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UPDATED: That security leak keeps getting bigger - and worse [1]

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Date: 2023-04-08  

SEE UPDATE BELOW

The Pentagon and the Biden administration is trying to get a handle on some critical documents that have been leaked to social media. I posted about the original story from The NY Times report which dealt with the discovery that documents concerning classified US and NATO info on Ukraine’s military planning and status of troops, arms, etc. from about 5 weeks ago had turned up on the internet.

More troubling was the assessment that while the source documents were determined to be classified material, a number of them had been modified in ways that suggest a disinformation campaign. Mark Sumner wrote up the story on April 7 in a Ukraine update, asking if this could seriously derail spring offensive plans by Ukraine, looking at the whole issue. To quote in part:

This shows someone in an argument over Ukrainian and Russian positions within the last two weeks. The argument isn’t too unusual, except that the someone seems to have very precise values for the number of Ukrainian troops in each location—and some pretty official-looking images that seem to have come directly from military sources. Those images look official because it appears that they are. Widespread reporting, including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times indicates that these images are taken from a classified presentation involving NATO officials. The images from 4Chan (which are much larger and more detailed in the originals) are part of a set of six that circulated on pro-Russian channels on Telegram. However, it looks like these 4Chan posts were the first appearance. The images don’t just include information about the current status of operations in Ukraine, they also include details of a supposed Ukrainian counteroffensive. It’s unclear if this information reflects U.S. or NATO evaluation of Ukrainian plans, of if these are plans that originated in the West as a suggestion to Ukraine. As The Wall Street Journal notes: The photographs that appear to be of printed presentation slides and maps posted online don’t show the planned routes and timelines for the Ukrainian offensive, but they do contain information that, if true, could be of value on the composition and readiness of the new military units that Kyiv and its allies are preparing and equipping for the spring campaign.

You had better believe there’s a lot of scrambling going on to find out what’s out there, how much of it is actual classified info and how much is disinfo, while trying to figure out where it came from originally and who is the person or persons who leaked it. But wait — there's more (and even more in an update today).

From The NY Times APRIL 7, 2023:

New Batch of Classified Documents Appears on Social Media Sites

Secret documents that appear to detail American national security secrets on Ukraine, the Middle East and China have surfaced online.

WASHINGTON — A new batch of classified documents that appear to detail American national security secrets from Ukraine to the Middle East to China surfaced on social media sites on Friday, alarming the Pentagon and adding turmoil to a situation that seemed to have caught the Biden administration off guard. The scale of the leak — analysts say more than 100 documents may have been obtained — along with the sensitivity of the documents themselves, could be hugely damaging, U.S. officials said. A senior intelligence official called the leak “a nightmare for the Five Eyes,” in a reference to the United States, Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, the so-called Five Eyes nations that broadly share intelligence. The latest documents were found on Twitter and other sites on Friday, a day after senior Biden administration officials said they were investigating a potential leak of classified Ukrainian war plans, include an alarming assessment of Ukraine’s faltering air defense capabilities. One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.

emphasis added

Technology has made spreading information far easier than it used to be. Every smartphone with a camera is a potential spy tool, one that can capture information quickly and transmit it. Unlike the days of the Pentagon Papers, it's no longer necessary to enlist a major news organization to disseminate information broadly; the worldwide web can spread it… worldwide with a few clicks and uploads. Information in digital formats is far more easy to copy and spread than dead-tree documents.

There’s also the sheer volume of information that can be a problem when it’s not easy to tell how much of it is accurate and how much is intended to mislead. Russian sources are reported to be calling the leak an effort to attack Russian morale for example, since it includes much higher Russian casualty figures than Moscow will admit to.

It’s a nightmare for all of the security agencies that have access to the information in question. Where did it leak from, who screwed up, and who can be trusted? Or is it a deliberate disinformation campaign — and who is it aimed at?

A number of the commenters here at Daily Kos have cited how deliberate leaks in the past have been used to trick enemies into preparing for attacks that never came, or came in completely different places than they were expecting. Two classic science fiction works by Eric Frank Russell give a humorous look at how effective information warfare can be.

According to the link, Russell’s own bio may be bit of disinformation; one story is that he served in the RAF in WW2; the other that he was in military intelligence working on ways to sabotage the German war effort. His novel “Wasp” details how a lone agent behind the lines in an interstellar conflict has an all out-of-scale effect on the enemy by making them believe they are dealing with a much larger underground organization. His solo efforts tie up huge amounts of critical resources and boost official paranoia.

“Next of Kin” also published as “The Space Willies” tells the tale of a space scout captured deep within enemy territory, who is able to convince his alien captors, who have never dealt with humans before, that humans all partner with non-corporeal symbiotes who are able to gather information and carry out sabotage. In dealing with the unknown, nothing can be dismissed out of hand — and as the space scout knows: “Baloney baffles brains.”

In any case, back in the real world and the latest NY Times report:

In Ukraine, Lt. Col. Yurii Bereza, a battalion commander with Ukraine’s National Guard whose forces have fought in the country’s east in recent months, shrugged off news of the leak. He noted that information warfare had become so intense that “we can no longer determine where is the truth and where is the lie.” “We are at that stage of the war when the information war is sometimes even more important than the direct physical clashes at the front,” Colonel Bereza said.

A number of commenters here at Daily Kos have also engaged in speculation that Trumpers within the government might be responsible for the leak in an effort to embarrass the Biden administration and cripple support for Ukraine.

Given the amount of penetration by Russian agents into the GOP and their disinformation campaigns on social media, and Trump’s admiration/subservience of/to Putin, it’s not a possibility that can be readily dismissed. While there’s no evidence to date of such actions by Trump supporters, the fact that it seems plausible is damaging in its own right.

Further, it’s unlikely to come out soon even if confirmed, given the Johnson-Nixon precedent. The more recent revelations about Reagan’s campaign and Iran also suggest it could be a long time — if ever — before the news would come out.

And then there’s this:

Note that while Trump would not have had access to the material just leaked, what DID he have, and did we get all of it back? The jury is still out on that question.

Maxim 53: The intel you've got is never the intel you want 2015-02-22

Well, that didn't take long. Since the Friday report, it looks like The NY Times has been digging into the leaked information.

From The NY Times April 8, 2023:

The information, exposed on social media sites, also shows that U.S. intelligence services are eavesdropping on important allies.

WASHINGTON — A trove of leaked Pentagon documents reveals how deeply Russia’s security and intelligence services have been penetrated by the United States, demonstrating Washington’s ability to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and providing an assessment of the strength of Moscow’s war machine. The documents paint a portrait of a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and of a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself. The documents lay bare the American assessment of a Ukrainian military that is also in dire straits. The documents, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outline critical shortages of air defense munitions and discuss the gains being made by Russian troops around the eastern city of Bakhmut. The intelligence reports show that the United States also appears to be spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington’s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine’s fighting strategies. The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. Intelligence collection is often difficult and sometimes wrong, but the trove of documents offers perhaps the most complete picture yet of the inner workings of the largest land war in Europe in decades.

The news keeps getting worse. The leaked material lets Russia know just how badly its assorted agencies have been penetrated, it’s going to seriously undermine the confidence our allies have in our ability to keep secret anything they share with us — as well as showing we’ve been spying on them. It undermines Ukraine. Further, the difficulty of investigating the leak is compounded by the potential number of sources.

One senior U.S. official called the leak “a massive intelligence breach,” made worse because it lays out to Russia just how deep American intelligence operatives have managed to get into the Russian military apparatus. Officials within the U.S. government with security clearance often receive such documents through daily emails, one official said, and those emails might then be automatically forwarded to other people. Another senior U.S. official said tracking down the original source of the leak could be difficult because hundreds, if not thousands, of military and other U.S. government officials have the security clearances needed to gain access to the documents. The official said that the Pentagon had instituted procedures in the past few days to “lock down” the distribution of highly sensitive briefing documents. The documents posted online were photographs of folded papers, some with images of a magazine behind them, information that may help investigators.

This is some serious stuff going down.

The number of reporters working on this at The NY Times gives an idea of how much attention this story is getting, deservedly.

Natalia Yermak and Glenn Thrush contributed reporting. Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt reported from Washington, Thomas Gibbons-Neff from London and Michael Schwirtz from Lviv, Ukraine. Helene Cooper is a Pentagon correspondent. She was previously an editor, diplomatic correspondent and White House correspondent, and was part of the team awarded the 2015 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting, for its coverage of the Ebola epidemic. @helenecooper Julian E. Barnes is a national security reporter based in Washington, covering the intelligence agencies. Before joining The Times in 2018, he wrote about security matters for The Wall Street Journal. @julianbarnes • Facebook Eric Schmitt is a senior writer who has traveled the world covering terrorism and national security. He was also the Pentagon correspondent. A member of the Times staff since 1983, he has shared four Pulitzer Prizes. @EricSchmittNYT Thomas Gibbons-Neff is a Ukraine correspondent and a former Marine infantryman. @tmgneff Michael Schwirtz is an investigative reporter with the International desk. With The Times since 2006, he previously covered the countries of the former Soviet Union from Moscow and was a lead reporter on a team that won the 2020 Pulitzer Prize for articles about Russian intelligence operations. @mschwirtz • Facebook

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