(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 415: Stalemates and ceasefires are an adversary’s victory [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-13 Tucker Carlson Claims ‘American Soldiers Are Fighting Russian Soldiers’ After Fox News Reports That’s Not Actually Happening The FBI has arrested a 21-year-old air national guardsman in Massachusetts suspected of being responsible for the leak of US classified defence documents that laid bare military secrets in Ukraine and upset Washingon’s relations with key allies. Jack Teixeira could be facing charges under the Espionage Act. Each charge under the act can carry an up to 10-year prison term, and prosecutors could treat each leaked document as a separate count in his indictment. UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi warned on Thursday that “we are living on borrowed time” following two recent landmine explosions near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly expressed fears over the safety of the plant, which is Europe’s largest atomic power station. Ukraine’s armed forces have said Russian troops are attempting to surround the embattled city of Bakhmut from the north and the south. “ Every day in Bakhmut area, the enemy makes 40 to 50 offensive and assault attempts, launches more than 500 strikes using the entire range of available weapons,” said Brig Gen Oleksiy Hromov, deputy chief of the Ukrainian armed forces general staff’s main operational department. Russia’s defence ministry claimed its troops had already surrounded Bakhmut, but Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, said it was “too early” to say. Prigozhin, whose forces have spearheaded much of the fighting for the embattled city, was responding to a statement by the Russian defence ministry that said Moscow’s forces were “blocking” Ukrainian forces from getting in or out of Bakhmut. Fragmentation of the global economy into rival trading blocs runs the risk of prompting a new cold war, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said a combination of the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and shortcomings with globalisation had led to a potentially dangerous splintering. Serbia never sold weapons or ammunition to Ukraine or Russia, president Aleksandar Vučić has insisted, following a leaked secret Pentagon report that said Serbia had pledged to send arms to Kyiv or had sent them already. Vučić said he was “quite certain” that Serbian ammunition would appear “on one side or the other in the battlefield” in Ukraine, after having been exported to Turkey, Spain or the Czech Republic. Russia’s prosecutor general said it had opened an investigation into a video showing Russian soldiers apparently beheading a Ukrainian prisoner of war lying on the ground. It comes a day after president Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged international leaders to act, saying the world could not ignore the “evil” footage, which circulated on Telegram, Twitter and other social media channels, causing revulsion among Ukrainians. Norway will expel 15 Russian embassy officials who it said were intelligence officers operating under the cover of diplomatic positions. Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition leader, is grappling with a mystery ailment in jail that could be some sort of slow-acting poison, and has lost 8kg in weight in just over two weeks , his spokesperson Kira Yarmysh has said. “We do not exclude that at this very time Alexei Navalny is being slowly poisoned, being killed slowly so that it attracts less attention,” Yarmysh said in a post on Twitter. “He is being held in a punishment cell with acute pain without medical help,” she said. The European Union has added Russia’s Wagner group to its sanctions list for “actively participating in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine”. The mercenary group had already been placed on another EU sanctions list in February for violating human rights and “destabilising” countries in Africa. Ukraine’s state-owned gas company Naftogaz on Thursday said Russia has been ordered by an arbitration court in The Hague to pay $5bn (£4bn / €4.5bn) in compensation for unlawfully expropriating its assets in Crimea, which the Russian Federation claimed to annex in 2014. All Ukrainian cities and Crimea must be part of Ukraine again and a real peace will come by restoring the country’s borders , foreign minister Dmitro Kuleba has said on Thursday. “There is no difference between...any Ukrainian city, they all must and will be Ukraine again,” he said, speaking via a video link at a Black Sea security conference in Bucharest. The UK’s Ministry of Defence has awarded £650m to manufacturers working on its Tempest fighter jet, in the latest sign that the UK is pushing forward with the aim of producing the aircraft by 2035. The Tempest programme is seen as a key part of the UK’s plans for defence spending and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put pressure on the government to increaseits investment. www.theguardian.com/… The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed to have identified the individuals allegedly responsible for assassinating milblogger Maxim Fomin (known under the alias Vladlen Tatarsky) on April 13.[15] The FSB claimed that alleged Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) agents Darya Trepova and Yuriy Denisov worked with Russian Anti-Corruption Foundation associates Leonid Volkov and Ivan Zhadanov — both located abroad — to track Fomin for months and eventually assassinate him.[16] The FSB stated that it added Denisov to the international wanted list after he fled Russia.[17] Anti-Corruption Foundation Director Ivan Zhandov claimed on April 13 that the FSB released this version of events to justify extending Anti-Corruption Foundation founder and Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s prison sentence.[18] Key Takeaways A senior Ukrainian official warned that Russia can reconstitute itself as a serious threat to Ukraine in the long run despite facing severe force generation problems at this time. The Kremlin has not yet undertaken the necessary reorganization of its war effort to effectively leverage economies of scale to support large Russian force generation. Ukrainian assessments confirm ISW’s longstanding assessment that Russia cannot conduct multiple offensive operations simultaneously at this time. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly personally approved the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich. The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) on April 13 identified the individuals allegedly responsible for assassinating milblogger Maxim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky). Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. Russian forces continue to reinforce and strengthen their positions in southern Ukraine in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters continue to feud with St. Petersburg authorities and advertising companies allegedly obstructing Wagner Group recruitment efforts. Wagner Group are reportedly training Ukrainian children to use weapons as part of the Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement (Yunarmiya) in occupied Ukraine. www.understandingwar.org/... x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 13 Equipment losses since start of war (in USD): $28.1B (exclude special equipment) DEVELOPMENT: $982.0M in the last 30 days ⬇ $20.1M reported today ⬆ Today's losses mainly anti-aircraft systems, APVs & artillery 📈 https://t.co/XUjorKFJtM pic.twitter.com/pCMAGxVOSl — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) April 13, 2023 Finnish Yle news reports on April 12 that the discussion about the transfer of F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets abroad is "currently irrelevant." The country's Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen has said that the fighters will be used by the Finnish Armed Forces over the next few years, after which their working life of about three decades will be over. He said this was not the right time for a discussion about the possible transfer of the aircraft to Ukraine, adding that Finland’s response had been conveyed to Kyiv last week. Ukraine has submitted a request for trilateral negotiations between Kyiv, Washington, and Helsinki to discuss the transfer of F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets from Finland, according to sources cited by Helsingin Sanomat on March 23. The question of Finland providing Ukraine with decommissioned F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets arose following Prime Minister Sanna Marin's visit to Kyiv on March 10. During her visit, Marin said Finland would consider the idea. Finland's arsenal of Hornets is set to be decommissioned between 2025 and 2031. Critics argue that allies’ reluctance to supply F-16, Typhoon, and Dassault fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine will prevent Kyiv from launching a successful counteroffensive and liberating the rest of Ukrainian territory. news.yahoo.com/... x Remotely controlled VBIEDs (RC-VBIEDs) are more often used by groups that aren’t as ideologically extreme as AQ/IS, which tracks with the statement by this group that they ”don’t do martyrdom operations”. For more on the topic: https://t.co/QzU2jemY49 pic.twitter.com/SDR0RZGpUo — Hugo Kaaman (@HKaaman) January 23, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 13. Geolocated footage published on April 12 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced south of Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[19] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bilohorivka on April 13.[20] Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov reported that Russian forces deployed unspecified motorized rifle units, BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) Special Forces, and additional reconnaissance equipment to the Kreminna area, where a lack of rotations is reportedly leading to poor morale among Russian personnel.[21] Hromov reported that Russian forces continued attempts to push Ukrainian forces to positions on the west bank of the Zherebets River near Torske (14km west of Kreminna) and Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).[22] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also continued offensive operations near Yampolivka (16km west of Kreminna) and Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), and that Ukrainian forces conducted a partially successful counterattack near Kryvoshyivka (11km northwest of Svatove) aiming to take control over a section of the N26 highway.[23] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in Bakhmut on April 13. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced further west into central Bakhmut and made marginal advances in southern and southwestern Bakhmut.[25] Two prominent Russian milbloggers posted footage of themselves reportedly in central Bakhmut, signaling possible further Wagner Group advances in the city.[26] Russian sources claimed that Wagner forces seized an agricultural lyceum, a rail station, and a grain elevator in northern Bakhmut.[27] Advisor to Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head, Yan Gagin, claimed that Wagner Group forces are close to encircling Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied Gagin’s claim.[28] Prigozhin stated that Ukrainian forces continue to defend Bakhmut and provision and reinforce their forces within the city.[29] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks in Bakhmut, northwest of Bakhmut near Khromove (2km west) and Bohdanivka (6km northwest), and southwest of Bakhmut near Predtechyne (13km southwest).[30] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian Airborne (VDV) have assumed positions on Wagner’s northern flank near Vasyukivka (15km north of Bakhmut).[31] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian forces continue to reinforce and strengthen their positions in southern Ukraine in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov reported on April 13 that Russian forces have reinforced unspecified areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts to hinder potential Ukrainian advances.[37] The Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Administration reported on April 13 that Russian forces continue to build fortifications and mine areas along the front line in Zaporizhia Oblast.[38] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces continued reconnaissance-in-force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast on April 13. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted probing attacks near Russian defenses in the vicinity of Robotyne (14km south of Orikhiv).[39] Russian forces continue to endanger the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as of April 13. Ukrainian state energy company Enerhoatom reported on April 13 that Russian forces continue to mine areas near the ZNPP and that one of the mines recently detonated near the control room of the fourth power unit at the facility.[40] Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts on April 13.[41] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City and Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.[42] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x Russia has now completed three layers of defensive zones across approximately 120km in Zaporizhzhia oblast, says @DefenceHQ It is in this direction that a Ukrainian offensive will likely happen, aiming to cut off the landbridge to Crimeahttps://t.co/ULVfqEkk2Y — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 12, 2023 China bought nearly one-tenth of Ukraine's arable farmland. x China approved the “provision of lethal aid” to Russia in its war in Ukraine earlier this year and planned to disguise military equipment as civilian items, according to a U.S. intercept of Russian intelligence revealed in leaked secret documents. https://t.co/26xa3VJj3X pic.twitter.com/noeiwnpeRA — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 13, 2023 x It was among a number of previously unreported documents that The Post obtained from a trove of images of classified files posted on a private server on the chat app Discord. https://t.co/zr0NCrh2Zb — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 13, 2023 x The report provides the most detailed evidence to date of what led to a flurry of public and private Biden administration warnings to Beijing beginning in late February. https://t.co/26xa3VJj3X — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 13, 2023 x Russian T-90 Tank From Ukraine Mysteriously Appears At U.S. Truck Stop The tank was apparently captured by Ukraine last fall, but it is unclear how or why it ended up in Lousiana.https://t.co/PHit8kn4n7 — Arthur O'le-Svern Dewit 🇺🇸 (@artosdewit) April 14, 2023 x disgruntled vaguely anti US government, incelish young white men is Tucker Carlson’s target audience. essentially teixeira. https://t.co/Ae9GAQ7oVZ — Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 14, 2023 x Russian sociologist Igor Eidman believes that Vladimir Putin's regime will not survive until the 2024 presidential election.https://t.co/hor8MFqmLc — The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) April 14, 2023 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/13/2163840/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-415-Stalemates-and-ceasefires-are-an-adversary-s-victory Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/