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The math behind how ALL 5 (in)justices who signed onto Dobbs were confirmed by minority rule [1]

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Date: 2023-04-11  

An excel spreadsheet with the calculations

Essentially, this excel sheet shows mathematical calculations regarding the total population represented by Senators voting for and against each of the current justices on SCOTUS based on the preceding contemporary decennial censuses. As you can see, all 5 (in)justices who signed on to the Dobbs opinion were confirmed despite the fact that more people were represented by Senators who opposed them to varying degrees. This goes off of the face value positions regarding how Senators voted, and not how they may have voted if things got scrambled by a close vote where Senators may have voted differently in case they were the deciding vote for the record. However, in the event of nonvoting Senators due to being absent or otherwise, their position is counted based on their known position on the nominee.

The methodology was that using the preceding contemporary decennial census numbers of each states population, to add up the populations of each state with both Senators voting the same way to either the yes side or the no side (splitting populations of states with 1 Senator voting each way in half) and then dividing the total by the nations total population across the 50 states per said census to calculate a percentage. For all 5 (in)justices who signed onto the Dobbs ruling, the calculated percentage was less than 50%, meaning that more of the nations population at the time lived in states opposed to the nomination than in state supportive of the nomination.

Thomas was calculated based on the 1990 census. Roberts, Alito, Sotomayor, and Kagan were calculated based on the 2000 census. Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett were calculated based on the 2010 census. Jackson was calculated based on the 2020 census.

A situation where a minority of the nations population can unilaterally push their preferred policy outcomes on the majority is not how a country should operate. In fact, outright dictatorships essentially operate on an extreme level of minority rule themselves.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/11/2163454/-The-math-behind-how-ALL-5-in-justices-who-signed-onto-Dobbs-were-confirmed-by-minority-rule

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