(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Polling, esp when pushing voters, misses a lot. Talking to Voters Early lets us understand in AZ... [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-24 The Arizona Senate race next year may prove to be the most difficult challenge Democrats face this cycle. Even with Joe Manchin’s in West Virginia (and the Montana and Ohio senate races). There are so many unknowns at this point, whereas the only real unknown in West Virginia is whether or not Sen. Manchin decides to run for re-election. Hope Springs from Field PAC, though, has been knocking on doors in Arizona for more than a year, and there is some data we are collecting that hints at some of these unknowns. We use an Issues Survey at the core of our efforts in Early Organizing in Senate and Electoral College Swing States. There are (four) questions where we are hearing voter responses or concerns about the newly-unaffiliated Sinema: the second and third questions, the seventh question (even though it is not designed to prompt that kind of response) and the 10th, where we ask voters about Favorability. We also ask about voter impressions of the likely Democratic nominee, Ruben Gallego. This diary is prompted, though, by the Morning Consult poll about Kyrsten Sinema, since we see a more distinct trend in her favorability ratings from the voters we have been talking to in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson. More to the point, there are other, significant signs in our data that is not as favorable to the waffling senator as that suggested by Morning Consult. Our results are not really comparable to the MornCon poll. We don’t knock on doors of Republican households. It seems (unintentionally) that most of the doors we knock on are unaffiliated voters, although fairly close to 50-50 (Democrats to Unaffiliated). But we aren’t just getting toplines, and that’s what makes this data, derived from voters at their doors, so valuable. In fact, even Sinema backers understood the value of the data; they requested access to it last year, before she declared herself an “independent” voter. (They probably didn’t get the response they were looking for; all Democrats who use VAN get access to this data after the primary — Kyrsten Sinema lost access to VAN in January.) But the wording used in our Issues Survey is the similar. Both ask about Approval and Disapproval with regards to Sinema. There are two dramatic differences between what we are finding at the doors and what MornCon found: our data is raw (eg, we include “Don’t know/No opinion responses) and our we are talking face to face with voters. Perhaps most important, we ask about candidate approval after asking our (open-ended) issues questions. This undoubtedly effects voter responses to the candidate approval questions. Sinema Approval (blue) and Disapproval #s at the door And it is from the open-ended issues questions that we are finding the most interesting responses to the Sinema question from 2114 Democratic and unaffiliated voters. We see a lot more variation in our weekly numbers than MornCon is finding in their quarterly surveys. And even though Morning Consult has higher Disapproval numbers among Democrats or “Independents,” our Approval numbers are a lot, lot lower than their’s. Of course, they are calling people statewide, and we are focused on the swingy suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson. Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors for the second consecutive year in Arizona in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters in a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it). It is when you see the Top 3 Issues from our weekly canvasses that should worry the sitting senator. 41 voters (out of the 2114 we have talked to in March and April) named Sinema as their most urgent issue facing the country. Another 35 voters brought up her name as the most urgent issue facing Arizona. 86 voters voters brought up her name, then, in an open-ended question about the most urgent issue facing them — instead of the price of gas or groceries, tightening credit and its effect on housing, or the economy, etc. These are unusual responses, and we don’t see this in any other state we have or are canvassing. But there is more! 13 other voters mentioned Sinema in response to the query, “Do you have any concerns about the upcoming elections.” Kyrsten Sinema may come in third (independent candidates don’t tend to do well in U.S. elections), but she is definitely a factor in how Arizonans are thinking about the 2024 elections. In fact, this is exactly what Ruben Gallego’s polling memo says: In any likely three-way matchup among Sinema, Gallego and whatever Republican candidate wins their primary, Sinema appears to have virtually no chance of winning. If the GOP candidate is election denier Kari Lake, for example, the new PPP survey shows that Gallego would pull in 42 percent of the vote, Lake 35 percent, and Sinema just 14 percent. The numbers are similar if you plug Jim Lamon or Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in as the Republican candidate. An earlier poll found the same thing. Given the hardening of the partisan electorate, Sinema’s leaving the Democratic Party may be a blessing in disguise. Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year. By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/24/2165567/-Polling-Sinema Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/