(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Update: Bakhmut has held Russia back for eight months, but is that enough? [1] ['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-15 Maybe Prigozhin’s letter last month was effective, because there are reports that much of the advances in Bakhmut over the last few weeks have come as Wagner Group is getting better support from regular Russian military. That combined firepower is reportedly giving Russian forces in the city a boost, perhaps explaining how they were able to move from the river to the railway station much more quickly than they captured blocks to the east and south. UK MOD update on Ukraine Once again, Russian forces are occupying the railway station at the center of Bakhmut, and it doesn’t seem to be “managed to get a few troops near before withdrawing” this time. Reports are that Russia has solidified its position to the east of the station and that Ukrainian forces are no longer fighting in the area across the railroad line. To the north of the station, those tracks still look to be the boundary between Ukrainian and Russian forces, with fire being exchanged across the rails. To the south, Russian forces are again reportedly pressing in to the T0504 highway. Russia now occupies over 80% of Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view. All the old familiar places that Russia and Ukraine traded back and forth for so long—the winery, the drywall factory, etc.—are off the map to the east. This is just the last western nub of the city. However, don’t expect Ukraine to vanish from the rest of Bakhmut overnight. Reports continue to indicate that fighting is going on block by block, house by house. Wagner and Russian Telegram are also filled with messages about Ukraine leaving behind traps and remote controlled explosives, so that when Russians seek shelter in buildings Ukrainian forces just abandoned, they get a nasty surprise. How many of these reports are true is hard to say, but the constant spread of these stories probably makes Russian forces very reluctant to step through any door in Bakhmut. x Luhansk detachment Border Guards at work in the area of Bakhmut💥 pic.twitter.com/qF2EZsBFmr — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 15, 2023 Russian forces are reportedly “flooding into” Bakhmut from the east and north. Additionally, as noted in the UK situational report, artillery fire in the city is intensifying. Earlier this week, there were reports that Ukraine had also sent more reserves to the area, however those reserves don’t seem to have entered the city proper—which appears to be a very good idea. Because Russian artillery is able to drop into that remaining area from three sides, making the what’s left or Ukrainian-controlled Bakhmut a very difficult place to be. Right now, it appears that Ukraine is conducting, and will continue to conduct, a “fighting retreat” from Bakhmut. Unless Russian forces are somehow exhausted—and at this point, we’re passed what seems like a thousand different experts using some variant on the phrase “almost culminated”—it looks like Ukraine will withdraw from Bakhmut around the end of the month. In a lengthy letter on Telegram, Prigozhin admits that the value of the city for Russia is extremely limited. The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Siversk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinivka, Druzhkivka and Chasiv Yar: settlements that are part of the so-called "Donbas ring" and form a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a short-term victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbas. Bakhmut the city, the citizens, the tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who have fought there, the thousands who have died, have held the attention of the Russian military for eight months. In that time, Ukraine has acquired new Western weapons and its forces have undergone extensive training. Most,of the images which the the Ukrainian military has published for the last few months is not of combat along the front lines, but large groups of Ukrainian forces drilling and training away from the lines. This has not slipped Prigozhi’s attention. The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200,000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have undergone two to three months of training and coordination, are ready to carry out combat missions. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 thousand to go on the offensive in various directions. His worry is that right now, with Russia focusing on Bakhmut and only Bakhmut, those Ukrainian forces could go essentially anywhere. It’s taken months for Russia to assemble the bulk of its force in one place, and even longer for Russia to put together something that seems like a unified push in that single location. In Bakhmut, but nowhere else, Russia seems to be able to exert its will. The opinion of analysts in Ukraine, and the Pentagon, is that Russia’s logistical and command structure currently can support only one significant offensive push. x Фортеця Бахмут тримається 🇺🇦🦾 pic.twitter.com/m2PxPAY7U2 — Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) April 15, 2023 Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut today Will Ukraine be able to move in some other region before the last forces give up that remaining toehold in Bakhmut? If Russia is able to claim victory in Bakhmut, and forces of both Russian military and Wagner disperse to other locations, will it be much more difficult for Ukraine to stage an effective counteroffensive? Will Russia be able to keep the tentative cooperation it’s built in the center of Bakhmut and use it to conduct a successful operation elsewhere, maybe in less than eight grinding months, and possibly without shedding 1,000 men a day? Yeah. Those are questions. That’s what those are. Unfortunately, they don’t come packaged with answers. Prigozhin’s letter also claims that lengthy battles like Bakhmut are part of a U.S. plot to draw out the war, causing the Russian people to grow disillusioned with the government and turn to more liberal politicians who will end the war and move Russia into greater alignment with the West. I wish we were that smart. Leopard 1, Leopard 2 If the Ukrainian counteroffensive is waiting on Western equipment, particularly main battle tanks, then there’s both good news and bad news. The good news is that more of those tanks are coming Real Soon Now. x Die ersten dänischen Leopard-1A5-Panzer sind bald lieferbereit für die #Ukraine. Mit dem amtierenden 🇩🇰 Verteidigungsminister @troelslundp (@Forsvarsmin) & Mitgliedern des @folketinget besuchten wir gestern #FFG in Flensburg, wo die Instandsetzung auf Hochtouren läuft. #dkpol https://t.co/TWwtY3OPmK pic.twitter.com/Sqd5EqXt1e — Susanne Hyldelund (@BotschafterDK) April 15, 2023 This is a Danish Leopard 1A5 which has reportedly finished the necessary repairs and updates needed before being sent to Ukraine. Denmark has promised to transfer a truly gratifying 100 of these tanks to Ukraine. Unfortunately, this is one of the first such tanks reported to be ready to roll, and even when it arrives in Ukraine, the welders are likely to go to work adding additional bits of armor and production from pesky drones dropping grenades. In other words: These tanks will definitely not be in Ukraine this month. Reports this morning indicate that Canada has increased the size of its crash program for teaching Ukrainian tankers to operate the Leopard 2. The eight Leopard 2 tanks sent by Canada are reportedly either already in Ukraine or near the border in Poland, but the presence of crews still being trained makes the idea that of these Leopard 2 crews are about to hit the front lines worrisome. There’s no doubt that Ukraine has assembled a significant, better trained, better rested force away from the front lines. It’s not clear if any of those forces, should they roll out in the next few weeks, would include units formed around Western main battle tanks. That didn’t work. That also didn’t work. The Ukrainian military has released this image of Russian tanks that were destroyed in a new series of failed attacks. You get two guesses as to the location, but the first one doesn’t count. Yes, it’s Vuhledar. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/15/2164012/-Ukraine-Update-Bakhmut-has-held-Russia-back-for-eight-months-but-is-that-enough Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/