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THE STATE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL LAW [1]

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Date: 2023-04-22  

Top diplomats from Europe and North America recently met in Japan to discuss the world's most intractable crises, including ways to end Russia's war in Ukraine, confront China's aggression toward Taiwan, and lure North Korea back to nuclear disarmament talks.

They will discuss the actions of both China and North Korea. But even before the group of seven foreign ministers’ - including Secretary of State Anthony Blinken - talks began, outside events threatened to overshadow the diplomacy, including questions about United States intelligence leaks that cast doubt over crucial alliances, and security worries after someone threw an explosive device at the Japanese leader during a campaign event.

Japan is eager to use a smoothly run G-7, which includes a host of gatherings on the greenhouse effect, finance, and other issues ahead of a leaders’ summit next month in Hiroshima, to pursue a stronger unified front against what Tokyo and other democracies see as Russian, Chinese, and North Korean aggression. Amid widespread skepticism that the United Nations, which is often paralyzed by the oversized power on the Security Council of Russia and China, can do anything about these issues, many will be watching to see what G-7 ministers from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, and the European Union might do.

The three-day talks will also see the first real test of the Biden administration's assertion that there has been minimal damage from the disclose of highly classified documents related to the war in Ukraine. Before traveling to Japan, Blinken in Hanoi said that he had heard no concerns from allies, but the revelations will soon be a factor at the upcoming G-7 meeting, the first major international diplomatic conference since the documents were discovered online and made public.

On the diplomatic front, the talks will be dominated by worries over the Russian leader’s threats to use tactical nuclear weapons as his forces struggle in Ukraine, China’s increasing belligerence toward Taiwan, and North Korea’s record-setting run of illicit weapons tests. Some observers expect that Japan and other nations might use the G-7 to announce an increase in aid to Ukraine. Though diplomats from Beijing won't be present in Japan, China's rapid military rise will also play a large part in discussions.

China recently sent planes and ships to conduct a simulated encirclement of Taiwan and has seen in recent years a rapid jump in its nuclear warheads, a tougher line on its claim to the South China Sea and increased comments from its leader, Xi Jinping, painting a scenario of impending confrontation. Japan, in response partly to China's rise, has made a major break from its self-defense-only post-World War II principles, as it works to acquire preemptive strike capabilities and cruise missiles to counter growing threats.

Diplomats will also be looking to find ways to restart diplomacy aimed at pressuring a hostile North Korea to return to disarmament negotiations. Since last year, North Korea has test-fired around 100 missiles that threaten South Korea and Japan. What will happen in the weeks and years to come? It’s hard to say, but observers of diplomacy can see the second Cold War at work.

On a positive note, maybe North Korea will go into a nuclear disarmament mode via diplomatic finesse. Perhaps this will pull the poor and totalitarian country out of the Chinese orbit. Maybe Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue to be a disaster, and the country will be forced to quit projecting power beyond its borders. Perhaps there’s a fear in the Chinese leadership over the fallout from an invasion of Taiwan and an invasion can be avoided. Remember, the United States has learned something from its mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan. Let’s hope a sensible internationalism emerges in the future where the world’s power centers agree to police the world and do not invade sovereign countries, a simple concept in international law. If we don’t see a sensible internationalism, then the future won’t be pretty.

Jason Sibert is the lead writer of the Peace Economy Project

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