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MT-Sen: 538 Does The Math Explaining Why The MT GOP's Plan To Screw Sen. Tester (D) Might Be A Bust [1]

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Date: 2023-04-11  

Sen. Jon Tester (D. MT)

So in case you didn’t know, the Montana GOP is pushing a new plan to exclusively fuck over U.S. Senator Jon Tester (D. MT):

x It’s really not just Tennessee. https://t.co/jBHThvMK0i — Brady PAC (@Brady_PAC) April 8, 2023 Republican state lawmakers in Montana are advancing legislation that would alter next year’s U.S. Senate primary in an apparent bid to thwart the re-election of Sen. Jon Tester, one of several Democrats on the ballot in GOP-leaning states. The measure would allow the top two candidates in the primary, no matter their party, to win slots on the 2024 general election ballot. It’s now before House lawmakers after passing in the Senate by a 27-23 vote on Tuesday. Seven Republicans joined all of the chamber’s Democrats in voting against the measure. In January Tester announced his bid for a fourth term in a seat that Republicans are eager to recapture after more than two decades. He’s the last remaining Democrat to hold a statewide political office in Montana after the GOP dominated recent elections. Democrats in the U.S. Senate hold a 51-49 majority heading into the election. They will be defending 23 seats, including three held by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans will be defending just 10 seats. “I think we all know what this is about,” Senate Minority Leader Pat Flowers said Monday as Montana lawmakers debated whether to alter the primary. “This is just brazen partisanship targeting a single race. This isn’t fair. This isn’t what Montanans want. They don’t want one-party rule, they want us to have fair elections and this bill is not that.”

Here’s a little more info:

By allowing only two candidates to advance, it could keep third parties off the general election ballot. Past races for Tester’s seat were close enough that the absence of third party candidates hypothetically could have tipped the balance in favor of Republicans. “I think the only reason you need to be scared of it is if you don’t think your guy can win,” said Republican Sen. Carl Glimm. The primary format for other offices, including election to the U.S. House, would not be changed. If the bill passes, it would only affect the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The sponsor, Republican Sen. Greg Hertz, said that would give the 2025 legislature the opportunity to “review the results of this election. How did it work? How did our voters like it?” and whether the top-two primary should be expanded to other races.

And Montana Democrats believe they know who the main culprit is behind this bull shit plan:

Multiple Montana Democrats told The Hill that they believe the legislative effort is the brainchild of Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). They say there was zero chatter surrounding this push throughout most of the legislative session, which lasts 90 working days and runs from January until May, until shortly before the bill hit the floor last week. “This has all the feels of the D.C. apparatus coming in and saying, ‘Pass this legislation,’” said Jayson O’Neill, a Montana-based Democratic operative who served as an aide to former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D). “Surely [the Montana legislature] didn’t come up with this on their own.” “It seems like a Hail Mary throw. … Throw it deep and see if they can get a catch,” O’Neill continued. “They’re so desperate to find that magic pathway to electoral success that they’re willing to throw anything against the wall and see if it sticks.” The first Montana-based Democratic operative added that the only whispers going around in recent memory related to changing the primary structure were by liberal groups. “Obviously Daines was calling people and trying to make this happen,” the operative said. “I’ve never seen something move so quickly in the state legislature. … Everyone got on board very quickly. The only way that happens is D.C. coordination.”

And here’s some more evidence that this plan is meant to help boost one of Tester’s opponents:

This week, Montana Republicans are seeking to limit third-party bids with a bill that creates a “top two” jungle primary— albeit only for Tester’s 2024 race. In theory, it would help the GOP head off a spoiler effect that helped Tester win reelection in 2012, when a libertarian siphoned votes from the Republican candidate. But in 2018, Tester surpassed 50 percent against Republican Matt Rosendale, who’s now a House member; the libertarian candidate that year received just under 3 percent. The Montana bill’s chief sponsor, Rosendale backer and state Sen. Greg Hertz (R), sought to make all races subject to a “top two” system but faced statewide resistance. Hertz said Chuck Denowh, a Montana lobbyist who lists finance work for both Daines and Rosendale on his LinkedIn page, then offered to help. They eventually settled on a bill specific to Tester’s race. “I mean, how much more obvious can you be?” asked GOP state Sen. Brad Molnar, who voted against the Tester-specific plan. He warned the bill could outrage Libertarians and guessed that the RNC, which has not “had a good idea in 20 years,” was probably behind it. Hertz, however, said he didn’t talk to Daines or the NRSC about the effort and was unaware if Denowh advocated for it on behalf of any particular client. Denowh did not respond to a request for comment. “I don’t know if it would help them or hurt [Republicans],” added Hertz. “My main goal is just to make sure that the person who wins the U.S. Senate race in Montana has more than a majority.”

This whole blatant rat fucking plan might sound like a slam dunk for the GOP. But Nathaniel Radich from FiveThirtyEight points out that blaming the Libertarian candidates for helping Tester win all three of his races is just an a very stupid excuse to try this bull shit:

x Republicans are trying to switch to a top-two primary in Montana to hurt Jon Tester's chances in #MTsen. So I looked back at whether the system would have cost Tester the 2006, 2012, or 2018 elections. https://t.co/bQlZZUbJqM — Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) April 10, 2023 The closest call would’ve been in Tester’s first victory, in 2006. That year, Tester defeated Republican then-Sen. Conrad Burns by 3,562 votes, while Libertarian Stan Jones took 10,377 votes. Mathematically, Burns could have won if Jones had not been in the race and Jones’s supporters had broken for Burns by a margin of at least 67 percent to 34 percent. However, that assumes that all those Libertarians still would have voted if Jones hadn’t been on the ballot. In other elections, a majority of third-party voters have told exit pollsters that they wouldn’t have voted at all if their only choices had been a Democrat and a Republican. And Jones was critical of Democrats and Republicans, so many of his votes could’ve been protest votes cast by people who couldn’t stomach either of the major candidates. In the hypothetical scenario where Jones didn’t run and some of his supporters stayed home, Burns would have needed to win an even larger share of Jones’s remaining voters in order to net 3,563 votes. Let’s dive into the math. If only 90 percent of Jones’s supporters had turned out (9,339 voters), Burns would have needed to win them 6,451 to 2,888 (69 percent to 31 percent). And if only 50 percent of Jones’s supporters had turned out (5,189 voters), Burns would have needed to win them 4,376 to 813 (84 percent to 16 percent). If any significant share of Jones’s voters had stayed home, Burns would have needed to win the remainder by a punishing margin to defeat Tester. It wouldn’t have been impossible, but it would have been unlikely. Next, let’s examine Tester’s first reelection campaign in 2012. Even though a liberal outside group spent $500,000 on ads calling Libertarian Dan Cox the race’s “real conservative” in an attempt to undermine GOP support, it’s doubtful that this threw the election to Tester. Tester defeated Republican then-Rep. Denny Rehberg by 18,072 votes as Cox received 31,892 votes. Therefore, if Cox hadn’t been on the ballot and every Cox supporter had still voted, Rehberg would have needed to win them by a landslide margin: at least 78 percent to 22 percent. And if turnout among Cox supporters had been any lower than 57 percent, it would have been mathematically impossible for Rehberg to catch Tester using Cox voters, even if every single one voted for him. Finally, we know that in 2018, a Libertarian candidate didn’t cost Republicans the election because Tester got a majority of the votes cast in the race that year. Even if GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale had gotten all of Libertarian Rick Breckenridge’s votes, it still would have been 3,368 votes shy of Tester’s total.

Tester has always been smart enough to know that he can’t rely on Libertarian candidates to bail him out. It’s all about turnout and that’s why he’s been able to win re-election each time. It remains to be seen if this undemocratic, bull shit power move will actually pass. But legal scholars believe this new rule violates the state constitution. Here’s a great thread to make that case:

x There is a plausible argument that SB 566 could violate the Montana Constitution.



I think that, on balance, SB 566 is probably constitutional, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a challenge to its legality under the state constitution. https://t.co/YMpx7o9JlR — Quinn Yeargain (the ISLT is ahistorical garbage) (@yeargain) April 4, 2023

Either way, the GOP is gunning to take out Tester and we need to be ready to fight back. Click here to donate and get involved with Tester’s re-election campaign.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/11/2163133/-MT-Sen-538-Does-The-Math-Explaining-Why-The-MT-GOP-s-Plan-To-Screw-Sen-Tester-D-Might-Be-A-Bust

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