(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . A Tale of 2 Dictators [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-07 This is a story of missed opportunities and tragic outcomes. At the beginning of the 21st century, a spike in commodity prices caused by China’s explosive economic growth and the US invasion of Iraq brought an unprecedented flood of revenue to the Russian Federation. In Putin’s first two terms as President, this surge in revenue allowed Russia to pay down its foreign debts and nearly double its GDP. It was the perfect foundation to put Russia, with its wealth of human and natural resources, on the path to becoming one of the world’s economic superpowers. Putin, however, had other ideas. The rule of law, decreasing corruption, and increasing transparency are the prerequisites to economic success but would be a barrier to Putin attaining absolute power. Putin’s vision of himself as a new Tzar at the head of a reconstituted Russian empire was at odds with Russia as an integral part of the global economic order as it existed. Putin bought the loyalty of a collection of thugs and lackeys with corruption. He got rid of opponents by doing away with the rule of law. Putin squandered the great opportunity laid at his feet in his first term in a quest for absolute power. So the economic miracle stalled. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the economy of Russia was smaller than the Italian economy, by the end of this year it will likely be in worse shape than it was at its low point in the 90s. Already facing demographic collapse, the best and brightest of Russia’s young have left the country, and those that remain are being fed into the Ukrainian meat grinder. All the gains of the last 20 years were wiped out by one man’s greed and lust for power. While Putin was busy destroying Russia’s future Xi Jinping was replicating Putin’s quest for absolute power in China. Xi was elected president on 14 March 2013, in a confirmation vote by the 12th National People's Congress in Beijing. The China he was chosen to lead was in the midst of explosive economic growth and the fastest urbanization and industrialization in human history. This was enabled by the globalization and global system of free trade that the US initiated and backstopped with its massive consumer market, the US dollar, and its blue water navy which ensured the safe passage of goods globally. It was a great deal for China, maybe not so great for American workers. This arrangement put China on the path to being the world’s biggest economy in the next decade. Unfortunately for China, that system is unraveling. Globalization is over. Both parties in the US have abandoned it and European populism is following suit. This combined with China’s demographic collapse threatens to implode the Chinese economy in short order. It will require some creative thinking on the part of Chinese thought leaders to figure a way out of this precarious situation… and that’s a problem. On the path to aggregating absolute power to himself, Xi has eliminated any independent thinking in Chinese institutions. Autocrats surround themselves with sycophants and flunkies. Intelligence and independent thought are dangerous to dictators and are eliminated. Instead of a deft hand navigating dangerous waters Xi is whipping up a ethno-nationalist fervor and a very aggressive foreign policy that is belligerent not just to its most important trading partners but also to its neighbors - like Vietnam and the Philippines. His crackdown in Hong Kong has convinced Taiwan that any political merger with China would mean an end to democracy despite any guarantees. An invasion of Taiwan would likely result in the immediate collapse of the Chinese economy as the vast majority of imports and exports come to a sudden halt. But what about the grand strategic alliance between Putin and XI? Right after meeting with Putin, Xi convened a meeting with the Central Asian Republics on Russia’s southern border. An area that Putin considers to be in Russia’s rightful dominion. Putin wasn’t invited. It was a naked power grab by Xi right in the face of his new ‘strategic partner’. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea - are all joining hands with Putin and Xi. A coalition of failing, clueless autocrats who seem to be instinctually herding together to protect their power no matter the cost to their citizens. It’s really the worst possible moment for Xi to throw down the gauntlet at the forces that made the Chinese economy such a smashing success. The US essentially can just sit back and watch China implode over the next decade if that is the route Xi chooses. There is a cautionary tale here. Imagine the future of the USA in the hands of an autocratic Trump and his MAGA numbskulls? The old order is crumbling and there will be a new economic and trade regime that is as yet not known. It will require intelligence and leadership to navigate some dangerous and volatile times. What has damned Russia and China is its leadership. They have the human resources to be successful, but they will never get the chance to mine those resources as it's a threat to the autocrats and their corrupt minions. 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