(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Flash Droughts more frequent, not enough rice to feed Asia, Spanish farmers warn of crop failure. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-24 A view of pagodas on Louxingdun island that usually remain partially submerged under the water of Poyang Lake which is facing low water levels due to a regional drought in Lushan, Jiangxi province, China, August 24, 2022. “An empty stomach knows no morality.” Pierre-Joseph Proudhon Only fifteen short years ago, when there were one billion fewer of us, food riots erupted globally from price increases in rice. Though crops at the time were bountiful at harvest, the rapid population growth could not feed everyone hungry. The price of rice exploded from 300 USD per ton to 1200 in only a few months at the time. The inflation settled by the end of 2008 and marked the end of the crisis. But for the world's poor, the crisis was real as rice-producing nations held exporting the grain and kept the reserves to feed their populations. Rice provides nutrition for over fifty percent of the world's population, primarily in Asia. But the 2008 crisis in Asia magnified prices of all foodstuffs. From Dhaka, Bangkok, and Cairo to Port Au Prince, the desperately poor faced food shortages due to inflation they could not afford, and many rioted. In 2023 concerns have emerged that a significant rice shortage is imminent again, not due to inflation as in 2008 but brought about by soaring temperatures from the climate crisis, a fertilizer crisis, and the Ukraine war. The UN food program predicts up to two billion will be hungry this year. From Sara Schonhardt writing at E&E News in 2021. “Most of the [world’s] rice is currently grown in regions where existing temperature is already close to the optimum range for rice production,” the study states. “Therefore, any further rise in mean temperature or short episode of high temperature during sensitive growth stages, will be catastrophic.” While rice can grow in temperatures that reach 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), heat stress can impair the ability of its flowers to pollinate, the study noted. Temperatures above 35 C can significantly decrease yields. High nighttime temperatures also can impact productivity. One study found that each 1 C increase in night temperatures above 35 C leads to around a 10% decline in rice yields. It’s not just heat. The increased potential for flooding and drought also threaten production. So will rising seas that can inundate low-lying farmland with salt water. A paper by the International Rice Research Institute said rice was expected to be “the cultivated crop most vulnerable to future changing climates.” CNBC update in 2023. The articles I have read on rice yields all project stability in the market in 2024, which is interesting since 2024 will be yet another El Nino year, the warm phase of the climate system, when agriculture is most vulnerable to heat and drought. I hope the predictions are accurate, but counting on stability in the age of a climate emergency is a fool's errand. From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific – which consumes 90% of the world’s rice. The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions. And a deficit of this magnitude for one of the world’s most cultivated grains will hurt major importers, analysts told CNBC. “At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,” Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart said. “Given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households,” Hart said. The global shortfall for 2022/2023 would come in at 8.7 million tonnes, the report forecast. That would mark the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes, said Hart. x TERRIFYING WORLD DROUGHT OUTLOOK More drought with more of them flash drought As usual mitigation recommendations don't include emissions- only adaptation and monitoring. So what's the point of this great research?https://t.co/JdOIZvGLqR#drought #globalwarming #climatechange pic.twitter.com/d81Cq9JN5j — Peter D Carter (@PCarterClimate) April 18, 2023 Flash droughts are increasing and replacing the slow depletion process we are familiar with, to our detriment. How is adaption going to work in this scenario? How will wildlife survive with precious wetlands being drained for thirsty crops? From Lucie AUBOURG in Phys.org: "Both flash and slow droughts are increasing" as global temperatures rise, lead author Xing Yuan told AFP. But flash droughts are increasing more quickly "especially over Europe, North and East Asia, Sahel and west coast of South America," he said. The researcher, based out of China's Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), warned that the rapid onset of flash droughts gives humans little time to adapt, such as by diverting water resources or preparing for wildfires. "The vegetation do not have enough time to adapt either," he added. Yuan's team used climate modeling to forecast how flash droughts will change under several possible greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Even if emissions are moderate, flash droughts will continue to become more frequent across practically all regions. Under higher emissions scenarios, the trend would be more drastic. What Is a Flash Drought? An Earth Scientist Explains Many people are familiar with flash floods — torrents that develop quickly after heavy rainfall. But there's also such a thing as a flash drought, and these sudden, extreme dry spells are becoming a big concern for farmers and water utilities. Flash droughts start and intensify quickly, over periods of weeks to months, compared to years or decades for conventional droughts. Still, they can cause substantial economic damage, since communities have less time to prepare for the impacts of a rapidly evolving drought. In 2017, a flash drought in Montana and the Dakotas damaged crops and grasses that served as forage for cattle, causing $2.6 billion in agricultural losses. Even moist and humid areas can be battered by a flash drought. The Spanish National Meteorological Agency confirms that a historic heat wave will hit Spain, whose agriculture already has both knees on the ground. 35-40°C are expected in April.+16°C to standards.It is unprecedented in Spain.It is unprecedented in Europe. Drought will cause crop failures in Spain, farmers warn MADRID (AP) — Drought now affects 60% of the Spanish countryside, with crops like wheat and barley likely to fail entirely in four regions, the main Spanish farmers’ association said on Thursday. Spain’s long-term drought is causing “irreversible losses” to more than 3.5 million hectares of crops, the Coordinator of Farmers’ and Ranchers’ Organizations (COAG in its Spanish acronym) said in a new report. Some cereals need to be “written off” in the prime growing regions of Andalusia, Castilla La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia, and are likely to be lost in the driest areas of three other regions, according to the report. In the wine-growing region of La Rioja, farmers were in the exceptional situation of “having to irrigate cereals ... when normally they are never watered,” the association said. Nuts and vineyards are also struggling, and olives will be badly affected if rain does not arrive in the next few weeks, the report stated. The lack of available water was further impacting the ability of farmers to irrigate corn, sunflowers, rice and cotton, likely leading to reduced sowing of these crops over the summer, it added. The biodiversity crisis is directly linked to global heating. Where I come from, we call this collapse. This will also be the third consecutive season without honey for beekeepers, as bees lack vegetation and flowers to feed from in the mountains due to a shortage of water. Not one of these stories has received much attention from the US Media. For further reading: x Coto Donana internationally important wetland is being sucked dry by #farming soft fruit. Lodger just bought these. Trays the same size on sale in Spanish supermarkets for 3.99E. #NotFoodSecirity #EcologicalCrisis ... https://t.co/3rQyWpaRYS pic.twitter.com/6lLYGom0Dg — Sue Everett (@suesustainable) April 17, 2023 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/24/2164913/-Flash-Droughts-more-frequent-not-enough-rice-to-feed-Asia-Spanish-farmers-warn-of-crop-failure Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/