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Peru is experiencing an 'El Niño Costero.' [1]

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Date: 2023-04-12  

The map above shows sea surface temperature anomalies on April 4, 2023. Surface waters were roughly 6°C (10.8°F) warmer than usual offshore of Peru for that date, according to data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project. MUR SST blends measurements of sea surface temperatures from multiple NASA, NOAA, and international satellites, as well as ship and buoy observations. (Scientists also use instruments floating within the sea to project underwater temperatures.)

With global sea surface temperatures breaking heat records, the fears over an El Nino have many worried about another record-breaking worldwide heat event.

El Nino has already arrived off the coasts of Peru, Ecuador, and parts of Columbia and Brazil in South America. Peru and Ecuador are experiencing 2.9 Celsius, which other parts of the world may soon experience.

Models suggest that Earth will pass 1.5 Celsius in September. Currently, we are in the neutral phase of the ENSO.

With a super El Nino looming and more heat rising to the surface from the ocean, and the loss of the sulfur masking effect from shipping, we should brace ourselves for adverse impacts, particularly in agriculture and food production.

x Update on the El Niño Costero unfolding off the coast of Peru & Ecuador: sea surface temperatures are locally 5-7˚C above average! 🔥



Marine heatwave conditions remain widespread.



The daily Niño 1+2 Index is +2.99˚C - the only time it was higher in April was in 1998 & 1983. pic.twitter.com/7yEmLI9RKx — Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) April 11, 2023

From NASA:

In recent years, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have been abnormally low—about 0.5. to 1.0°C lower than average. However, this prolonged “triple dip” La Niña came to an end in February 2023 as shifting winds halted the upwelling of cool water offshore of Peru and Ecuador. As the influx of cool water slowed in March and April 2023, Pacific Ocean surface temperatures soared several degrees above normal in a zone that extended up to a few hundred kilometers westward from the South American coast. The changes have been large enough that Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) has said the area is now experiencing a coastal El Niño. The unusually warm waters have played a role in energizing intense rainfall onshore, with northern Peru, Ecuador, and parts of western Brazil receiving frequent heavy rains since mid-March. The rains became especially intense after the rising ocean temperatures helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Yaku, which pumped even more rain into the normally dry region. The storm, the first tropical cyclone to hit the area in decades, was disorganized and lacked an eye, but it dropped record amounts of rain in semi-arid northern Peru on March 9, 2023. Pacasmayo received 13.7 centimeters of rain in a 24-hour period, and Chiclayo saw 8.7 centimeters. The warm sea surface temperatures coincided with the part of the year when Peru normally sees its highest water temperatures offshore, explained René Garreaud, an environmental scientist at the University of Chile. This pushed sea surface temperatures above 27°C (80°F), speeding evaporation, making the air more humid, and fueling the formation of tall convective clouds that produce downpours and thunderstorms. The situation is similar to 2017, the last time a coastal El Niño flooded the area with rain.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/12/2163604/-Peru-is-experiencing-an-El-Ni-o-Costero

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