(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Implications of US Leadership in AI for the Coming Combined Arms Offensive in Ukraine [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-18 AI Coming of Age Below is a link to Scott Pelley’s 60 Minutes segment (27 minutes long) from Sunday on Google's AI work and its roll out. After watching the robotic soccer game segment (and the innovative AI developed drop and pass off transfer play it aired) one can only imagine AI’s utility to the coming combined arms efforts of Ukraine to turn back the Russian invasion. https://youtu.be/880TBXMuzmk So to scratch that itch of curiosity that 60 minutes clip may engender, research “use of artificial intelligence in combined arms planning for ukraine” in Google Scholar. It turns up a variety of pertinent and expert articles published since 2022. Several might catch one’s eye. For example, “Application of Artificial Intelligence in Military Operations Planning” by Ferenc FAZEKAS highlights the early roll of Google in helping the US military and “. . . scrutinizes the potential usage of future Artificial Intelligence tools in the process of military operations planning. The main question is whether Artificial Intelligence in its current state can be applied in military operations planning. To answer this question the paper provides a short overview of military operations planning, a summary of military-related Artificial Intelligence research and existing solutions, then identify criteria and field of application for future Artificial Intelligence-driven tools. Analysing the topic gives some insight into this possible way of increasing the effectiveness of the planning groups, thus contributes to finding more effective solutions for emerging complex and comprehensive problems planning groups, …” https://tudasportal.uni-nke.hu/xmlui/static/pdfjs/web/viewer.html?file=https://tudasportal.uni-nke.hu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.12944/18966/03_fazekas_41-54_AARMS_2022_2.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y The paper notes: “[The military] is often a beneficiary of technologies developed for civilian usage, and AI can also be a good example for this. The military operations planning is feeding on information which is required to make a bold and executable plan. Therefore, the main areas for utilisation of AI are the information gathering activities, the so-called Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) and the Target Acquisition (TA). Expert systems have great use in logistic planning. When considering the actions required for the desired effects one must take into consideration the use of AI supported system in the fields of Cyberspace Operations and Information Operations. When the execution of the plan or the preparation for the execution starts, AI supported Command and Control systems may provide an invaluable contribution to the successful operation. The strengthening private sector was the new impulse AI needed. In the United States and the Western world influential players from the industry achieved new levels in research and progress that the military tried to leverage. Ethical concerns aside, some private companies cooperated with the United States military, notably Google, whose expertise was paramount in setting up the so-called Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Function Team of the Department of Defense, or shortly Project Maven in 2017. The aim of Project Maven was to develop an AI driven system that can help with the military intelligence efforts against terrorist and insurgent groups. The focal point was processing, exploiting and disseminating tactical footage and full-motion videos made by Unmanned Aerial Systems. It is able to detect and classify objects, and provide alerts for specific cases. Project Maven was a success as it helped identifying potential insurgents and terrorists during the Defeat-ISIS campaign in Iraq and Syria. Google soon abandoned the project due to the concerns of its employees regarding the ethics of AI’s military use. Several major United States private companies followed suit and stated that they restrain themselves from the promoting of AI’s military application.” By 2023 Google’s initial work on Project Maven seems foundational and companies that withdrew from the military space have been superseded. Today one can find articles like “Role of algorithmic warfare is a 'game-changer' on the battlefield” https://www.forces.net/technology/role-artificial-intelligence-game-changer-battlefield. It quotes analysts as saying "[AI] means warfare has become a very complex game of finding and hiding, and your electronic signature and the management of that signature has become paramount. That is something we're already cognisant of in the UK. Russian army discipline in the use of mobile phones, for example, has been very weak.” Everyone references the role of Palantir in advancing AI in military applications. One December 2022 article by David Ignatius in the Washington Post does an excellent job describing use of AI in the Ukraine battle space. https://techukraine.org/2022/12/21/the-washington-post-how-the-algorithm-tipped-the-balance-in-ukraine/ Likewise The Sunday Times describes how “Ukraine is outflanking Russia with ammunition from Big Tech- Artificial intelligence is changing modern conflict and this war is the front line” https://apple.news/Ap7Gs-aHZS8qU2oYLuAIZrw “Artificial intelligence developed by companies in the West has given Ukraine a technological edge over Russia, military experts said, turning the tide of the war. Artillery continues to dominate the war in a way that would be familiar to generals fighting battles centuries ago. However, the accuracy, speed and deadliness of Ukrainian strikes has dramatically increased thanks to software developed by Palantir, a US tech firm. . . “ Finally, there was a recent public domain study by The Homeland Defense & Security Information Analysis Center (HDIAC) that touches on various aspects of the AI systems in Ukraine. (HDIAC) is a DoD sponsored entity which provides expertise in eight technical focus areas: alternative energy; biometrics; chemical, biological, radiological, & nuclear (CBRN) defense; critical infrastructure protection; cultural studies; homeland defense & security; medical; and weapons of mass destruction. HDIAC is operated by SURVICE Engineering Company under contract FA8075-21-D-0001. A chief service of the HDIAC is free technical inquiry (TI) research, limited to 4 research hours per inquiry. This “Technological Lessons Learned From the Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine” report summarizes the research findings of one such inquiry jointly conducted by HDIAC. “ABSTRACT The Homeland Defense and Security Information Analysis Center (HDIAC) was asked to provide lessons learned in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. These lessons should apply to both the strategic and tactical levels of combat. The inquirer requested that the research focus on studies from organizations like Federally Funded Research and Development Centers. HDIAC identified lessons in five overarching areas—tactics, unmanned aerial systems/drones, cyber and information warfare, military materiel, and 2.0 TI Response The Homeland Defense and Security Information Analysis Center (HDIAC) began by searching all available FFRDC documentation. HDIAC also searched the unclassified Joint Lessons Learned Information System (JLLIS). Although results from JLLIS were limited, a document referencing several other studies was found. In reviewing these studies, preference was given to more recent studies that included lessons learned from the largest duration of the conflict. Early studies and reports were not necessarily discredited, but events in the conflict transpired in such a way that many early reports contained moot points. An open-source search was also conducted, and results were filtered to focus on technological lessons learned. The key findings of the research will be outlined first, followed by a listing of pertinent documents and brief summaries from each. 2.1 KEY FINDINGS 2.1.1 Tactical Lessons Learned • Unmanned aerial system (UAS)/drone use is rapidly growing and evolving. • Although tanks are sometimes considered obsolete in modern warfare, their failure in the current conflict can be attributed to factors like poor command and control, logistical failures, and a lack of combined arms attacks. These factors have made tanks vulnerable. • Rotary wing aircraft have been exceptionally vulnerable. • Russian propaganda worked better on Russian troops than on Ukrainians. Russian troops expected little resistance and to be treated as liberators. 2.1.2 UASs/Drones • The use of drones and other unmanned systems has been well documented, but the true effects and long-term sustainability may not be realized for some time. • Drones are primarily used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and offensive missions. • These were critical in the defense of Kyiv in the early months of the conflict. • Commercial drones played a major role, particularly DJI drones. 2.1.3 Cyber and Information Warfare • Although Russia possesses a robust cyber capability, they do not use it offensively the way it was predicted. • Russian cyber capabilities are used more for information operations and espionage. • Although Russia has experts in artificial intelligence (AI) many of these experts fled (although some returned) for fear of being pressed into service. • Sanctions may reduce Russia’s ability to purchase or manufacture new hardware, but efforts are already underway to circumvent the sanctions. • Open-source intelligence is critical, including social media posts. Russian soldiers are being targeted when they violate rules and use their cell phones. • Ukrainian political leaders used social media to communicate directly with their people. 2.1.4 Military Materiel • Tanks have proven their relevance in this theater. • Russia did not exercise solid combined arms tactics, leading to a lack of infantry to protect tanks. Coupled with poor logistics, this led many tank crews to abandon their tanks. • Military-grade drones are in short supply. Both sides are relying on impromptu use of civilian drones, which can be more easily replaced. However, they are not hardened, physically or electronically, for military use. • Rotary wing aircraft have been vulnerable. • Munitions are being used up quicker than anticipated, including the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System, javelins, stingers, and 155-mm artillery shells. 2.1.5 Space • Ukraine has made use of allies’ space-based ISR assets. • Commercial space will grow in importance.” Overall, iteration after AI real time iteration of the Ukrainian battle space and a planned combined arms push is obviously in the cards. Given battlefield dynamics it’s entirely believable that the exact when, where or how’s remain in some degree of flux. And there could be some surprising last minute augmentation of the Ukrainian armamentarium. Time will tell. But well targeted and intelligent it should be. The Thunder-road of Kharkiv’s liberation could be followed by a hoped for collapse of the Russian Army. We may already be seeing its initial dimensions of shaping the battle space such as strikes east of the Tokmak rail hub. The Russians should know this, face reality and urged to get out while the getting is good. More generally, it’s becoming abundantly clear that the power of this AI tech and access to its huge machine and data backbone is an important first question for policymakers. Eric Schmidt of Google wrote extensively about this as it relates to National Security in February. (See Eric Schmidt's chapter starting at about Pg 255 on the needed US National Security Commission response to AI.) https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/61656/9781000870817.pdf?sequence=1#page255. But AI can have adverse effects that must be guarded against. The White House after a year long effort recently released a “Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights” MAKING AUTOMATED SYSTEMS WORK FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/ Significantly, in the public policy realm, the insights of AI will also suggest paths for bipartisan, multilateral, and societal solutions to current challenges that could in some cases be dramatic. The final observation in the 60 Minutes interview of how we'll need to include all fields of knowledge, including social scientists and ethicists and their data bases in the machine learning and development of AI systems is a critical insight. What an exciting time for the younger generation to be in positions to learn about, use and influence the roll out of the amazing capabilities of AI and to utilize them for doing and optimizing good for all. My baby boom “me” “do your own thing” “greed is good” generation has been the most self-absorbed, narcissistic generation since the 1920’s, and fortunately the influence of it’s self-absorption is waining. (The doofus anti-woke mantra of Fox propaganda notwithstanding). While it’s ironic to include this observation in a piece on battlefield AI, it’s time to create systems coded to use the simplest definition of love, i.e. wanting what’s good for another. Italians remind each other with a particular way of saying “I love you” i.e.: Ti voglio bene , . It means “I want your good”—I want what’s best for you. Figuring out how to take out the “backing troops” forcing Russian conscripts to fight might be an example. I want your good may be the simplest (and perhaps an almost mandatory) command to include in forming the best AI systems. 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