(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 406: zombie victory ahead [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-04 Trump claims all the Ukrainians who died in the Russian invasion would still be alive — Who Knew? Probably someone in his alternate reality. In vicious but mostly static fighting in snowy, artillery-cratered fields and ruined cities, Ukraine rebuffed a Russian offensive over the winter. Now, it is Ukraine’s turn to go on the attack. Signs are everywhere that it is coming in the next month or so. New Western weapons that could prove critical in assaults, like German Leopard 2 tanks and American mine-clearing vehicles, are arriving in Ukraine. Thousands of recruits are training in newly constituted units tailored for offensives. And the military command is holding back elite soldiers from the worst of the fighting in the east, in and around the city of Bakhmut, to throw them instead into the coming campaign. [...] The new Ukrainian campaign, when it comes, will be a test of its army’s ability to re-arm and reconstitute battalions while maintaining the motivation and maneuvering skills that gave it an edge in three previous counteroffensives. [...] The timing is critical. Success for Ukraine in the battles on the southeastern plains would drive home to the world the declining military might of Russia, ease concerns that the war has settled into a quagmire and most likely encourage Ukraine’s allies to further arm and finance Kyiv in the war. Western support has been solid so far but is not guaranteed. The U.S. budget for military assistance, for example, is now expected to run out by around September, and a senior American defense official recently described the latest tranche of artillery rounds and rockets sent to Ukraine as a “last-ditch effort.” www.nytimes.com/... The Kremlin continued efforts to (falsely) reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Tula Railway Engineering Plant and attempted to address workers’ economic concerns on April 4.[15] Putin later held a State Council Presidium meeting to discuss developing Russian industry in the face of sanctions pressure, during which he claimed that sanctions are having positive outcomes by forcing Russian firms to embrace import substitution, an argument the Kremlin has made sporadically since the 2014 annexation of Crimea.[16] Putin suggested in both meetings that Russian industry as a whole will be able to grow like the Russian agricultural sector did following the imposition of Western sanctions in 2014.[17] Putin has previously relied on the example of post-2014 Russian agricultural growth to assuage Russians of their economic anxieties but has yet to offer concrete proposals for how Russian industry would increase domestic production in a similar way.[18] ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin will likely struggle to reassure Russians about their economic concerns while also setting informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine and mobilizing a wider portion of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).[19] www.understandingwar.org/... Key Takeaways The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meet in Moscow on April 5 and 6. The Kremlin continues to attempt to employ nuclear threats to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demonstrative response to the assassination of Russian milblogger Maxim Fomin indicates that Prigozhin likely believes that the attack was in part directed at himself. The Kremlin continues to attempt to (falsely) reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences. The Kremlin is likely trying to shift more responsibility for growing Russian industry onto regional bodies to insulate itself from possible criticism about Russia’s deteriorating economic situation. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline. Russian forces continue to prepare for a rumored pending Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern direction. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russia’s ongoing spring conscription cycle is going according to plan, progressing as quickly as planned, and has completed initial military registration. Russian occupation officials denied Ukrainian reports that Russian occupation authorities are preparing evacuation plans from occupied regions of Ukraine. Belarusian state media claimed that the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) reportedly arrested two men under the suspicion of attempted terrorist attacks in Grodno. www.understandingwar.org/... x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 3 15:10 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by Oryx (13:18 including corrections) Note: Decimals decreased to reduce noise in data VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.1x losses to date ⬇ 2.8x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡ 3.3x 30-day average ⬇ 📈 https://t.co/ILLAuTQOSR pic.twitter.com/ZtLIOjOJSS — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) April 4, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued offensive operations within Bakhmut on April 4. Geolocated footage published on April 3 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced in southern Bakhmut closer to the Avangard stadium.[27] Russian milbloggers claimed on April 4 that Wagner forces captured the Bakhmut-1 railway station, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[28] Russian sources claimed that Wagner forces completely cleared the territory of the AZOM industrial complex in northern Bakhmut, advanced in northwestern Bakhmut, and continued fighting in Bakhmut city center.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner fighters completely control central Bakhmut, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim, and it is unclear how the milblogger defines “central Bakhmut.”[30] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are gradually transferring personnel to the western part of Bakhmut from elsewhere in the city and that Wagner fighters are currently probing Ukrainian defenses in the city in search of the most favorable areas for future assaults.[31] A Ukrainian withdrawal to secondary lines of defense in the city and a Wagner focus on probing attacks would likely result in a temporary decrease in Russian forces’ operational tempo within Bakhmut. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x A timelapse of the Russian advances inside Bakhmut over the past month. pic.twitter.com/4OYBYcl99N — War Mapper (@War_Mapper) April 5, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1— Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Kreminna, Nevske (20km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Serebrianska forest area (10km south of Kreminna).[23] Russian milbloggers claimed on April 3 that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near the Zhuravka gully (18km west of Kreminna) and that elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) attacked Ukrainian positions near Kuzemivka (14km northwest of Svatove).[24] A milblogger claimed on April 4 that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance near Nevske, Torske (14km west of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). Geolocated footage published on April 4 indicated a limited Ukrainian advance northeast of Verkhnokamianske (18km south of Kreminna).[25] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian conventional and mobilized forces operating in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction are using more armored vehicles and act more cautiously in ground battles than Russian personnel in other sectors of the frontline.[26] Russian forces may be attempting to conserve forces in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian forces continue to prepare for a rumored upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern direction.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 4 that Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in the Kherson and Zaporizhia directions but rather continued to build up their defensive capabilities.[47] Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated that Russian forces moved heavy equipment, infantry fighting vehicles, and ammunition from the rear in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast in the direction of Rozivka, Zaporizhia Oblast (45km northwest of Mariupol).[48] One Russian milblogger posted footage from an unspecified date and location allegedly showing Russian forces repelling a Ukrainian attack in the Zaporizhia direction.[49] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... 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