warren G. Harding in 1920 — “Trump 2024” may end tomorrow. 3. The Gag Order. In addition to restricting Trump from traveling around the country or even around the world, Judge Merchan can also order Trump and his family to not talk about the case, the lawyers involved, the probable witnesses for and against him, and certainly not the judge. Already, Trump’s allies like Roger Stone have decried a “gag order” as violating Trump’s First Amendment rights. However, criminal defendants, and their families and associates, are often forbidden from talking about criminal cases, largely to preserve the objectivity of potential jurors. Yes, a criminal defendant is always presumed non guilty until proven otherwise beyond reasonable doubt. However, to maintain the integrity of the legal system, criminal defendants lose some of their freedoms simply because they are charged with a serious crime. A “gag order” would not, by itself, prevent Trump from continuing to campaign for President. He can simply not mention his criminal case. However, Trump has never shown such self-restraint. Moreover, over just the last few days, he has not only attacked Alvin Bragg, but encouraged retaliation against Bragg’s wife. Trump has also publicly attacked Judge Meacham, claiming that he is a biased against him, and hand-picked (somehow) by Bragg’s team. Although some experts think that Meacham will not jail Trump for violating his orders the first time, I think he has already decided that he will keep his court orderly and keep this case inside his courtroom, and not allow Trump to mock justice as he pleases. Unlike a criminal violating a criminal law, a person that defies a court order can be kept in jail for as long as the proceeding lasts — which in Trump’s case could be 2025 — or until the judge is satisfied the miscreant will not violate court orders again. In other words, if Trump — or his family members, like Eric and Don, Jr. — violate Judge Meacham’s gag orders, Trump can expect to be forced to either remain confined for months and years, or do something he never has: Say that he is very, very sorry, and that he won’t do it again. In other words, in the likely event that Judge Meacham orders Trump to not talk about the case, read the wording of that order carefully, to see what Trump and his family can or cannot do. His order is sure to be narrowly-tailored to allow Trump to continue to campaign and be a public figure; on the other hand, I expect that the order will be loose enough to prevent Trump and his family from denouncing the legal system, and anyone in it, from Supreme Court justices to the cop on the beat, just to make sure that Trump does not say “in code” what he cannot say directly. I hope you enjoy the Arraignment of the Century as much as I will! — “Indictment Season” is on! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/3/2161757/-The-Arraignment-of-the-Century-tomorrow-Here-are-Three-Things-to-Watch-For Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/