(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 426: A UAF advance in the Kherson area could even cut the land corridor [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-24 A Ukrainian advance in the area could, in the future, even cut the land corridor to Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014. Russian forces 'forcibly evacuating' civilians in Kherson, says Ukraine The claim cannot be verified, but it comes amid an apparent increase in Ukrainian military activity in the south of the country which some analysts have interpreted as a potential precursor to Kyiv’s long anticipated counter-offensive. “I have information that the evacuation starts today [Sunday] with an excuse of protecting civilians from the consequences of heavy fighting in the area,” Oleksandr Samoylenko, the Ukrainian head of Kherson’s regional council, said. Russian troops were “trying to steal as much as they can” as they withdrew, he added. Ukrainian authorities say Russian forces are “forcibly evacuating” civilians in the area of the Kherson region that they still occupy, a day after it was claimed Ukrainian forces had established a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River. But if the reports that Ukraine has secured a bridgehead on the east bank are correct, it could be significant in helping Kyiv drive Russian troops back. BBC Ukraine says its military sources have reported a "certain movement across [the] Dnipro" near Kherson city. The US-based Institute for the Study of War says Russian military bloggers have posted "enough geolocated footage and text reports to confirm" the advance. The region is partially Russian-held and crossing the river could be significant in future offensives. Ukrainian troops have set up positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River in southern Kherson region, reports say. That doesn’t even account for the reaction of America’s allies, mainly in Europe, who may see a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia as a more attractive option if Kyiv can’t prove victory is around the corner. One side will say that Ukraine’s advances would’ve worked had the administration given Kyiv everything it asked for, namely longer-range missiles, fighter jets and more air defenses. The other side, administration officials worry, will claim Ukraine’s shortcoming proves it can’t force Russia out of its territory completely. Publicly, President Joe Biden’s team has offered unwavering support for Ukraine, pledging to load it up with weapons and economic aid for “as long as it takes.” But, if the impending fighting season yields limited gains, administration officials have expressed privately they fear being faced with a two-headed monster attacking it from the hawkish and dovish ends of the spectrum. Ukraine’s ever-imminent counteroffensive will attempt to retake Russian-seized territory most likely in the east and south, though for operational reasons no senior officials from Kyiv have detailed specifics. The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too. ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 24 16:4 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 new additions by @Rebel44CZ (11:7 after removal of duplicates and including older losses) VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.2x losses to date ➡ 2.8x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡ 4.3x 30-day average ⬇ 📈 https://t.co/K2Af344XCU pic.twitter.com/MIJtlkCnLv In the temporarily occupied areas, Russian invaders continue using civil infrastructure to meet their own needs. In the Luhansk region’s Holubivka, Russian occupiers set up a medical aid post in a local school. In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Russian occupiers continue holding defense. The enemy shelled the Donetsk region’s Novosilka and Novopil; the Zaporizhzhia region’s Olhivske, Malynivka, Chervone, Charivne and Orikhiv; and the city of Kherson. In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian troops did not conduct offensive actions. The enemy opened fire on the Donetsk region’s Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka and Komar. In the Avdiivka direction, Russian occupiers conducted offensive actions near the Donetsk region’s Novokalynove, Stepove and Pervomaiske, but had no success. In the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops continue conducting offensive actions. Heavy battles are raging for the city of Bakhmut. Russian invaders conducted unsuccessful offensive actions towards Novomarkove and Khromove. In the Lyman direction, Russian occupiers did not conduct offensive actions. The enemy launched artillery strikes on the Luhansk region’s Makiivka, Nevske, Dibrova and Bilohorivka; the Donetsk region’s Torske, Verkhniokamianske, Spirne and Pereizne. In the Kupiansk direction, Russian invaders continue hardening positions in certain areas. The enemy launched artillery and mortar strikes on the Kharkiv region’s Topoli, Kamianka, Krasne Pershe, Fyholivka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Zapadne and Kyslivka; the Luhansk region’s Novoselivske. Over the past day, Russian troops have opened fire on the Chernihiv region’s Hremiach; the Sumy region’s Kucherivka, Shalyhyne, Iskryskivshchyna and Popivka; the Kharkiv region’s Okip, Mali Prokhody, Strilecha, Neskuchne, Hatyshche, Budarky and Chuhunivka. In the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, Russia is maintaining military presence in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions, bordering with Ukraine. In the Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remained rather unchanged. No enemy offensive groupings were detected. Russian troops are focusing efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka directions. Ukraine’s Defense Forces repelled over 30 enemy attacks there. The fiercest battles continue for the Donetsk region’s Bakhmut and Marinka. ⚡️Lavrov lashes out at West in UN Security Council speech in New York. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addressed the UN Security Council in New York on April 24 during the Russian Federation's controversial presidency of the body. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images pic.twitter.com/H5OwzvfhiL x Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces : Ukrainian troops defend and counterattack in Bakhmut https://t.co/cUr5oJk6LU — Ukraine News🇺🇦 (@UaNews_online) April 24, 2023 Ukrainian troops are actively counterattacking in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, said the commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces,Colonel General, Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi visited the Ukrainian military came to the Ukrainian positions in Lyman and Bakhmut to meet with the commanders and analyze the situation on the ground. According to him, the Russians made a number of unsuccessful attempts to break through the defenses in the direction of Lyman, as a result of which they suffered significant losses and were forced to regroup. Syrskyi said that the situation remains tense in Bakhmut. Heavy fighting continues. The Russians made several unsuccessful attempts to advance in some suburban areas. "However, the enemy does not abandon the goal of encircling Bakhmut and uses all possible forces and means for this, up to the total destruction of the city. Our fighters are not only performing defensive actions in Bakhmut, but also actively counterattacking," the General said. Syrskyi added that the defense of Bakhmut gave Ukraine the opportunity to hold back the Russian offensive for several months, prevent the Russians from increasing the front, destroy Russia’s best units and gain time. www.uawire.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Ukrainian forces have made marginal gains south of Kreminna as of April 24. Geolocated footage posted on April 24 shows that Ukrainian forces have made marginal advances northeast of Verkhnokamianske (18km south of Kreminna) and southeast of Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) on unspecified dates.[28] A Russian milblogger claimed on April 24 that Ukrainian forces recaptured unspecified positions near Bilohorivka and that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna) and Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).[29] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces did not conduct offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on April 23 and 24.[30] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on April 24 that Russian forces are conducting unsuccessful assaults in the Lyman direction, however.[31] Ukrainian Severodonetsk Raion Military Administration Head Roman Vlasenko reported on April 23 that Russian forces are building fortifications around Severodonetsk and other large cities and roads in occupied Luhansk Oblast.[32] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and did not make any confirmed territorial gains in the city on April 23 and 24. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued attacking in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Novomarkove (12km northwest of Bakhmut), Hryhorivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut), Khromove (immediately northwest of Bakhmut), and Ivanivske (immediately southwest of Bakhmut) on April 23 and 24.[36] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on April 23 that Wagner Group forces captured two unspecified blocks in western Bakhmut.[37] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue fighting to push Russian forces back from the Khromove-Chasiv Yar road, along which one milblogger claimed Wagner forces advanced, and that Russian forces conducted positional battles northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut).[38] The milbloggers also claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced in northern and western Bakhmut, including near the rail station, on April 23 and 24.[39] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner’s job is to wear down Ukrainian forces ahead of a possible counteroffensive, as the fall of Bakhmut will not change Russia’s operational situation on the Donetsk Oblast axis.[40] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Some Russian sources denied claims from other Russian milbloggers that Ukrainian forces established enduring positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo claimed on April 23 that Ukrainian forces have not established a bridgehead across the Dnipro River, instead claiming that Ukrainian forces only conduct periodic raids which Russian forces repel.[49] Saldo emphasized his claim that Russian forces are in full control of east bank Kherson Oblast. Some prominent, including Kremlin-affiliated, Russian milbloggers also denied the presence of a Ukrainian bridgehead across the Dnipro River on April 24.[50] Other milbloggers criticized Saldo for falsely portraying the operational situation in Kherson Oblast to Russian authorities, criticisms reminiscent of those levied after the fall of Kherson City in November 2022.[51] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to establish a foothold on Velyki Potemkin Island (immediately southwest of Kherson City).[52] ISW does not assess that Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead across the Dnipro River as of April 24. ISW assessed on April 22 that Ukrainian forces have established an enduring presence in certain areas of east bank Kherson Oblast but not a bridgehead.[53] www.understandingwar.org/... 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