(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Update: Leaked secret documents suggests Ukrainian air defenses are in trouble [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-10 On a slide surveying Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, the document (prepared sometime in late February) claimed that Ukraine had nearly depleted its stock of air defense missiles, with just 192 MANPADS remaining (shoulder-fired anti-air missiles), as well as 10 IRIS-T Missiles, and two Soviet-era Buk Launcher missiles. The report further claimed that Ukraine has only 421 S-300 missiles left, and was using around 180 per month. In all, the report painted a dire picture of Ukraine’s remaining air defense stock, which would be so depleted by late March that Russia would be able to increase the use of its sidelined air force. Ukraine has claimed the leaked documents are misinformation and fiction, but few are left doubting their authenticity (beyond a few crudely altered versions floating around on Russian Telegram). In a way, this isn’t surprising. While many clamor for more tanks, infantry vehicles, and aircraft, Ukraine has been laser-focused on pleading for more air defense systems. It shouldn’t be surprising that their Soviet-era gear would be running dry over a year into the war. While Russia has sidelined most of its air force out of fear, those air defense systems have been busy shooting down surveillance and suicide drones. This is the reason that Ukraine opted for billion-dollar Patriot air defense systems, rather than apply that budgeted money toward other desperately needed weapons systems. Any Ukrainian offensive is doomed if Russia can finally deploy its air force with impunity. BUK air defense system There are three Patriot systems either in Ukraine, or imminently en route. They are direct replacements to those S-300 systems quickly running out of ammo, and superior in every possible way. And those S-300s might have some extended life, as well. Greece has expressed willingness to transfer a system they accidentally acquired, and Bulgaria finally opened itself up to supplying Ukraine militarily in December. At the time, they explicitly excluded S-300 missiles from their aid, but counties evolve over time. Meanwhile, those BUKs might be running out of regular ammunition, but plucky Ukrainian engineers figured out how to fire American-built Sea Sparrow missiles from them. And there is a whole slew of Western air defense systems flooding into the country later this year from the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe. But the biggest sign that the worst fears detailed in the report were overwrought? It is now April 10, two weeks after Ukraine was supposed to be fully depleted, and the Russian air force doesn’t have anything approximating air superiority. In fact, Ukraine is still shooting down Russian air craft: x #Ukraine: A low-flying Russian aircraft, apparently a Su-25 attack jet, was shot down by Ukrainian forces near Marinka, #Donetsk Oblast. From the footage, it appears that the pilot managed to eject. pic.twitter.com/49b0bmixyP — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 7, 2023 Ukraine has also claimed several more helicopters shot down this month, including two today. None of those claims are backed up by good video, unless you want to take cheering Ukrainians at their word: x Russian soldiers shot down a helicopter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a portable anti-aircraft missile system "Verba", at a distance of 5 km. The soldiers were waiting in ambush for the enemy military transport Mi-8, hidden in the ruins of the industrial zone. pic.twitter.com/at3j4SpYzK — Spriter (@Spriter99880) April 1, 2023 A late-February report would take into account the burn rate caused by Russia’s bi-weekly large-scale drone and rocket attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure. We haven’t seen any of those for over a month now as Russia likely ran dry of their own supplies. As a result, Ukraine would be able to husband their own resources. Drones are deadly against vehicles and personnel. The Israelis are working on a cool solution: x Camouflage developed by the Israeli company Fibrotex, masking fighters both from the naked eye and from a thermal imager at close range - Ai upscaled 150% + dehalo + compression reverse + 30 to 60 FPS https://t.co/R43CpXpjZG pic.twitter.com/OQIaVU4jEu — Dariusz Zawadzki (@Military_oO) April 1, 2023 x An updated thread on Russia’s fortifications in occupied Ukraine. This interactive map shows the extent of their construction and links each point to satellite imagery: https://t.co/km9lFOldbe (1/8) pic.twitter.com/zgmY1Of52Q — Brady Africk (@bradyafr) April 9, 2023 Yesterday, Russia blew a bridge connecting Ukraine to Russia’s Bryansk Oblast: x Video reportedly of a Russian Kh-29TD missile strike from a Su-34 fighter-bomber on a bridge in Chernihiv Oblast. Evgeny Poddubny claims the strike was designed to hinder Ukrainian GUR operations in Bryansk.https://t.co/DA9mdmhHiYhttps://t.co/Q93yreZ5LPhttps://t.co/8lVypsQq5w pic.twitter.com/4oXPYFCqQs — Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 9, 2023 Just like those fortifications on the Russian side of the border throughout northern Ukraine, blowing this bridge is absurd theater. Ukraine is not invading Russia anytime soon, and likely never. I’m more surprised that Ukraine left that bridge standing, as they’ve blown bridges all around that shared border to prevent Russian (or Belorussian) incursions. The updated map of Russian trenches still reveals a significant oddity: There are no defenses between Svatove and Starobilsk, the logistical hub of Russia’s entire war effort in northeastern Ukraine. Compare to Russia’s defenses heading down toward Melitopol. It’s clear that Russia expects Ukraine to attack south. Liberating Melitopol would sever Russia’s prized “land bridge” to Crimea, as well as threaten Russia’s holdings on the Azov Sea (Mariupol and Berdyansk). They clearly value that more than any threat Ukraine might make to Luhansk oblast in Ukraine’s northeast. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/10/2163176/-Ukraine-Update-Leaked-secret-documents-suggests-Ukrainian-air-defenses-are-in-trouble Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/