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Party switch set to give North Carolina GOP a supermajority, which may lead to abortion ban and more [1]

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Date: 2023-04-04  

Last week just two days after a mass shooting in Nashville made national headlines, Cotham and two other Democrats missed a vote where their absences enabled Republicans to override Cooper's veto of a bill that repealed a century-old requirement that handgun purchasers first get a permit from their local sheriff. Cotham claimed she was getting treatment for long COVID, but some Democrats alleged that she had purposefully missed the vote to allow it to pass. Local journalist Bryan Anderson reported that this backlash seriously irked Cotham and may have been what prompted the party-switch

Unlike many previous Democratic lawmakers who became Republicans in the Tar Heel State in prior decades, Cotham changing parties makes very little sense on paper. She represents a Charlotte area district that would have backed Joe Biden 61-38 in 2020 and has been zooming leftward over the past decade like many other well-educated suburban districts.

However, Cotham may be counting on the GOP drawing her a much redder district for next year, since the new Republican majority on North Carolina's Supreme Court recently reheard a case where the prior Democratic majority in December had ruled that gerrymandering violated the state constitution. Observers widely interpreted that as a sign that the GOP justices would reverse the decision and enable a new round of extreme Republican gerrymanders for the 2024 elections (Cooper can't veto most redistricting bills regardless).

Even if Cotham does get a redder district to run in, though, she would have to survive a Republican primary first, and that's far from a given for a member who up until now has been aligned with mainstream Democrats on many major issues. Just earlier this year, Cotham had co-sponsored a bill to codify abortion rights, and her campaign website, as of Tuesday, still expressed support for a $15 minimum wage, treating health care as a right, protecting voting rights, LGBTQ equality, and more.

If Cotham starts voting consistently with Republicans, though, her switch could have profound policy consequences. Until last week's gun bill, North Carolina Republicans hadn't been able to override Cooper's vetoes for four years, which itself came about after the courts curtailed their prior gerrymanders for the 2018 elections. But Cotham's vote may make it easier for the GOP to carry out an agenda that could include banning most abortions, stripping Cooper of even more executive power, and placing more obstacles to voting ahead of 2024, when North Carolina could again be a swing state.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2023/4/4/2162084/-Party-switch-set-to-give-North-Carolina-GOP-a-supermajority-which-may-lead-to-abortion-ban-and-more

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